To The Moon

Intel Corporation ( $Intel(INTC)$ ), once the undisputed king of the semiconductor world, has faced persistent headwinds over the past decade. From missed product timelines to losing technological leadership to rivals like AMD and Nvidia, the company has struggled to reclaim its former dominance. However, on March 18, 2025, Intel boldly steps by appointing Lip-Bu Tan as its new Chief Executive Officer. In the immediate aftermath, Intel’s stock surged 16%, signaling renewed investor optimism. But the critical question remains—can Tan lead Intel to a sustainable comeback, or will this be yet another temporary market rally?

Market Reaction: Investor Euphoria vs. Structural Reality

1. Short-term Market Optimism

As the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems, Tan transformed it into a $40 billion leader in chip design software, earning a reputation as a semiconductor industry veteran. His $25 million personal investment in Intel stock and a $69 million pay package, contingent on performance, underscore his commitment and the board’s high expectations.

The market’s enthusiastic response to the leadership shake-up is clear. Intel’s stock spiked to $24.05, breaking above key short-term moving averages such as the MA20 and MA50 on a notable surge in volume. Historically, leadership transitions or M&A rumors have triggered similar rallies for Intel—only to be followed by profit-taking and corrections. Analysts, such as Bank of America, have upgraded Intel’s rating to “Hold” with a $25 target, reflecting confidence in Tan’s ability to stabilize the company.

The sharp increase in trading volume suggests that not only retail traders but also institutional investors are reacting positively to Tan’s appointment. Yet, Intel still faces overhead technical resistance at the $27.50 level (January’s peak) and longer-term resistance near $30.

2. Technical Landscape

• RSI: Currently rising, but sitting around 59—signaling positive momentum without yet being overbought.

• MACD: The bullish crossover indicates potential upside, but lacks significant divergence for now.

• CCI: Trending higher into bullish territory, further supporting the case for short-term gains.

While technically bullish, Intel’s price action remains confined within a larger sideways range, underscoring investor caution around longer-term fundamentals.

Challenges Intel Must Overcome

Intel’s recent struggles are multifaceted.

• The company has lagged in the artificial intelligence (AI) market, where Nvidia’s GPUs dominate, while its Gaudi AI chips underperformed, generating only $500 million against a $2 billion target in 2024.

• The foundry division, a cornerstone of Intel’s IDM 2.0 strategy, reported a staggering $5.8 billion operating loss in 2024, with break-even delayed until 2027. Manufacturing delays, such as the Ohio factory now slated for 2030, and reliance on TSMC for advanced nodes further erode its competitive edge.

• Financially, Intel’s market cap dipped below $100 billion, a shadow of its $500 billion peak, with 2024 revenue falling 2.1% to $53.1 billion. Strategic indecision—whether to remain an integrated manufacturer or pivot to a fabless model—coupled with a talent drain and a tarnished industry reputation, compounds these issues.

• Cultural Transformation:

  Intel’s internal culture, often described as slow and risk-averse, has historically stifled its agility. Tan’s appointment signals that the board seeks not just operational fixes, but a deeper cultural reset—encouraging bolder innovation and faster decision-making.

Can Tan Turn Intel Around?

Tan’s leadership offers both promise and limitations. His industry ties—spanning TSMC, Nvidia, and venture capital—could facilitate partnerships, such as a rumored joint venture with TSMC to manage Intel’s foundry. His initial statements emphasize building on Gelsinger’s IDM 2.0 plan, focusing on momentum areas like client computing and foundry competitiveness, while fostering innovation. However, the scale of Intel’s challenges—competing with Nvidia’s $3 trillion valuation, turning around a loss-making foundry, and executing delayed factory projects—requires years of flawless execution. Tan’s pragmatism and reputation may stabilize Intel, potentially lifting its market cap to $150-$200 billion, but a full return to its former glory seems unlikely without a transformative breakthrough.

Can Intel Reach $30 in This Cycle?

The chart suggests that $27.50 is a significant technical resistance level, followed by psychological resistance at $30. For Intel to sustainably breach this range, Tan will need to:

• Deliver a clear and actionable turnaround plan early in his tenure.

• Announce cost-efficiency measures and possibly restructure parts of the foundry business.

• Outline an aggressive AI and high-performance computing (HPC) strategy.

• Potentially execute M&A activity to accelerate AI chip competitiveness.

Without such catalysts, historical pullbacks suggest a retreat to $22-$25 by mid-2025 unless he delivers tangible wins. The stock’s overbought condition post-surge and Intel’s unresolved issues—foundry losses, AI lag—pose risks to this optimism.

Conclusion

Lip-Bu Tan’s appointment has undeniably injected optimism into Intel’s narrative. His leadership offers the potential for a fresh strategic direction, particularly with his experience in both EDA software and semiconductor venture capital. However, Intel’s turnaround is no small feat. Deep-rooted manufacturing and market-share challenges will require years—not months—to fully resolve.

While Tan’s leadership significantly improves Intel’s odds of long-term recovery, investors should temper short-term excitement with realism. The path to $30 and beyond is possible—but will require not just a leadership change, but fundamental execution and strategic agility.

In this pivotal moment, the world is watching to see if Intel’s storied name can be restored under new, globally-minded leadership.

@TigerWire