To The Moon

$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ 🤖📈💊 Oscar Health: From Volatility to Velocity, $30 Isn’t Just Possible, It’s Probable 💊📈🤖 Price is power, and right now $OSCR is threatening to reclaim it. I’m still long, watching this reversal unfold in real-time as Oscar rips off the VWAP floor and sets sights on flipping the 0.38 Fibonacci level to support. This isn’t noise. This is structure. The ABC correction appears complete, price is above the $16.46 POC with buyers defending $16, and we’re now sitting right in the demand zone. Short interest is extreme: 29.7 million shares, while the float is relatively thin. When this kind of setup triggers, squeezes don’t ask for permission. 🔁 This one’s a data-backed momentum reversal with fuel to burn 📊 Technicals: Breakout Engine Loaded The weekly chart shows a completed pullback into the .618 retracement and a strong bullish engulfing candle reclaiming $17. The 4-hour demand zone just held. MA20 and MA30 are curling upward with MACD cross-confirmation, and RSI is recharging above 53. We’ve seen price defend the high-volume node and begin to re-accelerate off VWAP, a textbook momentum reset. I’m watching for $OSCR to flip the $17.85 MA5 and reclaim the $20.58 candle wick. If this push sustains, the next Fib extension targets cluster around $25.40 to $27.00. That lines up with prior earnings gap zones. If momentum builds, $30 becomes not just reasonable, but underpriced. 🧠 Fundamentals: Profit, Leverage, and Execution Discipline Oscar Health just posted its strongest quarter ever: • Revenue up 42% YoY to $3.05B • Net income surged to $275M (up 55%) • Operating income climbed 60% to $297M • SG&A dropped to 15.8%, a record low • Membership grew 41% to 2.04M members, led by individual and small group plans This isn’t just top-line growth, it’s operational leverage in action. Oscar’s vertically integrated tech stack is turning efficiency into profit. Q1 2025 operating margin reached 9.8%, while adjusted EBITDA hit $329M. For a company that was once bleeding capital, that’s a paradigm shift. Its $4.9B cash and investment position provides flexibility to scale its +Oscar platform, expand virtual care, or even acquire AI-native health partners. This is no longer a pure growth bet; this is a margin-expanding execution story. ⚠️ Valuation & Risk Pulse That’s where the trade tightens. $OSCR now trades at over 30x forward earnings, nearly 200% above the sector median. You don’t get that kind of valuation without expectations. Oscar must continue delivering operating efficiency, member retention, and margin resilience, especially as Q3 to Q4 enrollment drops back to approximately 1.8M and MLR normalises. MLR is already up 120 bps to 75.4%, in part due to prior-year risk adjustment drag. Further stress from utilisation spikes or regulatory reshuffles could squeeze future EBITDA margin growth. Plus, Oscar lacks the lobbying scale of $UNH or vertical muscle of $ELV and $CVS. Execution risk remains high. Retail is leaning in, but institutional positioning is still light; this makes $OSCR a high-leverage retail-led squeeze setup with room to run. ⚙️ The Health-Tech Flywheel Is Spinning Oscar’s flywheel is real: • Virtual urgent care improved provider efficiency by 28% • AI-driven routing cut provider wait times by 90% • Full-stack tech is reducing claim lag and optimising cost Its +Oscar platform could eventually monetise as a B2B engine. But the key question is scale: can tech transformation outperform old-school cost control? That’s the pivot the Street is betting on. 📈 2027 Outlook and Strategic Path Oscar’s targets are ambitious: • Revenue CAGR approximately 20% to $8.4B+ • 5% operating margin • EPS greater than $2.25 If they get there, a $30+ share price will have been a discount. But if execution slips, current multiples will compress swiftly. 🎯 My Setup and Strategy Technicals and fundamentals are finally in sync. The short squeeze setup is clean. Demand zone has held. ABC correction looks resolved. Fundamentals confirm momentum. I’m watching: • Break and retest of $17.85 • Volume confirmation above $20.58 • Options activity above $22 Target 1: $22.78 reclaim Target 2: $27 zone Target 3: $30 in 2H 2025 A move back to all-time highs isn’t out of the question if retail and institutional momentum converge. 🧠 Contrarian Insight Most investors still view Oscar as a “cool tech insurer.” They’re late. This is a profitable, cash-flow positive operator with a growing member base and real leverage on fixed cost infrastructure. Its valuation risk is front-loaded. What’s mispriced is that Oscar is closer to maturity than to speculative infancy. 📌 What I’m Watching • Membership attrition post–special enrollment period • SG&A ratios holding below 16% • Medical loss ratio stabilising under 76% • Any sign of +Oscar monetisation outside insurance 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion