To The Moon

We have $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ fiscal Q2 2025 earnings coming up on 23 July 2025, so while we consider how analysts are viewing the fiscal Q2 2025 earnings of GOOGL, but I think we need to consider how GOOGL earnings might be affected by the macro regimes. So in this article, I would like to share how I have done a barbell sleeve simulation across macro regimes. But first, let us looked at what are the metrics investors would be looking at for Alphabet’s July 23 earnings release. GOOGL Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings: Key Metrics to Watch Core Financial Metrics EPS Forecast: $2.16–$2.17, up ~14% YoY Revenue Estimate: $93.67B, +10.5% YoY Net Income: ~$24.7B, up from $21.2B YoY Free Cash Flow Margin: ~20.8% (watch for compression due to AI capex) Segment-Level Drivers Google Services: Search, YouTube, Android, and Play Store—expected to drive >75% of revenue Google Cloud: Forecasted at $13.04B, +26% YoY YouTube Ads: ~$9.47B, +9.3% YoY AI Overviews & Gemini: Monetization progress and user growth (1.5B+ monthly users) Risk Factors Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC): Estimated at $14.07B, up from $13.39B YoY Regulatory Overhang: Antitrust cases and EU/US scrutiny Valuation Sensitivity: P/FCF at 32.05 vs 5Y avg of 26.25—potential de-rating risk Barbell Sleeve Simulation: Macro-Responsive Allocation Shifts Here is how we simulate how GOOGL’s barbell sleeve (Growth–Yield–Optionality) might rebalance under three macro scenarios: In a soft landing, GOOGL leans into AI infra and Cloud growth, while maintaining yield discipline. Under stagflation, it pivots defensively, preserving cash and trimming optionality. A risk-on rally could unleash aggressive scaling across all sleeves. In the next section, I would be sharing how we layer in technical scoring and simulate sleeve rotation across macro regimes for GOOGL, $Microsoft(MSFT)$, and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, then visualize it in a comparative dashboard. Technical Scoring Snapshot (Q2 2025) AMZN leads on technical momentum and trend strength, suggesting higher convexity potential if macro tailwinds align. Macro Stress Test: Barbell Sleeve Rotation Simulation Under risk-on conditions, AMZN’s optionality sleeve expands most aggressively, while GOOGL and MSFT lean into AI infra. In stagflation, all three pivot defensively, but MSFT maintains the most balanced posture. Dashboard: Sleeve Dynamics Across Regimes Barbell Sleeve Allocation (% of Strategic Exposure) Macro Regime AMZN shows the most aggressive growth sleeve expansion under bullish regimes, while MSFT maintains the most consistent sleeve balance across scenarios. I think we need to consider the macroeconomic data that would be coming, as we have seen how these data could affect how stocks move. So in this following section, we will be sharing how we layer in valuation sensitivity, simulate sleeve dynamics under CPI/VIX shocks, and build both a volatility cone overlay and a peer-relative rotation heatmap for GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN. Valuation Sensitivity Snapshot (Q2 2025) GOOGL trades at a steep premium on P/FCF and P/S, while AMZN shows relative undervaluation despite high multiples. MSFT sits in the middle, with a balanced valuation profile. CPI/VIX Shock Simulation: Sleeve Rebalancing CPI upside + VIX spikes compress growth sleeves and force cash hoarding. CPI downside + VIX collapse triggers aggressive optionality expansion. Volatility Cone Overlay (Q2 2025) AMZN sits at the top of its cone, suggesting elevated convexity potential. GOOGL’s rising cone hints at breakout volatility, while MSFT remains anchored. Peer-Relative Rotation Heatmap (Momentum vs Valuation) Heatmap Quadrants: Y-axis: Rotation Momentum (Technical Score) X-axis: Valuation Sensitivity (Premium vs Discount) AMZN leads on momentum and trades at a relative discount, ideal for convexity plays. GOOGL shows strong momentum but stretched valuation. MSFT offers balanced exposure. Why I Keep AMZN and GOOGL In My Tech Portfolio I am keeping AMZN and GOOGL in my long-term tech portfolio. Both are cloud providers which are used by both private and public companies in the region I am in, so for the fundamental, these two companies are having continuous business. With AI demand, both are in the upside movement. Summary The Barbell Sleeve Rotation perspective suggests that AMZN currently offers the most compelling combination for "convexity plays" due to its robust momentum coupled with a valuation that is more attractive relative to its recent past. GOOGL has strong momentum but its valuation might limit its convexity potential. MSFT provides a more stable and balanced exposure, suitable for the conservative side of a barbell strategy or as a core holding, but with less pronounced convexity compared to AMZN. Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think we should invest in AMZN to take advantage of its momentum leader with relative discount, while riding on MSFT which offers a more balanced profile, while keeping GOOGL long-term for its strong momentum driven by its AI integration in search and cloud computing (Google Cloud), while monitoring its stretched valuation concerns. @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts. Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.