To The Moon

Here’s a detailed overview of OCBC’s (O39.SI) performance on SGX – covering share price, earnings, dividend payouts, and outlook.

⸻

📈 Share Price & Market Context

• As of July 4, 2025, OCBC shares are trading around S$16.44 on SGX, within a 52-week range of S$13.75–17.93 ().

• Market sentiment has been mixed: OCBC was down ~2.1% year-to-date by late May, lagging the STI, although it outperformed peers DBS (+1.1%) and UOB (‑3.4%) attempted ().

• Analyst target prices range from S$14.40 to S$19.30, with a median around S$17.34 — suggesting modest upside potential ().

⸻

💰 Earnings Highlights

Q1 2025 (ended Mar 31)

• Net profit: S$1.88 billion, down 5% YoY (from S$1.98 b) but +12% QoQ ().

• NII (Net Interest Income): S$2.35 b (‑4% YoY, ‑4% QoQ); margins compressed to ~2.04% ().

• Non-interest income: S$1.31 b, boosted by trading, fees, and insurance (+10% YoY; +36% QoQ) ().

• Expenses: S$1.42 b (‑9% QoQ), improving cost-to-income ratio to ~38.7% ().

• Credit allowances: Raised by 25% QoQ to S$212 m amid global uncertainties ().

• ROE: 13.0%—up QoQ but down from 14.7% YoY ().

• OCBC reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, targeting NIM ~2%, credit costs 20–25 bps, amid cautious regional growth outlook ().

Full-Year 2024

• Net profit: Record S$7.59 b (+8% YoY) ().

• Net interest income: S$9.76 b (a slight NIM dip to 2.20%) ().

• Non-interest income: S$4.72 b (+22%) ().

• Dividends: Final ordinary of S$0.41, interim bringing total ordinary to S$0.85, with an extra special dividend of S$0.16, totalling S$1.01 per share (60% payout) ().

⸻

🟢 Dividend Outlook 2025

• Ex-dividend date: April 25, 2025; record date: April 28; payment date: May 9 ().

• Total paid: S$0.528 per share (~S$0.41 ordinary + S$0.16 special) ().

• That corresponds to a 10.7%–10.8% yield, based on the S$16.44 share price ().

• OCBC is maintaining its 60% dividend payout ratio target for 2024–25, including special dividends and share buybacks totaling S$2.5 b ().

• Market commentary suggests the bank expects to maintain dividend guidance into 2025 despite trade uncertainty ()

My holdings 

🔍 Summary & Outlook

Category Key Takeaways

Price Action Trading near mid-range, with moderate upside. Analysts see slight undervaluation.

Earnings Mild YoY dip but sequential improvements; Q1 reflects resilience in fees and cost control.

Margins NIM under pressure (~2%), with expected ongoing compression in 2025.

Capital Strong CET1 (~15.5%), though paying out ~1.2 ppt via dividends ().

Dividend High ~11% yield; special payout indicates aggressive capital return; 60% payout guidance continues.

Risks/Outlook Slowing loan growth, macro trade risk, margin pressure; but balanced by diversified income and capital strength.

⸻

🖋️ Final Thoughts

OCBC delivers compelling income for investors via robust dividends (S$0.528/share in 2025, ~11% yield), backed by solid earnings and prudent capital management. While net interest margins may soften, fee diversification, cost discipline, and strong capital positions are cushioning the impact. The bank’s commitment to a 60% payout, coupled with S$2.5 b in shareholder returns, signals confidence in its earnings power. However, macro pressures—especially slowing loan growth and margin compression—warrant attention into the latter half of 2025.

⸻

Bottom line: OCBC shares offer an attractive high-income play in Singapore’s banking sector, with steady earnings and a supportive capital-return policy. For income-focused investors, OCBC (O39.SI) remains a top contender—albeit not without interest-rate and macro-watch risks.

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into valuation, peer comparisons (DBS/UOB), or forecasted earnings scenarios!

@Wrtd 

@MillionaireTiger 

@TigerEvents 

@Daily_Discussion 

@CaptainTiger 

@TigerStars