To The Moon

On September 2, 2025 (Tuesday, ET), U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta issued the final remedies in the Google search-monopoly case:

• The DOJ’s breakup request was denied—Google will not be forced to divest Chrome or Android.

• Google must cease exclusive default-search contracts, share limited search-index and user-interaction data with rivals, and increase ad-auction transparency.

• Google may continue to pay $Apple(AAPL)$ ~$20 billion per year to remain the default search engine on iPhones.

Market reaction

• Alphabet A-shares $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ jumped ~9% the next session, hitting an all-time intraday high; B-shares $Alphabet(GOOG)$ rose in tandem, adding roughly $180 billion in market cap—about the value of two Cambricon-sized companies.

• 2× leveraged ETFs surged:
  – Direxion Daily GOOGL Bull 2× $DIREXION DAILY GOOGL BULL 2X SHARES(GGLL)$ leapt 18.6% on record volume of $273 million.
  – T-REX 2× Long Alphabet Daily Target $T-REX 2X LONG ALPHABET DAILY TARGET ETF(GOOX)$ gained 17.99% with nearly $12 million traded—both topped the US leveraged-ETF leaderboard.

Investment thesis

• Worst-case scenario removed—no structural break-up; core ad/data assets intact; Street raised 2026-27 EPS estimates.

• Distribution ecosystem unchanged—Safari default payments stay, benefiting Apple (+3.8%).

• Judge cited AI-driven competition (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity) as reason not to impose harsher remedies, easing long-run monopoly-risk discount.

What to watch next

• Ad-tech trial (Sept. hearings) still looms—DOJ wants Google to sell DoubleClick/AdX; potential bigger revenue hit if forced.

• Appeals could run into 2027; data-sharing provisions take effect in 60 days—monitor impact on search differentiation and privacy compliance costs.

Bottom line
Near-term “major win” for Google—no break-up plus preserved Apple deal triggered sharp rallies in GOOGL/GOOG and 2× ETFs. Medium-term upside still hinges on ad-tech verdict and AI-search share shifts.

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