To The Moon

Looking ahead, we expect the market to exhibit a supportive, upward-biased trading pattern toward the end of this week and into early next week. However, this will likely be followed by renewed selling pressure later in the week, leading to a potential correction that could extend into early to mid-July. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

Since our previous analysis, several high-impact developments have significantly influenced the market landscape.

The most notable was the second round of trade negotiations initiated by a phone call between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. These discussions led to in-person negotiations held in the United Kingdom, which initially fueled strong market optimism and resulted in a sharp upward move across equities. However, the outcome of these talks failed to meet investor expectations, as the statements released were largely general and lacked concrete commitments. Consequently, the market's upward momentum lost steam, and buying strength began to fade.

As buying pressure weakened, selling pressure gradually increased. A wave of profit-taking emerged, leading to a choppy trading pattern marked by weak rallies and mild pullbacks. This uncertain price action triggered stop-loss selling among short-term investors, further intensifying downside pressure. As a result, the previously strong uptrend began to deteriorate, and a shift toward a more bearish tone started to take hold.

The market was further shaken by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A large-scale airstrike by Israel on Iran escalated regional instability, sending crude oil prices soaring. The stock market reacted swiftly to this event with a sharp decline, increasing overall volatility across global indices.

In the short term, market volatility is expected to remain elevated due to the geopolitical uncertainty. However, investor sentiment suggests that the Israel-Iran conflict may be relatively short-lived. This expectation could help stabilize the market and potentially lead to a recovery in the near term.

That said, even if Middle Eastern tensions subside, lingering concerns over global tariffs and unresolved trade issues remain key headwinds. As such, any near-term upward momentum is likely to be limited. We are also approaching a technical phase where selling pressure may re-intensify, increasing the likelihood of another downward move.

Short-Term Outlook and Market Timing

Looking ahead, we expect the market to exhibit a supportive, upward-biased trading pattern toward the end of this week and into early next week. However, this will likely be followed by renewed selling pressure later in the week, leading to a potential correction that could extend into early to mid-July.

By mid-July, we anticipate a potential inflection point, with the market likely shifting back into a more sustained upward trend as volatility decreases and technical support levels are reaffirmed.

Strategic Takeaways

Current Strategy: Sell and Observe

Bullish Reentry Watch: Monitor closely over the next 3 days

Next Sell Opportunity: June 25–26 @ 20,259

Upside Potential (short-term): ~3.1%

Downside Risk: ~-1.0%

Investors should stay defensive but nimble. The Bearish trend is not deeply entrenched, and the rising probability of a Bullish return warrants readiness for reengagement.

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