As we wrap up a volatile May filled with AI earnings, inflation surprises, and political drama, the spotlight now shifts to June—a month historically known for being a transition point before the summer lull. But will this June follow tradition, or break the mold?
📊 What Happened in May? Quick Recap:
Nvidia crushed expectations and reminded the market who’s king of the AI trade.
Tesla bounced above $300, reigniting retail sentiment.
CPI cooled, sparking hopes for a rate cut by September.
US debt auctions and Fitch downgrade worries briefly rattled bonds.
S&P 500 ended strong, hovering well above its 200-day moving average.
In short, bulls had the upper hand.
🔮 What to Watch in June
Fed Meeting (June 12–13)
Expectations lean toward a pause, but investors will scrutinize the tone. Any dovish tilt could light a fire under equities, especially tech.
Inflation Data (Mid-June)
A second month of soft CPI could cement the rate-cut narrative. But any upside surprise? Brace for volatility.
AI & Tech Momentum
Nvidia, AMD, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) may continue to drive sentiment. Watch for leadership rotation.
Macro Headlines
Will robotaxis gain regulatory green lights?
Will Trump’s or Biden’s campaign remarks move crypto or defense stocks?
Will China stimulus headlines return?
Summer Caution
June often sees profit-taking before low-volume July/August. “Sell in May” didn’t work—will June be the real turning point?
📈 Bullish Scenario:
S&P 500 pushes toward 5,500 or higher, fueled by continued tech momentum and falling bond yields.
Bitcoin resumes uptrend if risk appetite stays strong.
Small caps & cyclicals rotate in, suggesting broader rally legs.
What you might want to do:
Ride the trend but trail stops tighter.
Add exposure to lagging sectors showing strength (financials, industrials).
Don’t fight the tape—until it changes.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Hawkish Fed or sticky inflation data hits growth names.
Tech takes a breather; S&P dips back to 5,100–5,200 range.
Geopolitical surprises or bond market stress returns.
What you might want to do:
Hedge with inverse ETFs or raise cash.
Consider covered calls on overstretched names.
Stay nimble, not stubborn.
⚖️ Neutral/Base Case:
Market chops sideways with a slight upward bias.
June ends with S&P near current levels (~5,300) as traders await clearer signals in July.
Stock selection becomes more important than sector trends.
🎯 Final Take: How I’m Playing June
June is a month for discipline and selectivity. With valuations rich and news flow unpredictable, I’m not chasing blindly. But I’m also not sitting out. I’m:
Staying long quality AI/tech but trimming parabolic names.
Watching financials, semiconductors, and industrials for rotation.
Eyeing crypto for speculative upside into US election chatter.
Keeping powder dry for any “June dip” into FOMC or CPI surprise.
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