To The Moon

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  Brace for the storm/opportunity on December 23. 

Potential event: Nasdaq-100 rebalancing not fully priced in. Price dips into 20s and rebound in next few days.

Short-term bearish on December 23, but reduced FUD post-rebalancing & long-term bullish fundamentals and corporate governance. 

See below my estimates.

--Prediction--

1. Moderate Selloff and Bounce (55%): $28.50–$30.00

Buyers step in around $28.86. Forced selling creates a dip, but support holds.

Key Indicators: High volume near $28.86. Bullish reversal candlestick patterns.

2. Extended Selloff ( 30%): $25.00–$28.50

Selling overwhelms buyers. Price breaks key support levels.

Key Indicators: Increased selling volume without significant rebounds at $28.86. Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, Williams %R) at oversold territory.

3. Severe Panic Drop (12%): $22.00–$25.00

A combination of panic selling and cascading stop-loss triggers.

Key Indicators: Heavy, sustained volume with no signs of support. Broader market weakness or negative macroeconomic news.

4. Minimal Impact/Recovery (3%): $31.00–$34.00

Strong buyers quickly absorb liquidity, minimizing downside.

Key Indicators: Minimal price movement or volume spikes during key selling periods (e.g., pre-market or near the market close on December 23).

--Assumptions--

Forced Selling Volume: ~12–13 million shares.

- QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): ~11.37 million shares.

- Other Index Funds (QTEC, IGM, etc.): Likely a combined ~1–2 million shares.

Average Daily Trading Volume (ADTV): ~2.4 million shares.

Forced selling represents ~500% of the ADTV, suggesting significant downward pressure unless buyers step in aggressively.

Current Price: ~$31.59