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Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?

阿里巴巴将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。

Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?

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This financial report is regarded by Morgan Stanley as \"the first catalyst to examine China's AI investment trend.\" Currently, the market's optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to heat up. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this round of AI-driven rise in Chinese technology stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba is regarded as \"more favorable in terms of thematic investment in China's generative AI development at this stage due to its layout in the AI field. stock\".<h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raise expectations, and valuation recovery can be expected</h2>A number of institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices on Ali. Jefferies believes that the valuation of China's Internet is low, which is at a discount to overseas peers. The target price of Alibaba's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has risen from US $150 and HK $145 to US $156 and HK $151 respectively. UBS predicted in its financial report forecast that Ali's third-quarter revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 274.557 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations, but emphasized that if the macro economy stabilizes and competition slows down, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, and the target price of US $140 (corresponding to Hong Kong stocks 136 Hong Kong dollars) implies a PE of 18 times in fiscal year 2026.<h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Option Market: A Game under High Volatility Expectations</h2>As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock price was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, which is significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting the market's bet on the violent fluctuation of stock prices after the financial report. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, $120 Call and $105 Put have the largest open interest, becoming the core points of the long-short game.<h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings?</h2>In response to the Ali financial report incident, you can refer to the following option strategies:<h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Sell Put (Cash-Secured Put), or you can steadily gain premium</h3><ul style=\"\"><li>Construction method: Sell a Put option that expires on March 21 and has an exercise price of US $110, and receive about US $1.5 per share from premium (premium revenue of US $150 per contract).<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></li><li>Critical parameters<ul style=\"\"><li>earning: If the stock price is always higher than $110, premium becomes net income, and the annualized income from selling can reach about 13.66%.</li><li>Risk: If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at a price of $110, reserve a margin of about $11,000/contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110-1.5).</li></ul></li><li>Applicable scenarios: Applicable to being optimistic about the long-term value of Alibaba. At the same time, by March 21, Alibaba's U.S. stock price will not fall below $110.</li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet that the stock price will fluctuate by more than ± 10% after the financial report</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current Stock Price and Volatility Target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li>Latest Stock Price: US $126.9 (2025-02-19)</li><li>Volatility Target：±10% →Upside Target $139.59，Downside Target $114.21</li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy choice: Long Strangle combination</h4>Logic: By buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put) at the same time, bet on the stock price to break through in either direction, which is suitable for scenarios with high volatility expectations and unclear direction.<h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Bundle 250228 120P/133C $</a><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Contract direction</td><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Exercise price (USD)</td><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Expiry date</td><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Latest Price (USD)</td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\">Call Option</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">133.0</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">2025-02-28</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">4.05</td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\">Put Option (Put)</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">120.0</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">2025-02-28</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">2.75</td></tr></tbody></table>Total strategy cost：4.05 + 2.75 =$6.8/share Break-even point：<ul style=\"\"><li>Upstream：133.0 + 6.8 =$139.8</li><li>downward：120.0-6.8 =$113.2</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Analysis of key parameters</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li>Volatility sensitivity：<ul style=\"\"><li>The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If the volatility falls after the financial report, the time value of the option may decay rapidly, so we need to pay attention to the impact of IV changes on the strategy.</li></ul></li><li>Delta and Probability：<ul style=\"\"><li>The call option Delta = 0.381, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring above $133 is about 38.1%.</li><li>Delta of the put option =-0.289, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring below $120 is about 28.9%.</li></ul></li><li>Liquidity risk：<ul style=\"\"><li>The trading volume of US $133 Call is low (194 lots), so we need to be wary of the widening bid-ask spread caused by insufficient liquidity.</li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li>If the stock price quickly breaks through a certain direction after the financial report, the position can be closed immediately to lock in profits.</li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li>Maximum loss: Limited to premium ($6.8/share).</li><li>Volatility risk: A drop in IV may cause the strategy to lose money if it fails to meet expectations.</li><li>Liquidity risk: Low volume contracts may be difficult to close positions in time.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Option Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOption Witch | Countdown to Alibaba's financial report, how to use US stock options strategy to bet on performance?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n期权女巫 \n2025-02-19 13:45\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The third quarter results of fiscal year 2025 will be announced on February 20. This financial report is regarded by Morgan Stanley as \"the first catalyst to examine China's AI investment trend.\" Currently, the market's optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to heat up. