To The Moon

1. AMD: Revenue Beat, Profit Miss

Q2 2025 revenue came in at $7.69 billion, above consensus (~$7.42B) — growth was anchored by strong client, gaming, and data-centre sales .

Adjusted EPS was $0.48, slightly missing expectations (~$0.49), primarily due to ~$800 million in inventory charges tied to U.S. export controls on MI308 AI chips to China .

Outlook: Q3 revenue guided to ~$8.7B, ahead of street estimates, driven by demand for MI350/MI400 AI accelerators .

Despite the beat, shares dipped ~4–6% as investors weighed margin pressure and China export uncertainty .

Outlook on AMD’s near-term trajectory:

With Q3 guidance strong and AI momentum building, top-line strength is evident—but margins remain under pressure due to regulatory-related charges. Unless export restrictions ease, profits may continue to lag growth in the near term. Investor sentiment will hinge on China visibility and margin recovery.

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2. Super Micro (SMCI): After a ~16% plunge, a Buying Opportunity?

Reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $5.76 billion (7.5% YoY rise), but below estimates (~$5.89B). Adjusted EPS came in at ~$0.41 vs. expected ~$0.44 .

Gross margin compressed to ~9.5%, weighed by hyperscaler mix shifts and next-gen platform ramp costs; margin guidance remains flat into near term .

Nevertheless, full‑year FY 2026 revenue is expected at ≥ $33 billion, versus analyst forecasts of about $30B, implying >50% YoY growth .

Analysts highlight SMCI’s strengths in AI-focused server solutions (Data Center Building Block Solutions, liquid-cooling design) and robust free cash flow/cash position .

Is SMCI a Buy Now?

Strategic enterprise investment in AI-infrastructure demand supports long-term growth potential. However, near-term margin weakness and muted guidance create a volatile environment. If you are confident in sustained AI server demand and margin expansion over 6–12 months, SMCI could offer upside, especially given the recent sell-off. If risk-averse or focused on margin inflection, waiting for clarity may be prudent.

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3. Trump’s Proposed 100% Tariff on Imported Chips: Implications

On August 6, 2025, President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors—unless the company is building or has committed to chip production in the U.S. . Exemptions may include Apple, Nvidia, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel, etc., due to U.S. manufacturing plans .

Markets largely shrugged off the announcement; key chip stocks actually rallied or held steady, reflecting skepticism on enforcement and confidence in exemptions amid prior patterns labeled "Trump Always Chickens Out" .

Would tariffs benefit U.S.-based chipmakers like AMD, SMCI, Nvidia?

Potentially, yes—especially for companies with significant or planned U.S. production. Tariffs could disadvantage foreign chip competition, reshaping supply economics. That said:

The exemption framework may largely shield firms already investing in domestic manufacturing.

Consumer and enterprise demand may face pricing headwinds, dampening overall chip consumption.

Policy ambiguity and enforcement lag could limit immediate impact.

Firms like AMD with U.S. facilities or expansion plans might gain relative advantage. However, broader gains depend on implementation, duration, and international legal responses.

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4. Recommendations: Trade Strategy

AMD

Short to medium term: Cautiously underweight or neutral until margin clarity improves and export risk diminishes.

Mid to long term: If you believe AI-driven growth and China reentry eventually materialize, consider accumulating on weakness.

SMCI

For growth-oriented investors: A high-risk/high-reward opportunity—consider a speculative position, but size accordingly and protect downside.

For conservative traders: Wait for margin recovery confirmation and stronger guidance before building exposure.

Tariff Risk Positioning

Favor select U.S. domestic-capable chip names with visibility into manufacturing expansion (e.g. AMD, Nvidia).

Avoid exposure to companies heavily reliant on foreign production or lacking clarity on U.S. build-outs.

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🧾 Summary

Company Key Metrics Trade Perspective

AMD Revenue beat ($7.69B), EPS miss ($0.48), strong Q3 guidance Growth remains robust; watch margins and export risk

SMCI Disappointing near-term results; FY26 revenue guidance strong Long-term upside; volatile near term, size risk accordingly

Tariff Policy U.S. imports taxed at ~100% unless on-shore build-out May benefit on-shore producers; unclear implementation limits broader impact

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Final Views:

AMD: A turnover quarter with robust AI momentum but short-term margin softness; favorable long-term if export restrictions ease.

SMCI: Downside churn but AI infrastructure positioning offers potential; short-term caution warranted.

Tariffs: Conceptually positive for U.S. producers, dependent on exemptions and execution; markets are skeptical until rules and enforcement crystallize.