To The Moon

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🧊 CPI at Multi-Year Lows: A Trigger for Repricing

June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to come in at 2.33%, potentially marking the lowest inflation reading since January 2019’s 1.97%. This cool-down comes at a pivotal time as markets are already pricing in one to two Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end. Lower inflation removes pressure on the Fed and opens the door for a more accommodative policy stance, giving growth stocks a tailwind—particularly those with global reach and minimal tariff exposure.

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🛒 Why I’m Avoiding Tariff-Sensitive Staples Like Walmart

Walmart may seem like a stable pick, but in today’s macro backdrop, I’m cautious. As a major importer of goods, Walmart is exposed to tariff risks, especially with U.S.-China tensions back in the headlines. While inflation softens, so does Walmart’s ability to pass on higher costs, compressing its already thin margins. In contrast, companies offering digital products, software, experiences, or franchised services are largely shielded from tariffs—and that’s where I’m rotating my capital.

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🎬 Netflix (NFLX): Streaming Without Borders

Netflix operates on a global digital subscription model, meaning zero reliance on physical goods or supply chains. Its business is inherently tariff-immune.

Earnings Snapshot (Last 3 Quarters):

• Q1 2025: EPS $6.61 (+25% YoY), Revenue $10.54B

• Q4 2024: EPS $7.07

• Q3 2024: EPS growth steady at ~25% YoY

🧠 Takeaway: Netflix shows robust top-line growth and earnings beats, riding on global expansion and increased subscriber monetization.

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🧠 Palantir (PLTR): AI Intelligence Meets Government & Commercial Power

Palantir thrives in AI-driven big data analytics for both defense and private sectors. Its intellectual property and services are software-based, keeping it fully insulated from tariff noise.

Earnings Snapshot (Last 3 Quarters):

• Q1 2025: GAAP EPS $0.08 | Adj EPS $0.13 (+62% YoY), Revenue $884M (+39% YoY)

• Q4 2024: EPS $0.14 (+75% YoY)

• Q3 2024: EPS $0.10 (+43% YoY)

🧠 Takeaway: Palantir’s high-margin, scalable model is tailor-made for an AI‑first economy, and shows accelerating revenue with zero physical trade exposure.

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🚢 Royal Caribbean (RCL): Luxury Travel, Not Tariff-Laden Goods

RCL benefits from the global “revenge travel” wave. It’s a services-first, experience-driven company, largely immune from tariff disruptions on consumer imports.

Earnings Snapshot (Last 3 Quarters):

• Q1 2025: EPS $2.71 (Beat est.), Revenue $4.00B (+7.3% YoY)

• Q4 2024: EPS ~Mid-$3 range (Recovery in motion)

• Q3 2024: Adjusted EPS $5.20

🧠 Takeaway: Travel demand is surging, and RCL’s bottom line continues to grow. Tariffs don’t matter when you’re selling sunshine and ocean views$Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$  

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🍔 McDonald’s (MCD): A Defensive Play with Global Pricing Power

While it’s a household name in the consumer space, McDonald’s isn’t like Walmart. Its franchise model, localized supply chains, and brand loyalty allow it to defend against macro shocks.

Earnings Snapshot (Last 3 Quarters):

• Q1 2025: EPS $2.60–2.67 (slight YoY decline), Revenue $5.96B

• Q4 2024: EPS $2.83 (–4% YoY)

• Q3 2024: Solid performance, with some cost pressures

🧠 Takeaway: Though margin pressure exists, MCD remains a resilient dividend-yielding income stock, less vulnerable to global tariffs compared to big-box retailers.

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🎯 Final Word: CPI Is Down. Tariff Exposure Is the New Risk.

With CPI dropping and rate cuts likely back on the table, I’m focusing on non-tariff, asset-light, and rate-sensitive companies that can thrive in this environment. Walmart and other consumables may lag as their costs remain elevated due to tariffs, while pricing power weakens.

My conviction portfolio includes:

• Netflix (NFLX): Digital global scale, high margins

• Palantir (PLTR): High-IV AI exposure with strong contract growth

• Royal Caribbean (RCL): Surging demand, zero tariff drag

• McDonald’s (MCD): Defensive yield with global resilience

📉 Soft inflation + tariff realities = time to pivot from consumables to experiences, innovation, and software.

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@Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger @Wrtd @TigerEvents @TigerStars