To The Moon

My Investment Narrative: Why I See Oklo as a Long-Term Buy

I’ve been tracking Oklo Inc. with a curated eye—admiring how this advanced nuclear developer is strategically building toward clean, scalable power. In my trading diary, I weave both the narrative of their vision and the hard numbers that anchor my confidence.

The Vision: Clean, Compact, Commercial

In essence, I find Oklo’s Aurora microreactor poised to unlock a nuclear renaissance: compact, fast-neutron reactors providing 15–50 MWe (scalable to 100 MWe), operable for up to a decade without refueling. They target off-grid use—AI data centers, military sites, remote industrial zones—selling power under a “build-own-operate” model instead of just hardware. This aligns with my belief in infrastructure that multiplies recurring value instead of one-off sales. 

Alongside, Oklo’s acquisition of Atomic Alchemy adds a compelling revenue stream: radioisotopes for medical imaging, diagnostics, research, and defense. This diversification gives me comfort that Oklo isn’t reliant solely on reactors.  

What the Numbers Tell Me

Q1 2025: Operational Discipline

• Net loss stood at $9.8 million, aided by $4 million in investment income and tax benefits—a clear improvement from last year’s $24 million loss.   

• Operating loss was $17.9 million, chiefly funding product development and strategic acquisitions.  

• EPS came in at –$0.07, beating expectations of –$0.08—a small but meaningful win. 

These results signal disciplined expense control, even amid heavy R&D investment.

Balance Sheet: Weathering Development

• Total assets: ~$302.1 million (up from ~$281.7 million at end-2024)

• Total liabilities: ~$32.8 million

• Shareholders’ equity (NAV): ~$269.3 million 

Liquidity & Cash Burn

• Cash and equivalents + marketable securities: ~$260.7 million as of March 31, 2025

• Cash used in operations: ~$12.2 million that quarter

• Accumulated deficit: ~$144.9 million  

So, Oklo has a robust ~3–4 years of runway, assuming consistent spend—comforting for a capital-intensive tech play.

Looking Ahead

• Analysts expect 2025 EBITDA to be around –$77.8 million, improving modestly to –$94 million in 2027, reflecting sustained investment before revenue begins. 

Catalysts I’m Watching

• Site Progress: Completed borehole drilling at a proposed Idaho site—crucial groundwork for building the first reactor by late 2027 or early 2028. 

• Growing Engagement: A pipeline exceeding 14 GW in letters of intent with data centers and defense sectors positions Oklo as a serious future supplier. 

• Wall Street’s Reaction: Following earnings, the stock surged ~15% midweek, riding broader nuclear tailwinds and an outperform rating from Wedbush, which highlighted Oklo’s promising build-own-operate model. 

My Trade-Diary Perspective

Reflecting in my diary’s voice:

• Entry point logic: I’m investing in a company ahead of infrastructure rollout. Oklo reminds me of early solar or wind developers—capital-heavy, but with sweeping long-term upside as infrastructure deploys.

• Patience required: Oklo won’t trade like a fast-growth tech stock. I’m building conviction now so that when commercial reactors go live, the payoff could be multiples.

• Risk mitigators: I feel safer knowing Oklo has strong liquidity, minimal debt, and is executing on both reactor and isotope fronts. Even if SMR commercialization takes longer, the isotopes business provides options.

Summing Up in My Diary Style

Oklo is the kind of deep-infrastructure, long-horizon play I log carefully. Each quarter, I check: Are they advancing licensing, booking GW of demand, managing costs, and maintaining cash? Q1 2025 hits the checkboxes. With analysts pointing toward future profitability once reactors and isotope lines come online, I’m holding steady—this is a high-conviction bet, but one that could reshape how AI and remote sectors get power.

$Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$  

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