To The Moon

Hi everyone! It’s been a while…

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Today’s newsletter centers around the main market indices, and is a continuation from Part 4:

SPDR Dow Jones Industry Average ETF (NYSEARCA: DIA)

Since my last newsletter, DIA has pushed higher as I expected and started to fill the bearish imbalance at 423.65-431.02. The daily stochastic is in extreme overbought territory but has not formed a bearish crossover.

On the 4h chart, we can see a bearish divergence forming as DIA retests the bearish imbalance. It’s likely for DIA to come back into the support trendline below before it sees another leg higher to fill the gap. Note that if the trend breaks down, then longs become risky.

Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ)

Since my last newsletter, QQQ has filled the monthly imbalance at 496.93 as I expected. It has since gone on to push into the weekly imbalance at 513.04-525.71.

Likewise, a bearish divergence is forming on the 4h chart, along with a bearish crossover on the stochastic. I am expecting QQQ to pullback into its support trendline over the next few trading sessions. If the trend holds, the weekly imbalance is likely to be fully filled, otherwise a breakdown could reward bears handsomely.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA: SPY)

Since my last newsletter, SPY has filled the monthly imbalance at 582.44 as I expected. I’m currently watching the weekly imbalance at 597.34-599.47 as well as the daily imbalance at 603.03-607.02, if we get there.

This setup is becoming all too familiar at this point. Likewise, SPY formed a bearish divergence on the 4h chart, along with a second bearish crossover on the stochastic. SPY should now come back into trend, with a breakdown below trend and the 582.44 level likely preceding a larger move down. Remember that structural breakdowns are the most damaging events for bulls as they usually precede the “real” move down!

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: IWM)

Since my last newsletter, IWM has broken above the resistance trendline (in pink) and pushed into the 203.33-210.90 monthly imbalance, although it hasn’t yet filled the imbalance during the regular trading session.

If we look closely at the chart (including PM and AH action), we can see that IWM is the only ticker to have broken down from its rising wedge, albeit with no bearish divergence or bearish stochastic crossover. This suggests that trend continuation to the downside is the most likely outcome, despite what bulls are saying on social media platforms and community forums.

From the 4 tickers I’ve shared above, I am still of the view that this could potentially be a lower high that leads to lower lows.

It’s easy to be bullish after all that has happened over the past 1.5 months or so. However, one thing doesn’t change - the monthly bearish stochastic crossover that occurred on SPY at the start of the year is not going away. The last one preceded the 2022 bear market.

Will 2025 be different? Let’s find out together!

@TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerEvents @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$