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that this round of AI-driven rise in Chinese technology stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba is regarded as \"more favorable in terms of thematic investment in China's generative AI development at this stage due to its layout in the AI field. stock\".<h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raise expectations, and valuation recovery can be expected</h2>A number of institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices on Ali. Jefferies believes that the valuation of China's Internet is low, which is at a discount to overseas peers. The target price of Alibaba's US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has risen from US $150 and HK $145 to US $156 and HK $151 respectively. UBS predicted in its financial report forecast that Ali's third-quarter revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 274.557 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations, but emphasized that if the macro economy stabilizes and competition slows down, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, and the target price of US $140 (corresponding to Hong Kong stocks 136 Hong Kong dollars) implies a PE of 18 times in fiscal year 2026.<h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Option Market: A Game under High Volatility Expectations</h2>As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock price was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, which is significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting the market's bet on the violent fluctuation of stock prices after the financial report. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, $120 Call and $105 Put have the largest open interest, becoming the core points of the long-short game.<h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings?</h2>In response to the Ali financial report incident, you can refer to the following option strategies:<h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Sell Put (Cash-Secured Put), or you can steadily gain premium</h3><ul style=\"\"><li>Construction method: Sell a Put option that expires on March 21 and has an exercise price of US $110, and receive about US $1.5 per share from premium (premium revenue of US $150 per contract).<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></li><li>Critical parameters<ul style=\"\"><li>earning: If the stock price is always higher than $110, premium becomes net income, and the annualized income from selling can reach about 13.66%.</li><li>Risk: If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at a price of $110, reserve a margin of about $11,000/contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110-1.5).</li></ul></li><li>Applicable scenarios: Applicable to being optimistic about the long-term value of Alibaba. At the same time, by March 21, Alibaba's U.S. stock price will not fall below $110.</li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet that the stock price will fluctuate by more than ± 10% after the financial report</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current Stock Price and Volatility Target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li>Latest Stock Price: US $126.9 (2025-02-19)</li><li>Volatility Target：±10% →Upside Target $139.59，Downside Target $114.21</li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy choice: Long Strangle combination</h4>Logic: By buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put) at the same time, bet on the stock price to break through in either direction, which is suitable for scenarios with high volatility expectations and unclear direction.<h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Bundle 250228 120P/133C $</a><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Contract direction</td><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Exercise price (USD)</td><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Expiry date</td><td style=\"text-align:left;\">Latest Price (USD)</td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\">Call Option</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">133.0</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">2025-02-28</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">4.05</td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\">Put Option (Put)</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">120.0</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">2025-02-28</td><td style=\"text-align:center;\">2.75</td></tr></tbody></table>Total strategy cost：4.05 + 2.75 =$6.8/share Break-even point：<ul style=\"\"><li>Upstream：133.0 + 6.8 =$139.8</li><li>downward：120.0-6.8 =$113.2</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Analysis of key parameters</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li>Volatility sensitivity：<ul style=\"\"><li>The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If the volatility falls after the financial report, the time value of the option may decay rapidly, so we need to pay attention to the impact of IV changes on the strategy.</li></ul></li><li>Delta and Probability：<ul style=\"\"><li>The call option Delta = 0.381, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring above $133 is about 38.1%.</li><li>Delta of the put option =-0.289, which implies that the probability of the stock price expiring below $120 is about 28.9%.</li></ul></li><li>Liquidity risk：<ul style=\"\"><li>The trading volume of US $133 Call is low (194 lots), so we need to be wary of the widening bid-ask spread caused by insufficient liquidity.</li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li>If the stock price quickly breaks through a certain direction after the financial report, the position can be closed immediately to lock in profits.</li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li>Maximum loss: Limited to premium ($6.8/share).</li><li>Volatility risk: A drop in IV may cause the strategy to lose money if it fails to meet expectations.</li><li>Liquidity risk: Low volume contracts may be difficult to close positions in time.</li></ul></body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143671283","content_text":"阿里巴巴 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。期权策略：如何押注财报行情？针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金构建方式：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌关键参数收益：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。风险：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。适用场景：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动当前股价与波动目标最新股价：126.9美元（2025-02-19）波动目标：±10% → 上行目标139.59美元，下行目标114.21美元策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）逻辑：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。具体合约选择与成本分析 ‌‌$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  ‌合约方向行权价（美元）到期日最新价格（美元）看涨期权（Call）133.02025-02-284.05看跌期权（Put）120.02025-02-282.75策略总成本：4.05 + 2.75 = 6.8美元/股盈亏平衡点：上行：133.0 + 6.8 = 139.8美元下行：120.0 - 6.8 = 113.2美元关键参数解析波动率敏感性：当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。Delta与概率：看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。流动性风险：133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。风险提示最大亏损：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。波动率风险：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。流动性风险：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":49,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}