To The Moon

A 200% gain in such a short time usually means momentum traders and short squeezes are driving the action, not fundamentals. This makes Circle (CRCL) highly volatile and unpredictable in the near term. While explosive IPO runs can continue (think of Rivian or ARM), they often retrace heavily before stabilizing. Buying at these levels can be risky unless you have a high-risk tolerance and a short-term game plan (e.g., scalp, swing trade).

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🧠 Cathie Wood’s Moves: Buy Circle, Sell Coinbase?

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is known for buying disruptive tech early, but her moves don’t always predict long-term success (see Zoom or Teladoc). Her buying Circle and selling Coinbase might reflect a rebalancing into a new opportunity, but it’s not necessarily a bearish signal for COIN. Still, her funds are transparent and actively traded, so any large shift can move markets temporarily—especially in thinly traded IPOs like Circle.

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🏦 Stablecoin Business: A Strong Long-Term Theme?

Circle’s business is tied closely to USDC, a regulated stablecoin. The case for investing in it hinges on:

• Adoption of stablecoins in global payment systems.

• Regulatory clarity benefiting “compliant” players.

• Differentiation from Tether (USDT), which is less transparent.

But Circle’s revenue is linked to interest income on reserves. As interest rates fall, that income might decline, which could impact valuation unless other revenue streams grow.

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🔍 Your Smart Caution: Institutions & Volume Clues

You’re spot-on that volume and Level 2 data can tell you if institutions are exiting. But IPOs are tricky—lock-up periods mean insiders can’t sell yet, but early backers (like SPAC sponsors) might have clauses allowing quick exits. So yes, keep watching volume spikes and SEC filings (Form 4s for insider sales, 13Ds/Gs for big holders).

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📉 Bottom Line: Worth a Small Position, Not a YOLO

If you’re bullish on stablecoins and believe Circle can become the PayPal of Web3, it might be worth starting a small position, then adding on dips if the valuation becomes more reasonable. Otherwise, wait for a post-hype pullback, which happens to nearly all IPOs.

Let me know if you’d like a technical chart breakdown or comparison with similar IPOs like COIN, PYPL, or @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars