π Xiaomi (01810.HK / XIACY) β 2025 Outlook
π Technicals
Xiaomi has been in a solid uptrend this year, trading near HK$52β53 after rallying on Q2 earnings.
β’ Resistance: HK$56β61 (previous top) π§
β’ Support: HK$49β50, then HK$45 π‘οΈ
β’ Momentum: Break above HK$56 could re-test highs, while slip under HK$49 risks pullback.
π Chart shows bulls in control, but profit-taking likely near resistance.
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π° Fundamentals
Q2 results beat expectations:
β’ Revenue: RMB116B (+31% YoY) π
β’ Adj. Net Profit: RMB10.8β11.9B (+75% YoY) π
β’ Smartphones: RMB45.5B (-2% YoY) π± β pressure from ASP declines.
β’ IoT & Lifestyle: RMB38.7B (+45% YoY) π β strong demand for appliances & wearables.
β’ EVs: RMB20.6B (~3Γ YoY) π β still early but growing fast.
Valuation remains rich: ~P/E 52 trailing, ~30 forward, P/S ~3.3. Market is clearly pricing in EV upside.
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β‘ EV Foray & Growth Potential
β’ SU7 sedan launched 2024; YU7 SUV launched June 2025, starting RMB253.5k β drew 240k+ orders in 18 hrs π€―.
β’ Deliveries: >300k cumulative by July; ~30k in July alone ποΈ.
β’ Global expansion: Europe entry eyed for 2027 π.
π Revenue scenarios (2026 est.):
β’ Bear: 300k units Γ RMB230k = RMB69B
β’ Base: 500k units Γ RMB240k = RMB120B
β’ Bull: 800k units Γ RMB250k = RMB200B
At Base case, EVs could contribute ~25% of group revenue β a major shift from todayβs smartphone-heavy mix.
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π Macro & Market Context
β’ China support: RMB81B trade-in subsidies for appliances, phones, EVs β tailwind for Xiaomi π π±π.
β’ EV market: NEV penetration ~50% in China; July sales +27% YoY β‘. Fierce competition (Tesla, BYD, Nio) keeps margins tight.
β’ Smartphones: Global shipments just +1% YoY β stabilizing but sluggish π.
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π Investment View
β’ Bull case: Xiaomi transforms from smartphone brand to integrated tech + EV giant, leveraging brand, ecosystem, and IoT synergies. EVs add new growth leg. π
β’ Bear case: EV margins crushed in price war; smartphone ASPs keep sliding; China demand recovery stalls. β οΈ
β’ Key risks: Trade tariffs (EU/US on China EVs), competition, execution on EV scaling.
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π― Takeaway
Xiaomiβs 31% revenue growth shows the EV pivot is working. IoT remains a strong second engine, while smartphones stabilize. The stock trades at premium multiples, justified only if EV scaling hits at least 500k units/year by 2026 with healthy margins.
For traders: HK$56 breakout = bullish continuation.
For investors: Watch EV delivery cadence + China consumer data.
PS: Do your own research too and not financial advice. I entered Xiaomi at 14HKD at the announcement they venturing into EV, it was a slight gamble that works out. Seems like they are really making waves. Let's see
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- WINTERINΒ·08-21TOPIncredible insights, thanks for sharing! ππ1Report
- Porter HarryΒ·08-21TOPWow! I trust the long-term value of Xiaomi.1Report