Is the Pullback Over? Review of SPX’s >5% Corrections Since 2009

Recently, the sentiment in the US stock market has experienced significant pullbacks.

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ experienced a rebound over two days but then fell again on Tuesday.

Despite this, investors continue to capitalize on lower prices, as evidenced by the third-largest weekly inflow into equities ever recorded by $Bank of America(BAC)$ from its private clients.

1. Has the recent pullback in the U.S. stock market come to an end?

According to CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, investor sentiment plunged into the “extreme fear” zone in February and early March. However, as the market digests some of the negative factors, some investors are beginning to turn cautiously optimistic.

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ volatility index, an important indicator of market panic, has recently dropped from a high of nearly 30 to 21.7. This indicates that market panic has eased somewhat, but it remains above normal levels, with investors still wary of market uncertainties.
In terms of fund flows, according to $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ ’ analysis, CTAs have sold $39 billion of US stocks over the past five trading days. This large-scale selling has further exacerbated the market’s decline.
Meanwhile, international fund flows have also changed, with some capital flowing out of the US stock market and into other more attractive markets, such as China and Europe.

2. There may be hope that the corrections are nearing their end.

Below is the complete data from Charlie Biello’s chart for key insights on $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corrections exceeding 5% since the March 2009 low, updated as of March 13, 2025.

Here is the content extracted and organized by the dates listed in the table. Remember the median decline is -7.6% over 26 days.

