To The Moon

Gold’s recent surge past $3,000 has caught the attention of traders and investors alike. With rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of Trump’s tariffs adding to market uncertainty, many are wondering whether gold will continue climbing toward $3,200 or if a pullback is on the horizon. Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast of $3,100 for 2025, with an upside potential of $3,100–$3,300, highlighting the growing bullish sentiment.

Market Uncertainty and Gold’s Strength

The introduction of new tariffs and the broader economic uncertainty have made gold an attractive safe-haven asset. Historically, gold performs well in times of economic instability. However, the question remains—how much further can this rally go before a correction occurs?

Gold Stocks: Waiting for the Right Entry Point

While gold itself has surged, gold mining stocks have also rallied, making it difficult to find a good entry point. Many of these stocks are still trading at high valuations relative to their 52-week lows, which limits their upside potential from a value perspective. Instead of chasing prices higher, I prefer to wait for a pullback that brings these stocks closer to their undervalued levels. If gold mining stocks retreat to near their 52-week lows, I might consider adding positions, as that would provide a better risk-reward balance.

Potential Catalysts for Gold’s Next Move

• Geopolitical Tensions: Any escalation in global conflicts or trade wars could drive safe-haven demand even higher.

• Federal Reserve Policy: Interest rate decisions and inflation expectations will play a key role in determining gold’s trajectory. A dovish Fed could push gold higher, while aggressive rate hikes could limit its gains.

• U.S. Dollar Strength: A weaker dollar generally supports gold prices, while a stronger dollar could trigger a pullback.

• Central Bank Buying: If central banks continue accumulating gold, it could provide strong support for prices.

Final Thoughts

Gold’s rally above $3,000 has been impressive, but whether it sustains or corrects remains uncertain. Rather than chasing the price at current levels, I prefer to wait for more attractive entry points in gold stocks. If prices dip closer to their 52-week lows, I may consider buying for the long term. Until then, patience and strategic trading remain key.