To The Moon

$BlackRock(BLK)$ is expected to report its quarterly earnings for period ending March 2025 on 11 April 2025 before the market open. BLK is expected to deliver a higher revenue as the consensus outlook gives a pretty positive outlook of BLK business.

But the recent market turmoil due to tariffs have also affected BLK share price, causing a sharp drop. BlackRock is expected to post quarterly earnings of $10.52 per share compared to same period last year. The revenues are expected to come in at $5.49 billion, up 16% from same quarter last year.

BlackRock (BLK) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Down By 14.13%

BlackRock has a positive earnings call on 15 Jan 2025 which saw its share price decline by 14.13% since.

The earnings call highlighted BlackRock's strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives in 2024, marked by record net inflows, AUM growth, and expansion into private markets and technology services. However, the call also noted some challenges, including nonoperating losses and increased expenses. Overall, the sentiment leans positive due to the substantial achievements and growth potential outlined.

BlackRock (BLK) Guidance On Structural Growth Areas

During BlackRock's Q4 2024 earnings call, the company shared comprehensive financial metrics and strategic guidance for 2025. BlackRock reported record net inflows of $641 billion for the year, with $281 billion in Q4 alone, and achieved a 7% annualized organic base fee growth in the fourth quarter, its highest in three years. The firm's assets under management (AUM) reached nearly $11.6 trillion, contributing to a 23% increase in operating income to $8.1 billion and a 15% rise in earnings per share to $43.61. BlackRock's revenue hit $20.4 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year growth, with Q4 revenue up 23% to $5.7 billion. The company also achieved a 280 basis point margin expansion, driven by disciplined investments.

Looking ahead, BlackRock aims to integrate its recent acquisitions, GIP, HPS, and Preqin, which are expected to enhance its private markets and technology revenue to over 20% of its total. The firm continues to focus on structural growth areas such as ETFs, Aladdin, outsourcing, and fixed income, with a target of 5% organic growth through market cycles.

Key Factors to Watch for BlackRock (BLK) Q1 2025:

Assets Under Management (AUM)

Market Performance: Equity and bond market trends in early 2025 will heavily impact AUM. Bull markets typically boost fees, while volatility or downturns could pressure results.

BlackRock saw record net inflows in 2024, with $641 billion in total net inflows and $281 billion in the fourth quarter alone. The AUM grew to nearly $11.6 trillion.

Investor Flows: Net inflows into BlackRock’s ETFs (especially iShares) and active funds. Continued dominance in passive investing and ESG products could drive growth.

Annual revenue increased by 14%, operating income by 23%, and earnings per share grew 15% year-over-year. Fourth quarter revenue was up 23%, and operating income increased by 36%. The acquisition of GIP closed in October, and with the planned acquisition of HPS and Preqin, private markets and technology are expected to make up over 20% of BlackRock's overall revenue.

Macroeconomic Environment

Interest Rates: Federal Reserve policy by 2025 (e.g., rate cuts could spur bond investments, while higher rates might favor money-market funds).

BlackRock generated industry-leading ETF net inflows of $390 billion in 2024, with significant contributions from newly launched digital assets ETPs

Global Growth: Recession risks or recovery trends in major economies (U.S., Europe, Asia) affecting investor sentiment.

Revenue Streams

Fee Compression: Competitive pressures on management fees, particularly in passive products. Full year G&A expenses increased by 5% due to planned technology investments and professional fees. Compensation expenses rose by 11% due to higher performance fees.

Technology Revenue: Growth in Aladdin and other tech-driven services as a high-margin segment. Technology services revenue increased by 13% year-over-year, with full-year revenue of $1.6 billion, reflecting successful client onboarding and expansion.

ESG Dynamics

Regulatory and political shifts in sustainability investing (e.g., SEC rules, EU regulations, or U.S. anti-ESG policies) may impact demand for BlackRock’s ESG offerings.

Currency and Geopolitics

FX fluctuations (e.g., a strong dollar reducing international revenue).

Geopolitical risks (e.g., conflicts, trade policies) disrupting markets or asset flows.

Cost Management

Efficiency gains from AI/automation vs. rising operational or regulatory costs. Nonoperating results included $7 million of net investment losses and lower interest income due to cash delivery for the GIP transaction.

BlackRock (BLK) Price Target

Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for BlackRock in the last 3 months. The average price target is $1,171.07 with a high forecast of $1,275.00 and a low forecast of $1,045.00. The average price target represents a 42.36% change from the last price of $822.62.

I think we need to continue to monitor BlackRock management’s commentary during the Q1 2025 earnings call on

1. AUM trajectory and fee rates.

2. Capital allocation (buybacks, dividends, M&A).

3. ESG strategy adjustments amid evolving regulations.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

With the turbulence caused by President Trump latest tariffs implementation, we have seen how BLK also suffered and a straight downtrend within days have happened, so if we were to look at how BLK earnings would come out, we might need to look more at the bear case.

BLK is trading in the oversold region on RSI, and there might be some more downside for BLK.

Here is how BLK would move after its earnings.

Bull Case: Strong markets, ETF inflows, tech revenue growth, and favorable ESG trends could lead to earnings beats.

Bear Case: Market corrections, fee pressures, regulatory hurdles, or ESG backlash might result in underperformance.

Summary

BlackRock has historically outperformed peers due to its scale, ETF dominance, and diversified offerings. Analysts will compare Q1 2025 results to prior quarters (e.g., Q1 2024) for trends in organic AUM growth and margins.

I would think BLK guidance for 2025 would be affected by the recent tariffs, so this might cause BLK share price to experience further volatility if market continue to experience the selloffs.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think BLK could turn around with a stellar earnings despite tariffs turmoil, and turn the selloff to their advantage.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.