Weekly | Key Data Worsens Again, Stimulus Policies on the Horizon!
This week, Hong Kong stocks rebounded, with the $HSI(HSI)$ rising by 0.93%.
Market Sentiment Shift
Following last week’s sixth Central Financial and Economic Committee meeting, the fight involution trend is gaining momentum. The solar industry saw multiple companies raise their silicon wafer prices.
On Tuesday, the State Post Bureau held a meeting, stressing the need to strengthen industry regulation, improve postal and express delivery market rules, and fight “involutionary” competition. They emphasized tackling service quality issues in the last-mile sector to contribute to a unified national market.
Economic Data Highlights
On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that CPI rose by 0.1% YoY in June, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 0.1% decline. However, PPI fell by 3.6%, more than the previous month’s 3.3% drop, marking the largest drop since July 2023.
This marks the 33rd consecutive month of YoY declines in PPI, signaling that the price war may be reaching a point where intervention is necessary. This situation reminds investors of the 2016 supply-side reform, which cleared outdated production capacity and sparked a rally in related sectors.
Sector Performance
This week, the financial sector surged, while real estate saw a 4.4% increase.
Southbound funds saw a net inflow of HK$26.4 billion this week.
China will release June trade data, as well as the latest economic indicators such as GDP, retail sales, and industrial production on Tuesday.
The US will announce its June CPI next week, which could have significant market impacts.
The US earnings season begins next week, with major companies like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Citigroup(C)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$.
Major Events in Hong Kong Stocks This Week
1.Trump sends tariff letters to multiple countries, and those not receiving letters may face a 15-20% “uniform tariff”.
2.The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is pushing for the inclusion of RMB-denominated stock trading in the Stock Connect.
3.Trump threatens high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals.
4.Several new stocks, including $LENS(06613)$, $DAZHONG DENTAL(02651)$, $FORTIOR(01304)$,$GEEKPLUS-W(02590)$ and $XUNZHONG(02597)$ were listed this week.
5.China’s June CPI rose 0.1%, while PPI fell 3.6%.
6. $WUXI APPTEC(02359)$ expects a net profit of 8.56 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 101.92%.
7.Jay Chou joins Douyin, boosting the stock price of $STARPLUS LEGEND(06683)$ .
8. $GUOTAI JUNAN I(01788)$ hit a record high, leading the brokerage sector surge.
9. $BABA-W(09988)$ issued a zero-coupon convertible bond worth HK$12.02 billion.
10.Bitcoin hit a new high, nearing the $120,000 mark.
Four Stocks Worth Attention Among Top Trading HK Stocks This Week
Top 1: $GUOTAI JUNAN I(01788)$ – The stock surged 50.6%, hitting a record high, driven by a Bitcoin rally and a breakout in the Shanghai Index above 3500 points.
Top 3: $LENS(06613)$ – The stock rose over 9% on its listing day after the IPO was oversubscribed by 461.76 times.
Top 5: $MEITUAN-W(03690)$ – Amid intensified competition in the food delivery sector, analysts downgraded Meituan’s target price. The stock became a prime short-selling target.
Top 7: $GCL TECH(03800)$ – The “fight involution” trend continues to gain strength, with the news of potential silicon material stockpiling sending related stocks soaring.
Next Week's Hong Kong Stock Market Events
1.Next Monday, China will release financial data, including M2 money supply and new RMB loans for June.
2.Next Monday, China will also announce export data, closely watched for shifts in the trade situation.
3.Next Tuesday, China will release Q2 GDP, retail sales, industrial output, and unemployment data.
4.Next Tuesday, the US will announce its June CPI data, expected to show a 2.6% YoY increase.
5.Next week, the US earnings season kicks off with major reports from companies like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Citigroup(C)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$.
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