Fed Grapples with Dual Risks as Growth Forecasted to Slow【CSOP Fixed Income Weekly】
Weekly Performance Checkpoint
【SRT】
Last week, SRT traded relatively flat. Losses were mainly attributable to retail, data centre and hotel by subsectors, as well as CICT, Suntec REIT and FCT by individual REITs. Despite that, according to CNBC, Singapore, while costlier than regional peers, is drawing tourists with premium attractions, conferences, and live events. Singapore tourism board backs interactive experiences to align with global experiential travel trends, projecting 17-18.5 million visitor arrivals this year, fuelled by new attractions like Minion Land, Rainforest Wild Asia and Disney’s cruise. Hotel RevPAR could rise 4% in 2025 if visits meet the state’s 3-12% growth forecast.
$CSOP S-REITs INDEX ETF(SRT.SI)$ 2025 YTD Total Return: +2.35%
【MMF】
Last week, FOMC held rates steady, as markets had expected, though Fed SEP forecasts were hawkish. Growth forecasts were lowered while inflation projections were raised, underscoring the dual-sided risks the Fed faces. Immediately after this announcement and Powell's subsequent press conference which had a dovish tilt, the Treasury curve bull-steepened, indicating more emphasis is placed on growth risks than sticky inflation concerns.
QT tapering was also announced to begin April 1, with JPM anticipating a reduced monthly cap on US Treasuries until end-1Q26 under a "slower for longer" approach. Powell framed inflation risks as tariff-driven and signaled policy flexibility should labor markets loosen rapidly.
Despite all of this, we expect CSOPUMM to continue to deliver stable yield in the near term. As of 20250321, the fund has a net yield at 4.21%. ^
$CSOP US Dollar Money Market ETF Unlisted Share Class P(HK0000503836)$ Net 7-day Yield: +4.21%
^ 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal.
【CN】
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts note that China’s liquidity withdrawal has temporarily stabilized bond yields and supported the yuan, but long-term sustainability remains uncertain. Last week, the PBOC shifted to net liquidity injections to address tax and quarter-end funding needs, with HSBC interpreting this as a signal that near-term required reserve ratio cuts are unlikely. This could keep interbank borrowing rates elevated until quarter-end.
Bond supply surged last week, with central and local government net issuance hitting RMB 314bn, reversing RMB 32bn net redemption the week before. Preliminary data indicates net issuance may climb further to at least RMB497 billion the coming week.
Looking at YTD performance as of 2025/03/20, $ICBC CSOP CGB ETF SGD(CYC.SI)$/ $ICBC CSOP CGB ETF US$D(CYB.SI)$’s NAV fell -1.05% in CNY and gained -0.22% in USD*.
* CYC/CYB/CYX USD NAV is converted based on benchmark FX, subject to rounding error
Global Market Outlook
【SG】JPM Sees S-REITs Gaining Traction on Recession Fears; Rate Cuts to Boost DPU, Ease Costs
JPM forecasts an investor shift to S-REITs as recession worries rise. Falling Singapore rates and expected Fed cuts in 2025 could lift S-REITs’ appeal, with DPU potentially rising 4% per 100bps floating rate drop and borrowing costs easing.
【US】Fed Grapples with Dual Risks as Growth Forecasted to Slow, Inflation Anticipated to Rise
US growth forecasts were lowered while inflation projections were raised. This underscores the dual-sided risks the Fed faces. Fed’s SEP showed 2 cuts in 2025, aligning with expectations, though distribution shifted more hawkish. The economic calendar in the upcoming week is relatively light
Source: CSOP, Bloomberg, as of 2025/03/21
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SRT
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CYC/CYB/CYX
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