2025: Feb 19 - Mar 13
- Duration: 22 days
- S&P High: 6147
- S&P Low: 5505
- Decline: -10.5%
- Reason: "Stocks Fall On..." Tariffs, Trade Wars and Recession Fears
2024: Jul 16 - Aug 5
- Duration: 20 days
- S&P High: 5670
- S&P Low: 5119
- Decline: -9.7%
- Reason: Recession Fears, Fed Behind Curve, Nikkei Crash
2024: Mar 28 - Apr 19
- Duration: 22 days
- S&P High: 5265
- S&P Low: 4954
- Decline: -5.9%
- Reason: Stubborn Inflation, Fed Pushing Back Rate Cuts, Iran/Israel Conflict
2022: Jan 4 - Oct 13
- Duration: 282 days
- S&P High: 4819
- S&P Low: 3492
- Decline: -27.5%
- Reason: Inflation, Rising Rates/Fed Tightening, Russia/Ukraine War, Recession Fears
2021: Nov 22 - Dec 3
- Duration: 11 days
- S&P High: 4744
- S&P Low: 4495
- Decline: -5.2%
- Reason: Covid Omicron Variant, Fed Taper Fears
2021: Sep 2 - Oct 4
- Duration: 32 days
- S&P High: 4546
- S&P Low: 4279
- Decline: -5.9%
- Reason: China Contagion Fears, Fed Taper Fears, Covid Delta Variant
2021: Feb 16 - Mar 4
- Duration: 16 days
- S&P High: 3950
- S&P Low: 3723
- Decline: -5.7%
- Reason: Inflation Fears, Rising Rates
2020: Sep 2 - Sep 24
- Duration: 22 days
- S&P High: 3588
- S&P Low: 3209
- Decline: -10.6%
- Reason: Coronavirus, No New Stimulus Deal, Election Fears
2020: Feb 19 - Mar 23
- Duration: 33 days
- S&P High: 3394
- S&P Low: 2192
- Decline: -35.4%
- Reason: Coronavirus, Global Depression Fears
2019: Jul 26 - Aug 5
- Duration: 10 days
- S&P High: 3028
- S&P Low: 2822
- Decline: -6.8%
- Reason: Trade War, Tariffs, Yuan Devaluation, Recession Fears
2019: May 1 - Jun 3
- Duration: 33 days
- S&P High: 2954
- S&P Low: 2729
- Decline: -7.6%
- Reason: Trade War, Tariffs, Inverted Yield Curve, Global Slowdown/Recession Fears
2018: Sep 21 - Dec 26
- Duration: 96 days
- S&P High: 2941
- S&P Low: 2347
- Decline: -20.2%
- Reason: Rising Rates, China Slowdown, Trade War/Tariffs, Housing Slowdown
2018: Jan 26 - Feb 9
- Duration: 14 days
- S&P High: 2873
- S&P Low: 2533
- Decline: -11.8%
- Reason: Inflation Fears, Rising Rates
2016: Aug 15 - Nov 4
- Duration: 81 days
- S&P High: 2194
- S&P Low: 2084
- Decline: -5.0%
- Reason: Election Fears/Concerns/Jitters
2015/16: May 20 - Feb 11
- Duration: 267 days
- S&P High: 2135
- S&P Low: 1810
- Decline: -15.2%
- Reason: Greece Default, China Stock Crash, EM Currencies, Falling Oil, North Korea
2014/15: Dec 29 - Feb 2
- Duration: 35 days
- S&P High: 2094
- S&P Low: 1981
- Decline: -5.4%
- Reason: Falling Oil, Strong Dollar, Weak Earnings
2014: Dec 5 - Dec 16
- Duration: 11 days
- S&P High: 2079
- S&P Low: 1973
- Decline: -5.1%
- Reason: Falling Oil, Strong Dollar
2014: Sep 19 - Oct 15
- Duration: 26 days
- S&P High: 2019
- S&P Low: 1821
- Decline: -9.8%
- Reason: Ebola, Global Growth Fears, Falling Oil
2014: Jan 15 - Feb 5
- Duration: 21 days
- S&P High: 1851
- S&P Low: 1738
- Decline: -6.1%
- Reason: Fed Taper, European Deflation Fears, EM Currency Turmoil
2013: May 22 - Jun 24
- Duration: 33 days
- S&P High: 1687
- S&P Low: 1560
- Decline: -7.5%
- Reason: Fed Taper Fears
2012: Sep 14 - Nov 16
- Duration: 63 days
- S&P High: 1475
- S&P Low: 1343
- Decline: -8.9%
- Reason: Fiscal Cliff Concerns, Obama’s Re-Election
2012: Apr 2 - Jun 4
- Duration: 63 days
- S&P High: 1422
- S&P Low: 1267
- Decline: -10.9%
- Reason: Europe’s Debt Crisis
2011: May 2 - Oct 4
- Duration: 155 days
- S&P High: 1371
- S&P Low: 1075
- Decline: -21.6%
- Reason: Europe’s Debt Crisis, Double-Dip Recession Fears, US Debt Downgrade
2011: Feb 18 - Mar 16
- Duration: 26 days
- S&P High: 1344
- S&P Low: 1249
- Decline: -7.1%
- Reason: Libyan Civil War, Japan Earthquake/Nuclear Disaster
2010: Apr 23 - Jul 1
- Duration: 66 days
- S&P High: 1220
- S&P Low: 1011
- Decline: -17.1%
- Reason: Europe’s Debt Crisis, Flash Crash, Growth Concerns
2010: Jan 19 - Feb 5
- Duration: 17 days
- S&P High: 1150
- S&P Low: 1045
- Decline: -9.2%
- Reason: China’s Lending Curbs, Obama Bank Regulation Plan
2009: Oct 21 - Nov 2
- Duration: 12 days
- S&P High: 1101
- S&P Low: 1029
- Decline: -6.5%
- Reason: Worries About The Recovery
2009: Sep 23 - Oct 2
- Duration: 9 days
- S&P High: 1080
- S&P Low: 1020
- Decline: -5.6%
- Reason: Worries About The Recovery
2009: Jun 11 - Jul 7
- Duration: 26 days
- S&P High: 956
- S&P Low: 869
- Decline: -9.1%
- Reason: World Bank Neg Growth Forecast; Fears Market Is Ahead Of Recovery
2009: May 8 - 15
- Duration: 7 days
- S&P High: 930
- S&P Low: 879
- Decline: -5.5%
- Reason: Worries That Market Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself

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