U.S. JUNE CPI PREVIEW: INFLATION TRENDS AND FED OUTLOOK
Goldman Sachs Forecast
- Core CPI: +0.23% m/m (below 0.3% consensus).
- Core services inflation: +0.26% m/m.
- Tariffs add +8bps, mainly in household goods, recreational/communication items.
- Outlook: Tariffs to push core inflation up in H2 2025; 3.1% YoY core CPI by December.
- Softer CPI could support 25bp Fed rate cut in September.
J.P. Morgan Forecast
- Headline CPI: +0.28% m/m; Core CPI: +0.29% m/m (highest since February).
- YoY: Headline CPI at 2.7% (4-month high); Core CPI at 3.0% (highest since February).
- Drivers: Tariff-impacted goods, rising shelter/travel prices (OER/tenants’ rent +0.3%, lodging +0.3%, airfares +0.8%).
- Fed likely to hold rates, monitoring tariffs and inflation expectations.
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