To The Moon

As the earnings season nears, there are some stocks which I find that are near buy points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite made record highs on Thursday, although both finished with slight weekly losses, but The S&P 500 slid 0.3% on Friday, July 11, 2025, retreating from record levels after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada.

In this article I would like to break down five stocks which I find that they are near their buy points using the multi-indicator strategy. I would also be sharing on how Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI divergence, volume-weighted momentum, Fibonacci levels, and ADX converge to signal potential buy zones.

Veeva Systems (VEEV)

Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging the upper band, suggesting bullish momentum but not yet overextended.

MACD: Positive crossover with MACD at 0.38 — a bullish signal.

RSI: Neutral at ~55, leaving room for upside without being overbought.

Volume-weighted momentum: Bull/Bear Power at +2.01 and ROC positive — confirms accumulation.

Fibonacci: Pivot point aligns near $284.24, with price consolidating just above — a classic breakout setup.

ADX: Strong trend at 34.8 — confirms directional strength.

Conclusion: $Veeva(VEEV)$ shows a confluence of bullish signals with trend strength and breakout potential above its pivot.

Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band, but not breaking — suggests controlled bullishness.

MACD: Positive at 0.95 — bullish crossover confirmed.

RSI: Elevated at 68 — bullish but nearing overbought.

Volume-weighted momentum: ROC and Bull/Bear Power both positive, signaling strong buying pressure.

Fibonacci: Pivot at $72.17, price trading above — breakout confirmation.

ADX: Strong at 40.37 — confirms trend strength.

Conclusion: $Urban Outfitters(URBN)$ is in a strong uptrend with momentum and volume confirming breakout above key levels.

Millrose Properties (MRP)

Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band, with Williams %R at -0.14 — overbought but trending.

MACD: Strong at 6.33 — bullish momentum confirmed.

RSI: At 100 — extremely overbought, but supported by trend strength.

Volume-weighted momentum: Bull/Bear Power at +12.18 — aggressive accumulation.

Fibonacci: Pivot at $22.80, price consolidating above — continuation setup.

ADX: Very strong at 42.67 — confirms powerful trend.

Conclusion: $Millrose Properties, Inc.(MRP)$ is technically overbought but supported by strong trend and volume — a momentum-driven buy.

Micron Technology (MU)

Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, suggesting potential rebound.

MACD: Slightly negative at -0.03 — early reversal signal.

RSI: Neutral at ~47 — not overbought, room to run.

Volume-weighted momentum: ROC positive, Bull/Bear Power slightly negative — mixed but stabilizing.

Fibonacci: Pivot at $121.99, price near support — potential bounce zone.

ADX: Moderate at 23.13 — trend forming.

Conclusion: $Micron Technology(MU)$ is near support with early signs of reversal — a tactical entry for rebound traders.

Trane Technologies (TT)

Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, Williams %R at -93 — oversold.

MACD: Negative at -0.69 — bearish but flattening.

RSI: Low at ~36 — oversold territory.

Volume-weighted momentum: Bull/Bear Power at -3.88 — selling pressure easing.

Fibonacci: Pivot at $422.89, price just below — potential reclaim setup.

ADX: Strong at 45 — confirms trend strength despite pullback.

Conclusion: $Trane Technologies PLC(TT)$ is oversold with strong trend — a contrarian buy setup if price reclaims pivot.

In the next section, I would like to share what how I build a dynamic simulation that integrates return cones, macro overlays, sector rotation, and tariff risk into the July strategy refinement.

Here is how I would structure it.

Return Cone Simulation: Volatility-Weighted Projections

For each stock — VEEV, URBN, MRP, MU, and TT — I’ll simulate return cones using:

• Historical volatility (30-day and 90-day)

• Implied volatility from options markets

Macro-adjusted drift based on interest rate trends and inflation expectations

Macro-Responsive Allocation Overlay

Using a barbell framework, we will split exposure:

• High-torque growth sleeve: VEEV, MU, MRP

• Defensive yield sleeve: TT, URBN

Macro signals layered in:

• VIX: Elevated at ~18.7 — favoring defensive tilt

• Interest rates: Fed pause priced in, but July cut odds rising — bullish for rate-sensitive sectors

• Inflation: Cooling CPI supports real estate and consumer discretionary

Allocation weights (July tilt):

• Growth sleeve: 55%

• Defensive sleeve: 45%

• Rebalancing trigger: VIX > 20 or CPI > 3.5%

Sector Rotation Overlay

Based on July’s divergence:

• Rotation out of large-cap tech (Nasdaq softening)

• Rotation into small-cap value (Russell 2000 +10% in July)

• Top-performing sectors: Real Estate (+7.2%), Utilities (+6.8%), Financials (+6.4%)

Implication:

• Increase exposure to MRP (real estate) and URBN (retail value)

• Reduce MU (tech cyclicality) unless Taiwan exposure offsets tariff risk

Tariff Risk Overlay

With the July 9 tariff deadline looming:

• MU: Semiconductor tariffs (25%) risk margin compression

• TT: Green tech components may face elevated steel tariffs

• MRP: Real estate materials exposed to aluminum tariffs

Mitigation strategies:

• Favor companies with USMCA-compliant supply chains (e.g., URBN sourcing from Mexico)

• Hedge MU with INTC or TSM (Taiwan tariff advantage)

• Use options overlays (e.g., MU puts, MRP calls) to buffer volatility

In the next section I will be layering in earnings season catalysts and model how a July rate cut would reshape your macro-responsive allocation.

