To The Moon

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ is scheduled to release its results before the market opens on Tuesday, July 15, 2025, at approximately 7:00 AM ET, followed by a conference call at 8:30 AM ET.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 EPS is around $4.51, which would represent a roughly 2.5% increase year-over-year. Some estimates suggest it could be around $4.49, implying a 2.1% rise. Notably, the consensus EPS estimate has seen marginal upward revisions in the past week and month.

Tipranks consensus estimate for Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to come in at $4.48 per share.

Revenue: Analysts project revenues to be around $43.81 billion, which would be a decline of approximately 12.7% from the same quarter last year. However, some sources cite a consensus revenue estimate of $43.47 billion, suggesting a 3.4% year-over-year decline, or even $75.94 billion, indicating a significant 42% fall from a year ago. There seems to be some discrepancy in the revenue projections, so investors will be looking for clarity on this.

Net Interest Income (NII): NII is expected to offer some support to overall earnings. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is around $23.4 billion, suggesting a 3% rise year-over-year. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% in Q2 is likely to have stabilized funding/deposit costs, contributing to NII.

Investment Banking (IB) Fees: Expectations are for investment banking fees to be down in the mid-teens percentage from a year ago, primarily due to factors like tariff policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions impacting deal-making activity earlier in the quarter. However, a rebound in deal-making activity later in the quarter might offer some support.

Markets Revenues: Client activity and market volatility were strong in Q2 2025, driven by uncertainty over tariff impacts and Fed monetary policy. This is likely to have led to decent growth in markets revenues (equities and fixed income), which comprise a significant portion of JPM's total revenues. Consensus estimates suggest fixed-income markets revenues could see around 8.8% growth.

Mortgage Banking Fees: While interest rates fluctuated in Q2, they remained relatively high (mid-to-upper 6% range). This may have led to some improvement in mortgage banking fees, though achieving a record number like the prior year's quarter could be challenging.

Expenses: Operating expenses are expected to increase due to JPM's ongoing initiatives to enter new markets, open branches, and make investments in technology to enhance digital offerings.

Asset Quality: Analysts anticipate an increase in provisions for credit losses, especially for potential delinquent commercial loans, given the "higher for longer" interest rate environment and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Consensus estimates for non-performing loans (NPLs) and non-performing assets (NPAs) indicate increases of 17.3% and 15.6% year-over-year, respectively.

Capital Ratios: Analysts are forecasting a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 7.1% (compared to 7.2% in the prior year) and a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 16.3% (compared to 16.7% in the prior year). Total Capital Ratio is estimated at 17.7% (compared to 18.5% in the prior year).

Capital Returns: JPMorgan recently increased its quarterly dividend to $1.50 per share from $1.40 and authorized a $50 billion share buyback program, which indicates confidence in its capital position.

JP Morgan (JPM) Last Neutral Earnings Call Did Not Saw Much Change In Its Share Price Since

JPMorgan Chase delivered strong financial results with significant growth in revenue and net income, particularly in the Commercial & Investment Bank and Asset & Wealth Management segments. However, the company faces challenges from increased credit costs, a decline in NII ex. Markets, and a highly uncertain macroeconomic environment that has led to a substantial reserve build. Expenses have also risen due to higher compensation and fees.

JP Morgan (JPM) Guidance

During JPMorgan Chase's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the firm reported a net income of $14.6 billion, translating to an EPS of $5.07 on revenue of $46 billion, with a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 21%. The revenue saw an 8% year-on-year increase, driven by a $1.7 billion or 21% rise in Markets revenue, despite a 2% decline in NII ex. Markets.

The firm's expenses rose by 4% to $23.6 billion, influenced by increased compensation and legal expenses. Credit costs were $3.3 billion, with net charge-offs of $2.3 billion and a net reserve build of $973 million, bringing the total allowance for credit losses to $27.6 billion. The firm maintained a CET1 ratio of 15.4%, distributing $11 billion to shareholders. For the full year, JPMorgan Chase expects NII ex. Markets to be around $90 billion and anticipates a card net charge-off rate of about 3.6%. The firm expressed a cautious stance on investment banking due to elevated risks and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment.

