To The Moon

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ stock is drawing attention as the Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery company prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, February 19. So far, Grab stock has gained 16% in February.

Three Things to Watch Before Earnings Report:

Q4 Revenue is Expected to Increase 16% YoY

According to Bloomberg’s unanimous expectations, Grab to post revenue of $757.8 million for 2024Q4, up around 16% YoY; EPS is estimated to be USD-<0.01, swings to loss YoY.

Grab's upgraded 2024 guidance calls for a 2-8% sequential increase in group adjusted Ebitda in 4Q, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of sustained growth, anchored by low-to mid-single-digit revenue gains. The mobility segment could remain the primary profit driver amid rising adoption of premium offerings such as advance bookings, premium fleets and paid priority services.

Source: Grab's third quarter press release

GoTo Denies Merger Talks with Grab

Bloomberg previously reported that Grab was exploring an acquisition of GoTo in a deal valued at over $7 billion.

However, Indonesian tech giant GoTo has dismissed rumors of a potential merger with Grab Holdings. The speculation, which has surfaced repeatedly in recent years, remains unfounded, the company clarified.

Singapore Announces Corporate Income Tax Rebate

Shares of $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ are moving 8% higher on Tuesday after Singapore Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said companies will receive a 50% corporate income tax rebate in 2025. Eligible companies will also receive a cash grant of S$2,000, or $1,500, even if they are not profitable. The total benefit that a company can receive will be capped at S$40,000.

Tax incentives will also be rolled out for fund managers that “invest substantially” in Singapore-listed equities. More details will be shared by the review group soon, said PM Wong.

Options Strategies to Trade Grab’s Earnings:

Given GRAB’s elevated implied volatility (104.60%) and high call/put ratio (7.29), earnings are likely to trigger significant price swings. Below are actionable strategies based on real-time options data:

1. Bull Put Spread (Cautiously Bullish)

Structure: $GRAB Vertical 250228 4.5P/5.0P$

• Sell $5.0 Put

• Buy $4.5 Put

  Net Credit: $0.20 per spread
  Max Profit: $0.20 (if GRAB ≥ $5.0)
  Max Loss: $0.30 (if GRAB ≤ $4.5)

  Source: Tiger Trade App

  Rationale:

  • Benefits if GRAB holds above $5.0 post-earnings.

  • Defined risk with high probability of profit (~47%).

2. Bear Call Spread (Bearish Hedge)

Structure: $GRAB Vertical 250228 5.5C/6.0C$

• Sell $5.5 Call

• Buy $6.0 Call

  Net Credit: $0.125 per spread
  Max Profit: $0.125 (if GRAB ≤ $5.5)
  Max Loss: $0.375 (if GRAB ≥ $6.0)

  

  Rationale:

  • Profits if GRAB stays below $5.5.

  • Mitigates downside risk with capped losses.

Key Risks to Monitor

1. IV Crush: Post-earnings, IV could drop sharply, eroding option premiums even if the stock moves.

2. Liquidity Gaps: Low open interest in some strikes (e.g., $7.5+ puts) may widen bid-ask spreads.

3. Earnings Surprise: GRAB’s merger talks and earnings results add fundamental uncertainty.