To The Moon

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ has been a subject of increasing analyst attention, with JPMorgan recently reaffirming its "Overweight" rating and raising its price target to $190.

This comes despite Qualcomm's historical underperformance compared to its semiconductor peers like NVIDIA and AMD.

The question of whether Qualcomm is on the cusp of a breakout is gaining traction due to a confluence of factors.

I have taken a position of QCOM recently at around $157.68, as I believe there might be a breakout coming if QCOM could produce an earnings beat and a positive outlook guidance.

Why Analysts Are Turning Bullish

JPMorgan’s Upgrade: Analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated an Overweight rating and raised the price target to $190, implying ~25% upside from recent levels.

Valuation Edge: Qualcomm trades at a P/E of ~15, dramatically lower than peers like NVIDIA (55) and AMD (115)—making it one of the cheapest large-cap semis.

Technical Momentum: Since April, QCOM has rallied nearly 30%, forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with RSI and MACD confirming bullish momentum.

Are We Seeing a Breakout Soon?

There are strong indications that Qualcomm could be nearing a significant breakout.

Undervaluation: Qualcomm's valuation, particularly its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 15, is significantly lower than that of its high-flying peers like NVIDIA (P/E 55x) and AMD (P/E 115x). This deep discount suggests that the market may not be fully appreciating Qualcomm's growth potential.

Technical Momentum: The stock has shown a clear uptrend since April 2025, climbing nearly 30% from its lows and forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This technical setup is often a precursor to a breakout.

Analyst Support: The recent upgrade from JPMorgan, a prominent investment bank, signals growing confidence in Qualcomm's future. This kind of analyst backing can significantly influence market sentiment.

Upcoming Earnings: Qualcomm has a history of beating analyst expectations in its earnings reports. Its upcoming Q3 2025 earnings release on July 30, 2025, is highly anticipated and could serve as a powerful catalyst if the company delivers strong results and optimistic guidance.

Catalysts on the Horizon That Might Drive a Breakout:

Several key catalysts could propel Qualcomm shares higher:

Strong Earnings Performance (Q3 FY25 and beyond): Qualcomm's earnings reports are always a major event. If the company continues to beat estimates and, more importantly, provides strong guidance, it could significantly boost investor confidence and drive a re-rating of the stock. The market will be looking for continued growth in its diversification efforts.

Diversification Beyond Smartphones: While mobile remains a core business, Qualcomm is aggressively expanding into new, high-growth markets. This diversification is key to reducing its reliance on the cyclical smartphone market and offsetting the impact of Apple's eventual shift to in-house modems.

Automotive: Qualcomm's Snapdragon Digital Chassis is gaining significant traction in the automotive industry, with a strong pipeline and a target of $8 billion in revenue by fiscal 2029. Continued design wins and partnerships in this segment will be a strong positive.

IoT (Internet of Things): Qualcomm aims for $4 billion in IoT revenue by fiscal 2029. Its solutions are being adopted in various industrial applications, including retail, with AI-powered edge computing and connectivity solutions. Demonstrating strong growth in this segment will be crucial.

AI PCs: Qualcomm is making significant strides in the AI PC market, with Snapdragon-based PCs gaining market share. As AI capabilities become more integrated into personal computing, Qualcomm's advanced chipsets for AI on devices could drive substantial revenue growth. The recent win against Arm in their litigation regarding AI-PC chips also clears a path for growth in this area.

XR (Extended Reality): Qualcomm is targeting $2 billion in XR revenues by fiscal 2029, with over 15 smart glass designs from global partners. The growing adoption of AI in XR devices could provide a significant boost.

Advancements in AI at the Edge: Qualcomm's focus on bringing AI capabilities directly to devices ("AI at the edge") is a significant differentiator. This includes AI-powered modems, on-device generative AI, and solutions for various industries. As the demand for localized AI processing grows, Qualcomm is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.

Resolution of Legal Overhangs: While Qualcomm recently settled an investor lawsuit related to antitrust practices, ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential future disputes can still weigh on the stock. A sustained period without major legal challenges would remove an existing overhang.

Robust Cloud-Related Spending: JPMorgan specifically cited "robust cloud-related spending in 2H 2025" as a tailwind for Qualcomm. This suggests that the broader enterprise adoption of cloud technologies, which often involves advanced connectivity and processing, will benefit Qualcomm's various segments.

Underrated Dividend Play: Yield of ~2.3% with 23 years of increases—adds stability to the bull case.

How Investors Can Make a Short-Term Trade to Take Advantage:

For short-term traders looking to capitalize on a potential Qualcomm breakout, here are some strategies, keeping in mind that short-term trading involves higher risk:

Event-Driven Trading (Earnings Play):

Strategy: This is the most direct short-term play. Given Qualcomm's history of beating earnings estimates and the current bullish sentiment, a positive earnings surprise for Q3 FY25 (due July 30, 2025) could trigger a significant upward move.

Execution:

Buy before earnings: Some aggressive traders might buy shares or call options a few days before the earnings release, anticipating a beat.

Trade the reaction: A more conservative approach is to wait for the earnings release and the initial market reaction. If the stock gaps up significantly on strong results, you could enter a long position.

Risk Management: Set tight stop-losses, as earnings can be highly volatile, and a miss or disappointing guidance can lead to sharp declines.

Options: Consider buying out-of-the-money call options expiring shortly after the earnings date. This offers leveraged exposure with defined risk (premium paid). However, option decay and implied volatility post-earnings can be significant factors.

Technical Breakout Confirmation:

Strategy: Wait for the stock to decisively break above a key resistance level on strong volume. The $160-$165 range (around its recent trading highs) could be a crucial resistance point. A break above its 52-week high of $196.24 would be a major technical breakout.

Execution:

Identify Resistance: Monitor key price levels.

Volume Confirmation: A true breakout is usually accompanied by significantly higher trading volume.

Entry Point: Enter a long position shortly after the confirmed breakout.

Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss just below the broken resistance level (which now acts as support).

Target Price: Use technical indicators (e.g., Fibonacci extensions, prior highs) or analyst price targets (JPMorgan's $190 target) as potential take-profit levels.

"Buy the Dip" in an Uptrend:

Strategy: Given the established uptrend since April, if Qualcomm experiences a short-term pullback due to broader market volatility or minor negative news, it could present a buying opportunity within the larger bullish trend.

Execution:

Identify Support Levels: Use moving averages (e.g., 20-day, 50-day EMA) or Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support zones.

Look for Reversal Signals: Wait for bullish candlestick patterns or technical indicators (e.g., RSI bouncing from oversold territory) to confirm a bounce from support.

Risk Management: Set stop-losses below the identified support level.

Short-Term Trade Setup

Here is a tactical trade idea based on current technicals:

Trade Component

Details

Entry Zone : $151.80–$155.43 (bullish channel support)

Target Zone : $182.10–$193.84 (next resistance cluster)

Stop Loss : $141.77–$135.21 (below Fibonacci fan support)

Risk/Reward : ~3.0x

• Indicators to Watch: RSI > 60, MACD crossover, ADX > 25 for trend confirmation.

• Volume Signal: Recent bounce had above-average buying volume—suggests accumulation.

QCOM Current RSI Is Below 60

As of 25 July 2025 last close, QCOM RSI is trending below 60,which would mean that we need to wait for next week to see if there is further investors sentiment that could push QCOM RSI above 60.

QCOM MACD Crossover Happened

We saw MACD crossover happened on 23 July 2025, which is an indication of upside trend building up, though we are seeing a small consolidation from QCOM, I believe that we need to watch the price action closely next week before its earnings.

QCOM ADX is Above 25 Now

QCOM ADX is currently above 25 which is an indication of an upside impending, and combined with other indicators like RSI and MACD, I believe that we could be seeing a break out if QCOM could report an earnings beat and strong outlook guidance.

Leveraged ETFs (Higher Risk):

Strategy: For very aggressive traders, leveraged semiconductor ETFs that include Qualcomm could offer amplified returns. However, these are designed for daily rebalancing and are extremely volatile, making them unsuitable for most investors.

Caution: These are highly speculative and recommended only for experienced traders with a deep understanding of their mechanics and associated risks.

In order for us to understand the volatility of a short-term trade on QCOM, we layer Qualcomm’s setup into a volatility cone framework and simulate return paths under earnings beat vs. miss scenarios, then construct a short-term tactical dashboard with Bollinger Bands and rotation scoring.

We will also highlight actionable trade zones and monitor real-time momentum triggers.

Volatility Cone & Return Simulations – Qualcomm (QCOM)

Historical Volatility Cone (30-day window): Based on the past 3 years, QCOM’s 30-day realized volatility sits in the 15–43 range, with median at 22.7.

Cone Trajectory:

• Beat Case: Price accelerates into $184–$190 zone (resistance cluster) within 10–15 trading sessions.

• Miss Case: Pullback to $138–$142 zone with ADX collapse; watch for RSI to dip below 40.

Tactical Dashboard – Short-Term Trade Setup

Suggested Action:

• Entry Zone: $154.20–$157.50 (post-earnings anticipation support)

• Target Zone: $184.10–$191.60

• Stop Zone: $141.40–$138.00 (cone tail + BB support)

• Risk/Reward Estimate: ~3.2x

In the next section we will be showing how Qualcomm (QCOM) stacks up against SMH, AMD, and NVIDIA (NVDA) using a structured rotation heatmap overlay, integrating volatility cones, momentum scoring, and macro-reactive signals from the post-earnings and trade-driven rally.

Semiconductor Rotation Heatmap – Short-Term Tactical Overlay

Strategic Insight

• QCOM stands out with a favorable entry zone and compressed volatility—indicating potential convex upside if earnings surprise positively.

• SMH is steady but not breaking out—can serve as a beta hedge if paired with QCOM.

• AMD is shaky, with volatility expanding and no clear trend acceleration.

• NVDA is stalling, despite long-term strength; short-term trade may favor lower-beta setups like QCOM.

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Important Considerations for Short-Term Trading:

Risk Management: Always define your maximum loss per trade and stick to it. Use stop-loss orders.

Volatility: Qualcomm can be volatile, especially around earnings and news. Be prepared for rapid price swings.

Market Sentiment: The broader market sentiment, particularly in the semiconductor space and tech, will significantly influence Qualcomm's short-term movements.

News Flow: Stay updated on company-specific news (partnerships, product launches) and broader industry trends.

Summary

While Qualcomm appears to be in a favorable position for a potential breakout, short-term trading carries inherent risks. Investors should conduct their own thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Qualcomm (QCOM) shows upside potential due to its undervalued stock compared to peers, strong financial performance, and strategic diversification beyond smartphones into high-growth areas like automotive and AI.

Analysts are increasingly optimistic, raising price targets, as they anticipate strong earnings, driven by continued 5G expansion and traction in new markets. Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates and a history of beating expectations further fuel this positive attention.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think QCOM investors could be looking to ride on the positive analysts sentiments and paid close attention to QCOM before its earnings.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.