To The Moon

$Apple (AAPL) $The financial report will be released after the market closes on July 31, Eastern Time. The agency expects to achieve revenue of US $88.957 billion in 2025Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.71%; Earnings per share are expected to be $1.421, a year-on-year increase of 1.51%.

For Apple's quarterly report,The market will focus on: iPhone sales growth, service business revenue, AI strategy progress, and tariff risk response.

As the cornerstone of the company's financial performance, the current growth rate of iPhone revenue is gradually slowing down, mainly because the current iPhone 16 series is approaching the midpoint of its product cycle. Looking back at the second quarter report of fiscal year 2025, the iPhone's operating income increased by 2% year-on-year, which is the 12th consecutive quarter that operating income has fluctuated within a narrow range between-10% and +10%.

According to a Canalys report, U.S. smartphone shipments increased by 1% in the second quarter of 2025 (mainly because many manufacturers continued to stock up in advance amid concerns about tariff issues), while Apple's iPhone shipments in the second quarter fell by 11% year-on-year to 13.3 million units. In contrast, Samsung's shipments increased 38% year-on-year to 8.3 million units. Motorola continued to expand in the U.S. market, growing 2% to 3.2 million units.

Revenue growth in Greater China, a key market, has also lagged behind the company's overall growth rate for seven consecutive quarters. According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), iPhone shipments in mainland China fell about 9% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025. (Fortunately, the decline between April and May narrowed to 4% year-on-year, an improvement from the 13% decline between January and March.)

Service revenue has become Apple's most stable growth engine in recent years: Apple's service revenue has maintained year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018, and has achieved double-digit year-on-year growth for six consecutive quarters. Unlike the hardware segment, which is likely to be directly affected by tariffs, services revenue is relatively unaffected by trade tensions, with gross margins far outpacing the product segment.

Still, the market has raised concerns about a potential slowdown-the number of "over 1 billion paid subscriptions" has not been updated for six quarters. In addition, at the last performance meeting, the management rarely did not provide specific revenue growth guidance for the service business. Therefore, whether Apple can continue to maintain a high growth rate in its service business with its huge user base is also a major concern of the market.

How has the stock price performed on previous earnings days?

Currently, Apple's implied change is ± 3. 50%, indicating that the options market bets on its single-day rise and fall of 3.5% after its performance; In comparison, Apple's post-performance average stock price change in the first four quarters was ± 1. 60%, indicating that the current option value of the stock is overvalued.

In the past 12 performance release days, the probability of Apple's stock price rise and fall was flat, and 6 of the 12 times closed up. The average stock price return on the performance day was ± 3. 0%. The option volatility skewness data shows that the market tends to be slightly bullish this time.

What is the wide straddle strategy

In long wide straddle options, investors buy both out-of-the-money call options and out-of-the-money put options. The strike price of a call option is higher than the current market price of the underlying asset, while the strike price of a put option is lower than the market price of the underlying asset. This strategy has huge profit potential because the call option theoretically has unlimited upside if the underlying asset price rises, while the put option can make a profit if the underlying asset price falls. The risk of the trade is limited to the premium paid for these two options.

An investor shorting a wide straddle sells an out-of-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call at the same time. This approach is a neutral strategy with limited profit potential. Shorting a wide straddle option is profitable when the underlying stock price is trading within a narrow range between break-even points. The maximum profit is equal to the premium obtained by selling two options minus the transaction cost.

Apple's short-selling wide straddle strategy case

Stock Apple is currently trading at $209. Investors can implement the short wide straddle strategy by:

Sell a call option with a strike price of $220, and premium is $85.

Sell a put option with a strike price of $195, and premium is $49.

Strategy structure: Investors sell a call option with an exercise price of $220 and receive $85 from premium, while selling a put option with an exercise price of $195 and receiving $49 from premium, with a total revenue of $134.

Maximum profit: If the stock price of AAPL is between $195 and $220 at expiration, neither option is exercised, and the investor can retain all premium. The maximum profit is $134.

Break-even point: The upward breakeven point is 220 + 1.34 =$221.34The downward breakeven point is 195-1.34 =$193.66

Maximum loss: If the AAPL matures above 221.34 or below 193.66, the loss will exceed the premium collected, and there is theoretically no upper limit. Amount of loss = excess of breakeven × $100-$134.

Strategy features: It is suitable for judging that the underlying stock price will fluctuate within a certain range. The total premium charged by this strategy is relatively high, but it is extremely sensitive to violent fluctuations in the underlying price, and risks need to be strictly controlled.