To The Moon

$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings before the U.S. markets open on Wednesday, May 29, 2025. Revenue: The consensus revenue forecast for Q1 2025 is HK$4.623 billion, representing a significant year-over-year increase of approximately 78.33% compared to Q1 2024. Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus EPS forecast for Q1 2025 is HK$13.399, a projected increase of approximately 79.61% year-over-year. Key Recent News & Updates Filing of Annual Report (April 14, 2025): Futu filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2024, with the SEC. This provides a comprehensive overview of their 2024 performance and strategic direction. Moomoo Foundation Celebrates Financial Literacy Month (April 28, 2025): Moomoo Foundation, Futu's philanthropic arm, announced initiatives for Financial Literacy Month, partnering with W!se for campus tours and publishing a financial literacy survey. This highlights their commitment to investor education and community engagement. Strategic Partnership with New York Mets (April 3, 2025): Moomoo announced a multi-year partnership with the New York Mets, aiming to increase brand recognition and user engagement through fan activities and promotions. This is a significant move for Moomoo's brand building in the North American market. Strong Q4 and Full Year 2024 Financial Results (March 13, 2025): Futu reported robust financial growth for Q4 and full year 2024, with revenue up 86.8% YoY and non-GAAP adjusted net income up 105.4% YoY for Q4. Paying clients increased 41% YoY, and total client assets grew 53%. This strong performance sets a positive tone for Q1 2025. Futu Holdings (FUTU) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Slight Gain Of 0.03% In Share Price Futu Holdings had a positive earnings call on 13 March 2025 which saw its share price increased slightly by 0.03% only. The earnings call highlighted strong growth in paying clients, revenue, and trading volume, along with significant achievements in product development and market leadership in IPO underwriting. However, challenges such as increased operating expenses and a decline in the commission rate were noted. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives. Futu Holdings (FUTU) Guidance During the Futu Holdings Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported exceeding its full year guidance by adding 215,000 paying clients in Q4, bringing the total to over 2.4 million, a 41% increase year-over-year. They are guiding for 800,000 new paying clients in 2025. Total client assets reached HK$743 billion, up 43% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter, with overseas markets recording the highest quarterly net asset inflow. Margin financing and security lending balances rose 25% sequentially to a record HK$51 billion. Total trading volume surged 202% year-over-year and 52% quarter-over-quarter to HK$2.89 trillion, with U.S. stock trading volume hitting a historic high. Revenue in Q4 was HK$4.4 billion, up 87% year-over-year, and full-year revenue grew 36% to HK$13.6 billion. Brokerage commission income increased by 128% year-over-year, while interest income rose 52% year-over-year. Operating margin improved to 50%, and net income increased by 113% year-over-year to HK$1.9 billion, with a net income margin of 42.2%. The company also highlighted the robust growth of its Wealth Management business, with total client assets increasing 93% year-over-year to HK$111 billion, and its involvement in 482 IPO distributions. What to look for in the actual earnings report Actual Revenue and EPS: How these figures compare to the consensus estimates will be the primary driver of immediate market reaction. New Paying Client Growth: The number of new clients added will be a key indicator of continued momentum. Asset Under Management (AUM) and Margin Financing Balances: Growth in these areas reflects deeper client engagement and revenue generation potential. Operating Margin: The ability to maintain or improve margins despite rising costs will be critical. Guidance for Q2 and Full Year 2025: Management's outlook on future performance will heavily influence investor sentiment. Commentary on Regulatory Environment: Any updates or insights on the regulatory landscape, particularly in key operating regions, will be closely watched. Factors Influencing Expectations and Investor Sentiment Client Growth: Futu has demonstrated strong client acquisition, with paying client counts surging 41% year-over-year in 2024. Management has set an ambitious target of 800,000 net new clients for 2025. Q1 is expected to show continued growth, driven by trading activity in Hong Kong and the U.S. Added 215,000 paying clients in Q4, resulting in a total of over 2.4 million paying clients, a 41% year-over-year increase. Regional Expansion and Localization: Futu's strategy involves localized execution in key markets like Malaysia, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Success in these markets, including gains in market share and adoption of sophisticated trading tools, is crucial for sustained growth. Delivered 209 app iterations and added 7,762 new features in 2024, with a 37% and 32% year-over-year increase respectively. Total trading volume jumped by 202% year-over-year to HK$2.89 trillion, with U.S. stock trading volume growing by 36% sequentially. Total client assets in wealth management increased 93% year-over-year to HK$111 billion, accounting for 15% of total client assets. Underwrote 40 Hong Kong IPOs, ranking first among all brokers for the third consecutive year. Margin Resilience: Despite rising interest expenses and regulatory costs, Futu has shown