To The Moon

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) recently surged past the 25,000 mark, reigniting investor interest and bringing China assets back into the spotlight.

HSI (HSI)

Yes, China Assets Are Rising… But I’m Still Watching from the Sidelines

Let me start by saying: I don’t currently own any China-related assets, and at this point, I don’t plan to buy any either. This isn’t because I doubt the long-term potential of Chinese companies—many of them are highly innovative, resilient, and offer real growth stories. The hesitation comes from a few very practical, personal reasons.

1. I Struggle to Buy When Prices Have Already Jumped

Like many investors, I try to follow the classic wisdom of “buy low, sell high.”

With the HSI rallying sharply and many individual China stocks surging off their lows, I find myself hesitant to jump in now. It’s not because I think these companies aren’t valuable but because psychologically, I struggle to buy something that was significantly cheaper just a few months ago. That “I missed the bottom” feeling creeps in and makes it hard to commit.

I know markets don’t move in straight lines, and sometimes missing the bottom is better than missing the entire run but that emotional barrier is real. And when prices are already climbing fast, finding a good entry point becomes even harder for me.

2. Exchange Rate Risk Makes Me Cautious

As a Singaporean, I naturally think in SGD. But most China assets are traded in CNH (offshore RMB) or HKD. And sometimes, even USD, depending on the ETF or ADR.

Over the past few months, I’ve seen how quickly exchange rates between SGD and USD can shift. What looks like a gain in a foreign market can easily become a loss after currency conversion.

That adds an extra layer of uncertainty I’m not always comfortable with. Unless I’m highly confident in an investment, I’d rather not introduce currency risk into the equation, especially for trades I may not hold long-term.

3. I Prefer to Invest in What I Understand

Another major factor is familiarity.

While I find the China market fascinating, the truth is that I’m not deeply familiar with most Chinese companies—their business models, leadership, regulatory risks, or even their accounting practices. That lack of knowledge makes me hesitant to invest real money.

I believe that successful investing often comes down to understanding what we own. And right now, my circle of competence doesn’t include much of China. If I can’t confidently explain why a company is a good long-term bet, I probably shouldn’t be buying it.

Will I Ever Invest in China Assets?

Maybe. I’m not ruling it out.

If I have the time in the future, I’d like to learn more. There are many promising sectors in China from clean energy to e-commerce, AI to EVs that are shaping the future of Asia and beyond. I believe that the China story is far from over, and understanding it could open up new opportunities.

But for now, I’m staying focused on markets, companies, and currencies I’m more familiar with.

Final Thoughts

The Hang Seng’s breakout above 25,000 is impressive.

But for me, this rally is a reminder of something simple but important: I don’t have to chase every opportunity. Sometimes, sitting on the sidelines is part of a solid long-term strategy.