This is Why I Avoid $TSLA
This is why I avoid $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ .
It sounds so sweet when you speculate that TSLA will make 10x in 5 years and 90% of the value will come from robotaxis.
Let's calculate what it takes, shall we?
Target stock price implies $7.4 trillion market cap. This means that $6.66 trillion market cap will come from robotaxi business.
Even if you give 10x sales multiple to this business, you need $666 billion annual revenue from robotaxi business.
For reference, $Uber(UBER)$ operates in over 140 countries and makes $39 billion revenue from mobility. Even UBER is grappling with regulations in many countries.
You are basically assuming that the whole world will timely issue permissive regulations, TSLA will operate in every single country in the world, will totally obliterate $UBER and domestic taxi businesses.
It's still impossible even in that case. UBER completed 11 billion trips last year. Even if you assume that TSLA net margin will triple that of $UBER, it will need to complete 55 times more trips than UBER to justify that valuation, which is 660 billion trips.
I guarantee you TSLA robotaxi isn't completing 660 billion trips in 2030. This is just absurd.
Cathie knows this too. She is trying to keep the hype up.![[Grin]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_014_ciya.6e6d1a10.png)
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