To The Moon

🧠 Stocks to Watch Today (23 June): Key Signals and Tactical Moves

1. Broad Market Pulse: All three major US indices rose modestly—.DJI +0.38%, .IXIC +0.43%, .SPX +0.46%. But beneath the surface, equity breadth is thinning. Mega-cap tech ($Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$  ) continues to do the heavy lifting, suggesting we are approaching a reflexive risk-on zone where concentration becomes a vulnerability, not a strength.

2. Micron $Micron Technology(MU)$ ) Earnings Setup: Micron is emerging as the bellwether for DRAM and NAND demand recovery. What’s underappreciated is the shift in product mix—high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators like Nvidia’s Hopper GPUs could surprise to the upside. If gross margin guidance beats, expect bullish read-throughs for Samsung and SK Hynix.

3. AI Supply Chain Realignment: Marvell's $MARVEL DISCOVERY CORP.(MARVF)$  rally reflects a deeper structural trend—hyperscaler spending is moving from generic compute to customised silicon. Investors should monitor companies like Cadence (CDNS) and Synopsys (SNPS) that enable chip design rather than just chip manufacturing. It’s a margin-rich part of the AI value chain.

4. Crypto and Macro Volatility Nexus: Bitcoin retested $100K post–Middle East strikes, briefly reclaiming $101K. This wasn:t just risk sentiment—it coincided with a spike in 10-year Treasury volatility (MOVE Index up 4.6%), suggesting crypto is increasingly behaving as a macro-hedge, akin to digital gold. Watch GBTC discount-to-NAV narrowing for clues on institutional flows.

5. Oil and Geopolitics: Despite US precision strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, Brent and WTI futures remain subdued. The muted oil reaction suggests markets believe escalation will remain contained. However, a risk premium could be reintroduced if strikes expand beyond infrastructure into supply lines. $Occidental(OXY)$  s relative strength (+1.04%) hints at positioning for that tail risk.

6. FX-Linked Equity Plays: USD/JPY has edged closer to 160, raising risks of BOJ intervention. Japanese exporters (e.g., Toyota, Sony) could benefit near-term, but FX volatility also makes these trades fragile. US investors may consider currency-hedged Japan ETFs (like DXJ) to mitigate the whipsaw risk.

7. SGD Rate Signals: In Singapore, 6-month SORA fell below 3.1% for the first time in 3 months. This has implications for rate-sensitive REITs (e.g., MLT, Ascendas). With the Fed expected to cut in Q3, a re-rating of high-yielding REITs may begin. Consider staggered entries rather than lump-sum deployment.

My Tactical Allocation Today

✅ Overweight: MU (pre-earnings momentum), Marvell (custom AI), CDNS (chip IP), DXJ (JPY risk hedge)

⚠️ Neutral: COIN, GBTC (crypto support zones unclear)

🔻 Underweight: Broad small caps (weak breadth), oil equities unless escalation deepens

💰 Fixed income hedge: Add to SGD 2–5Y bonds as yield curve steepens gradually

What are your thoughts—bull trap or breakout continuation?