Earnings Season Catalysts: Sector-Specific Tailwinds

Here is how upcoming earnings could influence each stock:

Investor sentiment is shifting toward earnings as a primary driver, especially with rate uncertainty lingering.

July Rate Cut Scenario: Allocation Shift Model

If the Fed cuts rates in July, here is how it would impact our allocation:

Macro Effects

• Lower cost of capital → boosts growth stocks (VEEV, MU)

• Yield compression → favors real estate and consumer discretionary (MRP, URBN)

• Tariff inflation offset → supports climate tech (TT)

Allocation Shift (vs. Baseline)

Rebalancing Trigger: If Fed signals second cut in September, consider rotating further into high-beta growth.

In this section I will be sharing how we simulate how our July allocation model performs under varying CPI and VIX regimes, and then visualize a cone overlay that maps earnings volatility vs. macro drift for each stock.

CPI & VIX Scenario Simulation: Allocation Stress Test

We will test three CPI and VIX combinations to evaluate portfolio resilience:

Insights:

• MRP acts as a hedge in both inflation and volatility spikes.

• MU is most sensitive to VIX due to semiconductor cyclicality.

• TT benefits from defensive rotation despite short-term margin pressure.

Cone Overlay: Earnings Volatility vs. Macro Drift

This cone visualizes each stock’s earnings volatility range (σ) against its macro-adjusted drift (μ), highlighting risk-adjusted upside.

Cone Interpretation:

• MRP has the most favorable cone: low volatility, high drift.

• MU shows high dispersion with negative drift — tactical exposure only.

• VEEV and URBN offer asymmetric upside with controlled risk.

In the next section I will be layering in additional macroeconomic factors will sharpen our July allocation model and stress-test its resilience.

Here is a deeper dive into what is worth integrating:

Global Growth Outlook

Revised Downward: Q2 2025 global growth forecast was lowered to 2.34%, driven by tariff shocks and geopolitical tensions.

Implication: Favor companies with domestic revenue exposure and resilient demand (e.g., URBN, MRP).

Commodity Price Trends

Oil: Bearish outlook due to weak demand and trade disruptions.

Gold: Bullish sentiment amid inflation hedging and geopolitical risk.

Implication: TT may benefit from lower input costs; MRP gains from inflation hedge positioning.

Currency Dynamics

USD Weakening: Fading U.S. exceptionalism and rate differentials support EM currencies.

Implication: MU’s global supply chain may benefit from FX tailwinds; URBN’s Mexico sourcing gains competitiveness.

Geopolitical Risk

Tariff Escalation: Semiconductor, pharma, and green tech sectors face elevated duties.

Middle East Conflict: Potential oil price shock could ripple through inflation and consumer sentiment.

Implication: MU and TT require hedging overlays; MRP and URBN offer defensive buffers.

Fiscal Policy & Stimulus

Europe: Military spending and fiscal easing support growth.

China: Counter-cyclical stimulus and innovation push (e.g., DeepSeek AI) stabilize demand.

Implication: Global tech sentiment may lift VEEV and MU; real estate and retail benefit from fiscal tailwinds.

Business Sentiment & Credit Conditions

U.S. Business Sentiment: Slipping due to tariff uncertainty, but margins remain strong.

Credit Access: Still healthy — no signs of leverage stress or funding constraints.

Implication: Supports continued earnings resilience for VEEV, URBN, and TT.

In the following section, I will be sharing how we simulate the return cones evolve post-earnings and under a September rate cut, then build a rebalancing heatmap based on CPI-VIX thresholds to guide tactical allocation shifts.

Post-Earnings Cone Evolution + September Rate Cut Scenario

We will adjust each stock’s cone based on:

Earnings surprise impact (volatility expansion or compression)

Rate cut drift adjustment (macro tailwind for growth assets)

Key Insight: Rate cuts compress cost of capital and expand valuation multiples — especially for VEEV and MU. MRP remains a low-volatility anchor, while TT’s cone narrows post-earnings, signaling stabilization.

Rebalancing Heatmap: CPI-VIX Threshold Matrix

This heatmap guides allocation shifts based on macro stress signals:

Usage:

• If CPI = 2.9% and VIX = 18 → Growth Tilt (60%)

• If CPI = 4.6% and VIX = 22.5 → Defensive (65%)

• If CPI = 3.2% and VIX = 26 → High Defense (70%)

Rebalancing Triggers:

• CPI > 3.5% → rotate into MRP, TT, URBN

• VIX > 24 → reduce MU, hedge with options or inverse ETFs

Summary

Trading stocks near "buy points" before earnings season can be crucial for investors and traders due to the potential for significant price movements. Companies' earnings reports are major catalysts, often causing increased volatility and gaps in stock prices.

By identifying stocks near technical "buy points" (e.g., support levels, breakout points) prior to an earnings announcement, we normally aim to:

Capitalize on Pre-Earnings Momentum: Optimistic expectations or positive analyst forecasts can create upward momentum, potentially driving prices higher before the actual report.

Position for Earnings Surprises: If the company beats expectations, the stock can experience a sharp upward move, leading to substantial gains. Being positioned beforehand allows participation in this immediate jump.

Manage Risk (Relatively): While still risky, entering near a defined buy point with a clear stop-loss can offer a better risk/reward profile. If the earnings disappoint, losses can be limited if the pre-defined exit is honored.

But we need to conduct our own thorough research, understanding historical price action around earnings, and strict risk management are paramount.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think there are opportunities to monitor stocks that are near buy points with a properly conduct research and strategy.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.