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09-07

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Zhang Yidong: A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will get out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate

解释了港股长牛的内在原因。

Zhang Yidong: A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will get out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":475929976660544,"tweetId":"475929976660544","gmtCreate":1757221308307,"gmtModify":1757221313207,"author":{"id":4153290226491872,"idStr":"4153290226491872","authorId":4153290226491872,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>Naive</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Naive</body></html>","text":"Naive","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/475929976660544","repostId":2565589615,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2565589615","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1757039705,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2565589615?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-09-05 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will get out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565589615","media":"投资作业本Pro","summary":"解释了港股长牛的内在原因。","content":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategist, expounded the logic that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will usher in a 20-year super bull market from two aspects: \"dividend of the times\" and \"visible hand guidance of the country\", and further explained the internal reasons for the long bull market in Hong Kong from the four characteristics of the Hong Kong market.The main points are as follows:1. A super-long bull of China's equity assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, may emerge from a super-long bull that has lasted for more than 20 years.2. For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and have bubbles. We should look at problems from a developmental perspective. Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early days of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate, which played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.But I'm not suggesting that everyone chase high without thinking, I just say that this phenomenon has the significance of the times. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental return rate did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return rate is high, everyone doesn't buy it.In fact, this is the tide of the times, and we should look at problems from the perspective of development. This super long bull is called Times Make Heroes.3. Please don't still think about mad cows and fast cows (this bull market in China). It's impossible, it must be a long cow.The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national power and visible hand are leading.We will learn the lesson of the mad cow in 2014-2015-the leveraged cow will eventually be a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback on the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to save the market. This is a painful lesson.4. I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) dominated by the visible hand to a \"little white rabbit-style long bull\".The little white rabbit dashes and runs quickly in the tortoise and hare race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up energetically and rushes again, sleeps and rushes again.This Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that goes up the stairs with periodic rapid rise and adjustment.The long cow in the United States is a turtle-style slow cow.5. (China) This long bull moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020, and the real estate long bull that has been prosperous for more than 20 years: it moves faster and the popularity is high, and the policy regulation will be suppressed; When it's cold, the policy will be supported, and it will move forward in such a shock.6. This round of long-term cattle is not for a few speculators and rich capitalists to cut the country's leeks, but to revitalize social wealth through long-term cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.Through this round of market conditions, local government-related assets have been listed and realized.7. The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.Before 2023, we often talked about learning from Western models, and that China's stock market was an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.But 2023 has changed qualitatively. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profits from righteousness, not mercenary.Seeking profit from righteousness means looking at the national righteousness, the national righteousness, and how to better improve the long-term perspective of the country<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Benefits.8. The short-term herding effect doesn't need to be envious or hated.Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front of them, feeling that if they don't enter the bull market, it will be over.I said that the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what is there to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, rather than being afraid of stepping short when they rise a little, and being afraid of getting stuck when they fall a little.9. The first point of Hong Kong characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.The second point is that from the perspective of funds, Hong Kong stocks, like A-shares, will benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.The third point is that the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from that from 21 to the beginning of 24.Fourth, an important feature of this round of long-term Hong Kong stock market is that the underlying investment logic of Hong Kong stocks has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to Chinese pan-Chinese capital, China and China's circle of friends, or this pan-Chinese capital that agrees with China's development concept. Capital-led onshore marketization.10. Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks, there will be no market.This kind of mentality is still stuck in the thinking mode of a small country with few people, and we simply don't realize that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude all over the world.11. China's economic structure is definitely not Japan's in the 1990s and 2000s. What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave from the middle to late 1980s to the first half of 1990s.12. Whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.So don't pay too much attention to the macro, as long as the macro is stable-it will neither collapse nor hot, and it will move towards high-quality development moderately.13. Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is a virtuous circle of ecological environment.A-share Hong Kong stocks may emerge from the 20-year super-long bullQ: Mr. Yidong, let me first review a performance of the Hong Kong stock market in August. Including you also mentioned that Hong Kong stocks will go out of the super long bull. What is the main basis for this judgment?Zhang Yidong: I want to share it with you from two dimensions. FirstLet's talk about a super-long bull in China's equity assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may have emerged from a super-long bull that has lasted for more than 20 years.This is an important macro narrative, and the most critical macro narrative is actually our economic growth mode. The transformation of China's economic growth mode has brought about a golden development period of China's equity assets.From the 1990s to 2023, overall, it was the expansion period of China's old kinetic energy.What is China's old kinetic energy? It is a debt expansion and relatively extensive economic growth mode.Since 1998, the era of real estate has begun. The continuous expansion of real estate has brought about a golden age of financing in China, which corresponds to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.But around 2020, after the expansion of China's overall balance sheet, some development confusion began to appear, that is, the painful period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy that began in 2020 was quietly coming. The economic growth momentum represented by real estate is slowing down significantly.The debt-expansionary economic growth mode is becoming more and more inefficient. China's three balance sheets-the residential sector, the enterprise sector and the government department-have all experienced a high debt ratio after the expansion of the past two or three decades.The most important thing is that every increase in debt has a weaker and weaker pulling effect on GDP. At this time, if China's economy wants to turn to high-quality development and transform into a country driven by technological innovation, it needs to pay attention to direct financing and make use of the empowerment of the capital market.Let's briefly review the debt ratio issue.China's healthiest balance sheet is that of the central government. As of the end of 2024, the balance of China's Treasury Bond is only 34.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 26% of GDP. During the same period, the debt ratio of the U.S. federal government was as high as 36 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 126.8% of GDP, about 100 percentage points higher than ours.Our worry lies in local debt. Without considering hidden debt, according to data from the Academy of Social Sciences, the local government debt ratio in a narrow sense may be as high as about 40%.The IMF's calculation may be higher. We have room for the expansion of the government debt ratio. We have to do it, but we can't do it.China's economy has no systemic risks and needs to change its economic development modeWe know that the government can hold the bottom, and the Chinese economy has no hard landing or systemic risks.But the current development question is, should we continue to take the road of debt expansion, or should we change the path?If we want to take the road of debt expansion, we have to look at the other two tables-the balance sheets of the corporate sector and the residential sector.The balance sheet of China's residential sector used to be very healthy, and Chinese people had the habit of saving. But unfortunately, since 2008, especially after 2016, the balance sheet of China's residential sector has also been expanding rapidly.In 2008, the ratio of household sector debt to GDP was less than 20%, about 17%-18%. But by 24 years, the debt ratio of the household sector was close to 60%, while that of the United States was only about 70%. There is very limited room for debt expansion in the residential sector, and there is a ceiling.Because our national character is based on frugality as its virtue, and it is an introverted nation.It is difficult for our residential sector debt ratio to be higher than that of the United States. The debt ratio of the corporate sector has also remained high. As of the third quarter of last year, the debt ratio of China's corporate sector was as high as 142%, not including local<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600649\">Chengtou</a>Platform companies, if added may be higher.In contrast, in the United States, the debt ratio of the corporate sector is only about 74%. These data let us know that it is imperative to change China's economic development model.So don't have fantasies, everyone. Now some overseas economists are always making crooked tricks, complaining about why the Chinese government doesn't expand and why it doesn't learn from the American model and release water. That's not the case. There are no systemic risks in China's economy. Why not improve the efficiency of economic growth? The problem of China's economy is to change its development model.Where is the focus of changing the development model? Just like the asset classification table, our focus in the past 30 years has been on debt-driven GDP growth. However, relying on the old kinetic energy of iron public foundation and real estate, the efficiency is getting lower and lower.Because the base is already very high, it is more of a bottom-up role. Guarantee economic sustainability. High-quality development and efficient development must change the growth mode.The role of the capital market in the next 20 years is to revitalize assetsNow it's very simple. Looking at the balance sheet, you can't just look at assets, but also at liabilities. In the next 20 years or even longer, the role of the capital market is to revitalize assets.By revitalizing assets and improving efficiency, we will strive to expand globally and become the most competitive company for China's technological innovation, new consumption and core assets in traditional mature industries.So the future capital market is just like the role of real estate in the period of