Core Focus Areas for Q2 2025

Net Interest Income (NII): With rate volatility still in play, investors will scrutinize how Fed policy shifts have impacted JPM’s NII. Any signs of margin compression or expansion could ripple across the sector.

Loan Demand & Credit Quality: Amid global slowdown concerns, metrics like net charge-offs and credit loss allowances will be pivotal. Investors want to see how JPM balances growth with risk containment.

Investment Banking & Trading Revenue: Market turbulence may have boosted trading desks, especially in equities and fixed income, but M&A activity could be mixed. Watch for commentary on capital markets performance and fee generation.

Management’s Macro Outlook: Jamie Dimon’s take on inflation, rates, and geopolitical risks will likely set the tone for broader market sentiment. Any updates on strategic initiatives—like the JPMD project—could also be spotlighted.

Segment-Level Performance: Analysts expect strength in Consumer & Community Banking, particularly in card services (+12.6% YoY) and asset & wealth management (+15.9% YoY). Home lending may show softness (-2.8% YoY).

Factors to Watch During the Earnings Call

Investors will be closely monitoring:

Management Commentary on Economic Outlook: Insights into how JPM views global economic challenges, interest rate fluctuations, trade policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks.

Guidance for Future Quarters/Full Year: Any updates to revenue, NII, and expense guidance will be crucial.

Credit Quality Trends: Further details on loan loss provisions and any changes in asset quality outlook, particularly concerning commercial real estate and consumer loans.

Performance of Key Segments: Deeper dives into the performance of Consumer & Community Banking, Investment Bank, Asset & Wealth Management, and Commercial Banking.

Impact of Regulatory Changes and Capital Management: Discussions around capital requirements, stress test results, and future capital return strategies.

Analyst Sentiment & Market Reaction

JPMorgan has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from Wall Street analysts, with 16 "buy," 4 "hold," and 2 "sell" recommendations out of 22 analysts. The average target price is around $293, suggesting a modest upside from current levels.

The stock has performed well year-to-date, rallying by approximately 22%, partly due to strong Q1 2025 earnings and comfortably passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests, which paved the way for increased capital returns.

Historically, JPM's stock has shown a positive one-day post-earnings return in about 45% of cases over the last five years, increasing to 67% over the last three years. This suggests a tendency for positive reactions, especially in recent periods.

Market participants are expecting an implied stock move of 3.7% in either direction following the earnings release.

JP Morgan (JPM) Price Target

Based on 23 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for JPMorgan Chase in the last 3 months. The average price target is $293.00 with a high forecast of $336.00 and a low forecast of $196.34. The average price target represents a 2.14% change from the last price of $286.86.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

JPM is showing some consolidation recently with the RSI momentum continued to show strong positive, and the bulls are in control with JPM trading above the 50/200 EMA level, so what will actually happen after its earnings on 15 July might be focusing on JPM’s outlook for 2025.

Another factor to watch is the NII which analyst is expecting an overall modest growth in EPS driven by higher NII and solid markets revenues. So we might want to watch JPM closely for any breakout if JPM can produce an earnings surprise.

Summary

While there are some anticipated headwinds like declining investment banking fees and rising expenses, analysts expect overall modest growth in EPS driven by higher NII and solid markets revenues. The market will be looking for clear guidance and commentary on the macroeconomic environment from JPM's leadership.

JPM’s commentary on rate sensitivity, credit spreads, and capital deployment could offer valuable signals for July positioning. If Dimon leans hawkish or flags credit deterioration, it might tilt sentiment toward defensive yield plays or volatility hedges.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think JPM would be able to provide a better guidance while giving a modest EPS due to stronger NII growth.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.