strong operating margins (50% in Q4 2024). Investors will be looking for continued evidence that client growth and operational efficiency can outpace cost pressures. Total revenue reached HK$4.4 billion, up 87% year-over-year. Net income increased by 113% year-over-year to HK$1.9 billion. Strategic Focus: Futu's decision to not pursue new markets in 2025 suggests a focus on deepening penetration in existing, high-ROI markets, including areas like crypto and AI tools. A pullback in China equity in the second half of Q4 weighed on the valuation of client assets. Operating expenses increased by 57% year-over-year to HK$1.4 billion due to costs related to organizational restructuring and increased headcount. Blended trading commission rate declined both year-over-year and sequentially in Q4, partially due to a shift in the product mix. Analyst Outlook: Analysts generally have a positive outlook on Futu, with the stock often seen as undervalued compared to its fair value. There's an expectation of continued earnings growth. Historical Performance: FUTU has a history of beating EPS estimates. Historically, the stock has often gained in the two weeks before earnings reports, but has also shown a tendency to move lower in the immediate aftermath of earnings. Recent Trends and Strategic Focus Global Expansion and Localization: Futu continues its strategy of deep localization in markets like Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, and Australia. Q4 2024 saw strong user and client growth in these regions, with Hong Kong also strengthening its market leadership. This multi-market approach is a key growth driver. Robust Client Acquisition: The company has consistently demonstrated strong client acquisition, with paying client numbers increasing significantly. They are targeting 800,000 net new clients for 2025, signaling continued aggressive growth in their user base. Diversification of Trading Activities: Futu is seeing increased trading activities across multiple assets. Q4 2024 saw an all-time high in trading volume, with significant surges in both US and Hong Kong stock trading. Growth in Wealth Management: Futu's wealth management business is expanding rapidly, with assets under management (AUM) nearly doubling in size year-over-year in Q4 2024. They are expanding structured product offerings for high-net-worth clients and have a bond trading desk in Singapore and Hong Kong. Enhanced Product Capabilities and User Experience: Futu continually optimizes its platform through product launches and upgrades. Recent examples include a redesigned desktop version of Moomoo, Japanese stock options trading in Japan, and Australian stock recurring investment plans in Australia. Focus on Crypto Trading: Futu's crypto trading services, launched in Singapore and Hong Kong, are gaining traction with soaring trading volume and increasing average deposits. They also aim to launch crypto trading in the U.S. market, indicating a strategic push into this asset class. Financial Literacy Initiatives: Through the Moomoo Foundation, Futu is actively promoting financial literacy, engaging with universities and publishing surveys. This not only benefits the community but also potentially expands their future client base. Strong Financial Position: Futu maintains a robust balance sheet with significant total assets and cash reserves, providing a solid foundation for further strategic partnerships and innovations. Futu Holdings (FUTU) Price Target Based on 15 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Futu Holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $136.33 with a high forecast of $168.00 and a low forecast of $113.00. The average price target represents a 21.99% change from the last price of $111.76. Analysts generally hold a positive outlook on Futu. For instance, UBS recently increased its target price for Futu Holdings, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to stronger fiscal year 2025 guidance and business confidence. The average analyst price target suggests a significant upside. Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA) I think we are going to see a strong momentum move for FUTU, as investors looked forward to its clear strategy of aggressive growth through client acquisition, geographical expansion, product diversification (including crypto and wealth management). We should be seeing some strong buying activity when market open tomorrow (27 May) after the holiday, and we might expect a surge or gap up after its earnings on 29 May. Futu strong financial position and the initiatives as well as crypto trading should be helping to gain investors confidence. I will be looking for the performance from the crypto trading service which was launched in Singapore and Hong Kong, expect some significant volume and deposits from this. Summary Futu Holdings is demonstrating a clear strategy of aggressive growth through client acquisition, geographical expansion, product diversification (including crypto and wealth management), and continuous platform enhancement. The upcoming Q1 2025 earnings will be a crucial indicator of how effectively these trends are translating into financial performance. Expectations are for strong growth in both revenue and earnings, driven by robust client acquisition and strategic market penetration. The market will be keenly watching the actual figures and management's outlook for confirmation of these positive trends. Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Futu would continue to show strong numbers for its earnings and customer growth. @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts. Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.