debt expansion in the past two or three decades.During the period of debt expansion, real estate is the hub that affects the whole body and the core channel of China's currency expansion and credit creation. In the current era of high-quality development, to revitalize assets, the capital market has played a role in affecting the whole body.It realizes the optimal allocation of social wealth by revitalizing the balance sheet of enterprises and residents.The social wealth accumulated in the past 40 years of reform and opening up is now basically piled up in some inefficient or safe-haven assets.It is necessary to invest this wealth in more efficient fields through the capital market, such as new productivity such as hard technology, high technology and new consumption, so as to drive a virtuous circle of high-quality development of the capital market and the real economy.Why do you grow cattle in twenty or thirty years?With this understanding, we can know that not only Hong Kong stocks, but also A-shares will go out of the super long bull. Growing a bull is a small goal, maybe twenty or thirty years. Why is twenty or thirty years just right?We know an important event: by the middle of this century, China will complete Chinese-style modernization.Chinese-style modernization is divided into two steps: the first step is from 2020 to 2035-note that the time node of 2020 is the year when China's old and new kinetic energy begins to switch. We are beginning to feel the pain of the decline of old kinetic energy, and new kinetic energy has not yet stood out.But it's different now. With the comprehensive improvement of technology in DeepSeek, sixth-generation aircraft, innovative drugs, robots and other aspects at the beginning of this year, especially the rise of China's military technology and even the global leadership after the conflict between India and Pakistan on May 7 and the military parade on September 3, let us see new kinetic energy beginning to spring up like mushrooms.Chinese-style modernization is already on the way. We have stepped out of the shock period of switching between old and new driving forces, and the economy has begun to stabilize.From 2020 to 2035 is the first step of Chinese-style modernization, basically realizing socialist modernization.Significant progress has been made in the fields of economy, science and technology, culture, ecology, etc., especially to rank among the forefront of innovative countries. You know, in the 20-30 years of economic development from 1990s to 2020, it was mainly driven by debt expansion.Moreover, we were in the process of moving from an agricultural society-dominated economy to an industrialized and urbanized large-scale economy.After that, China will move from a large economy to a powerful country, be able to innovate independently and become the forefront of innovative countries.All this makes us see that this is the dividend of the times, and we should embrace this dividend. Because both the stock market and the property market are just carriers, and the times make heroes.At present, China's economic development model just makes the capital market play the most important and pivotal role.It can revitalize social wealth, revitalize the asset side of the balance sheet, and exert efficiency.For a simple example, about half of residents' wealth is in real estate, which is basically trapped. However, the rental return rate of real estate in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities has begun to exceed the risk-free rate of return, so there is no need to panic and sell. But the golden age of real estate is over, there's no doubt about it.Therefore, if residents' wealth is in real estate, they can wait, but if there are many houses, they can be further revitalized, and efficiency can be exerted through the capital market from an inefficient and stalemate state.More conservatively, as of the end of June this year, the savings deposits of Chinese residents reached 162 trillion yuan, plus more than 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and the social wealth in a large number of fixed-income assets such as insurance, social security, and pensions will definitely exceed 200 trillions by simple calculation.How to revitalize the more than 200 trillion yuan? In addition to real estate (accounting for about 250 trillion yuan of social wealth), the other half of residents' wealth is more than 200 trillion yuan.This asset has higher liquidity and should be actively deployed to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, so as to exert higher efficiency and better resource allocation efficiency through the capital market, and then form the wealth effect of social wealth.Let entrepreneurs no longer lie flat, especially private entrepreneurs no longer always consider global allocation and capital outflow, but more actively participate in the tide of new productivity in China.\"Hanwang\" was questioned as too expensive? Rising is created by the times, and we must look at problems from the perspective of developmentFor example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and have bubbles. We should look at problems from a developmental perspective.Its benchmarking function is like the \"fool melon seeds\" in the early days of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.The rise is created by the times, not calculated by static old-fashioned EPS and short-term PE.From the perspective of social development, this time, the technology companies in China's Beijing Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Main Board, especially the good companies corresponding to the AI wave, are experiencing Davis' double-click, and their performance and valuation are both rising..But I'm not suggesting that everyone chase high without thinking, I just say that this phenomenon has the significance of the times. