To The Moon

Jim Rogers’ decision to exit U.S. equities entirely—and Ray Dalio’s increasingly loud warnings—shouldn’t be dismissed as just another round of doomsday punditry. These aren’t TikTok day traders, but two of the most battle-tested macro investors of the last half-century. When they say America’s debt crisis is a ticking time bomb, it’s worth paying attention—even if you don’t agree with every part of their thesis.

Dalio’s call to have at least 15% in gold and crypto is a blunt reminder that diversification isn’t just about chasing the next hot sector, but preparing for the tail risk that the U.S. dollar, Treasury market, and American economic dominance may not be eternal. As U.S. debt breaks record after record, interest payments eat a growing chunk of the federal budget, and political dysfunction paralyzes Washington, the margin for error keeps shrinking. In past cycles, the U.S. always found a way out. But with deficits this big in peacetime—and a global move away from dollar-centric finance—there’s no ironclad guarantee that the future will play out like the past.

Jim Rogers’ decision to completely ditch U.S. stocks is drastic, but it’s a hedge against a true systemic crisis. If rates spike, debt spirals, or foreign buyers go on strike, the fallout could be brutal and fast. The U.S. market is priced for perfection, and any whiff of funding stress could be a shock few are prepared for.

Will “East rising, West declining” become reality? On a long enough timeline, it’s not just possible—it’s probable. The West has grown complacent, overweight debt, and used up a lot of its fiscal ammunition, while the East—especially parts of Asia—continue to build, invest, and innovate (even with all of China’s well-documented problems). You can see global capital slowly diversifying into emerging markets, commodity-rich economies, and non-dollar assets.

But don’t write off America just yet. The U.S. still has unmatched tech, military, and soft power advantages. Crises force change, and America’s track record of bouncing back is legendary. What’s different now is that the risks are bigger, and the need for genuine portfolio diversification is more urgent than ever.

Bottom line:

Rogers and Dalio are right to warn about debt—and to look East. Investors don’t have to go “all out” on U.S. stocks, but ignoring the debt elephant is foolish. Hold some gold, crypto, and emerging market exposure. The unthinkable has a way of happening—usually when everyone least expects it.