To The Moon

The current landscape for crypto stocks is a fascinating mix, with significant legislative clarity emerging in the US (e.g., the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, the CLARITY Act defining digital assets) and Bitcoin's price showing steady, albeit not explosive, growth. This environment sets the stage for a shift in which crypto stocks are poised to be the "real winners."

With landmark legislation like the GENIUS Act and Clarity Act clearing regulatory fog, the crypto sector is entering a new phase—institutional legitimacy meets speculative upside. But with Bitcoin hovering around $117K–$123K, the rally feels more like a slow burn than a breakout. That’s creating a stock-picker’s market where fundamentals, positioning, and infrastructure exposure matter more than hype.

What’s Next for Crypto Stocks?

Regulatory clarity is unlocking sidelined capital: Stablecoins now have federal guardrails, and crypto assets are gaining clearer SEC/CFTC classifications.

Reduced Regulatory Arbitrage & Increased Compliance Costs: While clarity is good, it also means higher compliance burdens. Firms that previously operated in grey areas will need to invest significantly in legal and compliance infrastructure. This favors larger, well-funded players.

ETF inflows are strong: BTC ETFs saw $388M in one day post-GENIUS Act.

Stablecoin Growth: The GENIUS Act specifically legitimizes stablecoins, potentially leading to widespread adoption for payments and cross-border transactions by major financial players and even large retailers (e.g., Amazon, Walmart exploring their own stablecoins).

Institutional adoption is accelerating: Banks, retailers, and payment platforms are integrating stablecoin rails and tokenized assets.

Focus on Utility and Scalability: The market will increasingly differentiate between projects with genuine utility and those that are purely speculative. Blockchain scalability solutions (Layer 2s) will become even more crucial as adoption grows.

Product Innovation: With legal certainty, companies can innovate more freely, developing new crypto products and services (e.g., tokenized real-world assets, more sophisticated DeFi offerings integrated with TradFi).

Volatility remains contained: BTC’s rise is steady, not euphoric—suggesting accumulation rather than mania.

Macro Economic Factors Still Matter: While legislation brings clarity, crypto assets are still influenced by broader economic factors like inflation and interest rates. A "mellow" BTC rise suggests that while the floor is higher, extreme speculation might be dampened by a more regulated environment and current macro conditions.

Implication: Stocks with real infrastructure, custody, or payment rails—not just speculative exposure—are best positioned.

🏆 Crypto Stocks Likely to Be Real Winners

Wildcard: BlockDAG (BDAG) — DAG-based scalability, EVM/WASM compatibility, and 2,380% presale ROI.

Regulated Exchanges and Brokerages (e.g., Coinbase Global (COIN)): These companies are direct beneficiaries of increased institutional and retail participation due to clear regulations. As the "on-ramps" and "off-ramps" to the crypto economy, they will see higher trading volumes, more listings, and potentially new revenue streams from compliant services. Coinbase's direct exposure to stablecoin revenue (via USDC) also positions it well. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

Stablecoin Issuers (e.g., Circle Internet Group (CRCL)): With specific legislation for stablecoins like the GENIUS Act, companies that issue these fiat-backed digital currencies are set to become significant players in the traditional financial system. Their products can revolutionize payments and remittances, attracting massive institutional and corporate interest. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$

Bitcoin Miners (e.g., Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), HIVE Digital (HIVE)): While Bitcoin's price rise is "mellow" now, regulatory clarity often breeds long-term confidence. Miners, especially those with efficient operations, low energy costs, and strategies for scaling (like HIVE's hashrate increase), stand to gain from consistent BTC prices and potential future appreciation. They provide a leveraged play on Bitcoin's long-term success.

Companies with Blockchain Infrastructure and Enterprise Solutions: Firms focused on building out the underlying blockchain technology for enterprise use cases (e.g., tokenization of real-world assets, supply chain management, private networks) will thrive as businesses adopt this technology with greater confidence. This includes companies providing compliant custody solutions, smart contract auditing, and secure blockchain infrastructure. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Block, Inc.(XYZ)$

Bitcoin "Proxy" Companies (e.g., MicroStrategy (MSTR)): Companies that strategically hold large amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets act as proxies for direct BTC exposure. If institutional interest continues to flow into Bitcoin, these companies will see their valuations rise. $Strategy(MSTR)$

But as we know that macro economic factors still matter, so we tried to simulate how key crypto stocks and tokens behave under CPI/VIX shifts, then build a rotation dashboard to visualize historical outperformance across macro regimes.

CPI/VIX Shift Simulation: Crypto Stocks & Tokens

Here, we will model behavior across three CPI/VIX regimes using historical correlations, beta profiles, and macro sensitivity.

Regime 1: CPI Cooling + VIX < 15 (Calm Markets)

Interpretation: Calm markets favor infrastructure and custody plays; speculative tokens gain slow momentum.

Regime 2: CPI Spike + VIX > 30 (Volatility Surge)

Interpretation: Defensive posture dominates; high-beta crypto stocks and tokens face asymmetric downside.

Regime 3: CPI Reflation + VIX 15–25 (Risk-On Recovery)

Interpretation: Reflation unlocks upside convexity across infrastructure, custody, and AI-crypto convergence plays.

Rotation Dashboard: Historical Outperformance by Regime

Key Takeaways:

• COIN and NVDA consistently outperform in tech-led and reflationary cycles.

• XYZ and HOOD are more sensitive to retail flows and macro volatility.

• FET/AGIX/ASI shine in narrative-driven risk-on regimes but falter under stress.

Next, I would like to perform both: compare ETF-token pairings across AI-crypto themes and build a dynamic allocation model tailored for July–August macro conditions.

This should help us to gauge how we will deploy our resources to find opportunities and take advantage of potential upside.

ETF–Token Pairing Comparison: AI + Crypto Exposure

We will match ETFs with tokens based on thematic overlap, infrastructure exposure, and macro sensitivity.

Insight: CHAT–FET/AGIX/ASI pairing offers the most upside convexity in tech-led regimes. BLOK–LINK/SOL is ideal for crypto infrastructure rallies. KOIN–OCEAN/FET provides hybrid exposure with lower beta.

Dynamic Allocation Model: July–August 2025

We will simulate a macro-responsive sleeve allocation across Growth, Yield, and Optionality, factoring in CPI/VIX trends and sector rotation overlays.

Macro Assumptions:

• CPI: Cooling to 2.6%

• VIX: Stabilizing around 17–19

• Fiscal: Mild stimulus via infrastructure and AI grants

• Crypto: Regulatory clarity post-GENIUS Act

Barbell Sleeve Allocation

Tilt: Favoring growth + optionality with moderate yield ballast. AI-crypto convergence plays dominate upside exposure.

Rotation Overlay: July–August Historical Trends

Interpretation: July–August favors AI-led growth and infrastructure tokens. BLOK shows seasonal weakness in August, suggesting tactical trimming.

Final Note:

If you are an investors looking to enter into crypto-related trade, I think the combination of crypto stocks and ETFs, paired with some of the stablecoins token might do the work. I have been using this to get into crypto, will be adjusting more weightage on the stablecoins.

Summary

The clear legislative framework essentially legitimizes and de-risks the crypto space for a much wider array of investors and businesses. This shift from a speculative, wild west frontier to a more regulated, mature industry will favor companies that can navigate compliance, offer robust and secure services, and integrate effectively with traditional finance.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think crypto legislation passed would boost investors confidence and sentiment to get into the crypto related assets investing.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.