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental return rate did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return rate is high, everyone doesn't buy it.In fact, this is the tide of the times, and we should look at problems from the perspective of development.The wealth-creating effect and wealth effect of the capital market attract attention, making entrepreneurs willing to invest in venture capital, be angel investors, and invest in scientific and technological fields such as semiconductors, robots, innovative drugs, low-altitude economy, and AI, forming a single spark that can start a prairie fire. The capital market helps social wealth optimize resource allocation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>By participating in the capital market (for example, buying funds this year basically outperformed the index), after wealth improves, risk appetite increases, and marginal consumption propensity also increases. That's why I watch Super Long Bull,This super long bull is called Times Make Heroes.Now that Chinese-style modernization is moving towards the middle of this century, the development in the next two decades or so will be high-quality development, optimizing resource allocation through the capital market, and revitalizing the balance sheets of the government, residents, and enterprises.Use asset-side expansion to resolve debt worries. When assets expand, the asset-liability ratio will naturally come down, and the panic about liabilities will be completely and effectively reduced.This is the first point I talked about-the dividend of the times.Everyone, please don't think about mad cows or fast cows, it's impossible, it must be long cowsThe second point,The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national power and visible hand are leading.Let's use data to look at it. The Central Financial Work Conference will be held at the end of October 2023, and it is clearly stated that we must unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially different from the Western financial model.The western financial model is market-oriented, purely absolute market-oriented, and to put it bluntly, it is interest-oriented.Over the years, the inefficient shipbuilding, steel, textiles and clothing in the United States have all been transferred to other countries. It is very difficult for the United States to return its manufacturing industry. At most, it can return some advanced manufacturing industries in high-tech fields, but inefficient and unprofitable manufacturing industries cannot be returned.This is the characteristic of the American capital market, that is, interest-oriented.Chinese-style development models are different. Especially after the 20th National Congress in 2022, we put more emphasis on the party's leadership, the party's leadership of everything, and the leadership of party building.Under this background, the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics is political, people-oriented and functional, and the visible hand is leading.The requirement for the capital market is to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a promising government.Learning the 2014-2015 Mad Cow Lessons--The leveraged bull is eventually a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to save the market. This is a painful lesson.So don't think about mad cows and fast cows. It's impossible. It must be long cows.This long bull's way of moving is like the real estate from 1998 to 2020: when it goes faster and the popularity is high, policy regulation will be suppressed; When it's cold, the policy will be supported, and it will move forward in such a shock.I compare the image of the long bull in the Chinese stock market (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) dominated by the visible hand to a \"little white rabbit-style long bull\", drawing lessons from the operation mode of the turtle and the little white rabbit in the tortoise and hare race.America's long cow is a turtle-style slow cow,Because of its market-oriented and profit-seeking, it has a strong and rich short-selling mechanism and three-dimensional trading mechanism. If it rises fast, some people will make money by shorting.China's short-selling mechanism is relatively imperfect, and the interests of small and medium-sized investors must be protected as a whole.Under the background of Chinese characteristics, we should adapt measures to local conditions and don't blindly copy others, otherwise it will become a joke that \"Huainan is orange and Huaibei is orange\". The development model suitable for national conditions is truly effective.So we say nowEmphasizing the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics in the context of China, in line with other aspects of the party's leadership of Chinese-style modernization.Under this circumstance, to understand China's long-term bull, we can learn from the long-term bull of the real estate boom for more than 20 years.But this long cow is not a turtle-style slow cow, but a \"little white rabbit-style long cow\":The little white rabbit dashes and runs quickly in the tortoise and hare race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up energetically and rushes again, sleeps and rushes again.Our capital market lacks a rich market-oriented short-selling mechanism. Once the sentiment comesNow, rush headlong into it,The herding effect is very strong。 In addition, there are now high-frequency quantitative subjects, and their influence is getting bigger and bigger, so they are moving very fast.It's no problem to walk fast, but there will be regulation, which is nothing more than \"add noodles if you have more water, and add water if you have more noodles\". Now there is a virtuous circle, long-term funds enter the market, and \"savings and moving\" is in the ascendant (just at the beginning), and it is still relatively healthy now.The overall market has accelerated a bit since June. It doesn't matter if you accelerate. After acceleration, the IPO rhythm and refinancing rhythm will definitely be liberalized in the future. This is a deduction of rules.Because this round of long-term cattle is not for a few speculators and rich capitalists to cut the country's leeks, but to revitalize social wealth through long-term cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises, and residents.Through this round of market conditions, local government-related assets have been listed and realized.Before 2020, local governments were more involved in land finance and railway public foundation, but after 2020, the Hefei model became a common practice, and various places learned from the Hefei model, including Xi'an, Changsha, Pearl River Delta, and Yangtze River Delta.Hefei model is equity finance. By actively intervening in the capital market and capital operation, it empowers the local real economy and forms a virtuous circle.Government parent funds have been set up as seed funds in various places to attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01315\">Green Economy</a>, low-altitude economy, AI