Analyst Explains What Worries Him About Nvidia (NVDA) Heading Into 2025
Howard Chan from Kurv Investment Management said while talking to Schwab Network in a recent program that Wall Street’s high expectations with NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) are a concern for him despite the company being a “very strong” player in the AI infrastructure market.
“We think they are a very strong player and maybe a dominant player in the infrastructure space. But, you know, I have to mention that they had a pretty good earnings report this past quarter. However, the market was disappointed, and that’s what we’re worried about because we think the expectations may be too high.”
Chan is right. Simply beating earnings estimates is not enough for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) anymore, and the impact of high expectations will continue to weigh on the stock as growth cools.
Nvidia’s forward P/E ratio for the fiscal year ending January 2026 is around 31. An EPS surprise of 8.5% was not able to help the stock. A similar trend occurred following the second-quarter earnings after a 5.6% EPS surprise. It’s difficult to see Nvidia maintaining a mid-70s gross margin by the end of 2026. Over the last two quarters, Nvidia has already reported a drop in its gross margin from 78% to 74.5%.
Then there’s competition. Amazon (AMZN) recently disclosed its Trainium 3 chip, which is set to be released by the end of 2025. The chip is expected to be twice as fast with 40% more power efficiency than the previous generation, manufactured on TSMC’s (TSM) cutting-edge N3 technology. Reportedly, technology giant Apple (AAPL) will be a consumer of Amazon’s new silicon.
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