technology, robotics and other innovative fields.If these new productivity assets cannot be realized for a long time, they are assets without valuation, and may even be constantly discounted, which is not conducive to the improvement of the balance sheet.On the other hand, if through mergers and acquisitions (the next step of mergers and acquisitions in China's capital market will flourish again), through fast fish eating slow fish, big fish eating small fish, and leading companies exchange stocks for off-exchange assets and unlisted company equity, a virtuous circle will be formed.Listed companies have gained incremental growth momentum, increased net assets, and were driven by both valuation and profitability.For local governments, the original cost price of assets is even lower than the cost price (if bought at a high price, it may be revalued downward), and the balance sheet deteriorates.But now that it has been acquired by listed companies, the equity and assets held by local governments have suddenly doubled, rapidly improving the balance sheet. The same is true for enterprises, especially some private enterprises with high asset-liability ratios, which may want to quit but have no channel.If leading companies in the same industry acquire over-the-counter assets by exchanging stocks for equity (plus a little cash, which may be refinanced), the competition pattern in the industry will be optimized and the survival of the fittest will be quickly formed.All these let us see that the capital market is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Era</a>Under the guidance of the visible hand of the government, we will efficiently promote China's high-quality development.Before 2023 and Now are Two Stock MarketsSo for us,The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.Before 2023, we often talked about learning from Western models, and that China's stock market was an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.But 2023 has changed qualitatively. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profits from righteousness, not mercenary.Profit from righteousness means looking at the national righteousness, the national righteousness, and how to better improve the welfare of the whole people from the long-term perspective of the country.Therefore, China's capital market now has a great sense of historical mission. Through its own activity, it forms positive feedback with the real economy and technological innovation. Everyone makes money, the country develops, and Chinese-style modernization gains internal driving force.This is my second point-the visible hand leads this Chinese-style long bull.This Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that goes up the stairs with periodic rapid rise and adjustment. This is China's national condition, because China's capital market lacks (a rich and powerful market-oriented short-selling mechanism). And we don't want to use the western pure market-oriented model to engage in so many short-selling mechanisms.Our \"short-selling mechanism\" is: since it is so excited and the valuation is so high, it is good to serve socialism and the real economy more, and carry out mergers and acquisitions, asset injection, refinancing and IPO.This is a short-selling mechanism with Chinese characteristics, which curbs excessive excitement and speculation in the market, and allows the market to continue to serve economic development.There is no need to envy or hate the short-term herding effect. Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front of them, feeling that if they don't enter the bull market, it will be over.I said that the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what is there to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, rather than being afraid of stepping short when they rise a little, and being afraid of getting stuck when they fall a little. In fact, I didn't understand this round of long bull from the essence.This is the general trend: first, the dividend of the times, and second, the visible hand is leading and leading.This logic applies to both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which is a big logic. Because 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 have been consolidated by shocks.Starting from 2024, Hong Kong will also accelerate its integration into the overall development of the motherland with the reopening in 2023 (the shadow of the epidemic is lifted).One of the characteristics of Hong Kong's long bull: embracing the motherland and empowering the countryOn the second level, let's share the logic of Hong Kong itself.What I just talked about is the ultra-long bull market logic suitable for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Let's think again about the characteristics and characteristics of Hong Kong itself, which are mainly divided into the following aspects.What are the characteristics of this round of market in Hong Kong? It is to embrace the motherland and the overall development of the motherland.Starting from the end of 2023, Hong Kong's entire political and economic landscape can be summarized in four words: from governance to prosperity-from governance and rectification to revitalization and development, the country has begun to actively empower.A landmark turning point signal is that the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to \"consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center.\"We saw an unhealthy trend spreading rumors in 2023 that Hong Kong was already an \"international financial center heritage\" and was no longer an international financial center.The Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated the empowerment of the country and clearly proposed to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. This is the first point of Hong Kong's characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.The second characteristic of Hong Kong's long bull: wealth flows from safe-haven assets to Hong Kong stocksThe second point is that from the perspective of funds, Hong Kong stocks, like A-shares, will benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.This tide is in the ascendant-in July this year, household savings decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan in that month, while in the second quarter, household savings deposits increased by 5 trillion yuan. The wave of reallocation of social wealth from safe-haven assets to the stock market has just begun, and it is a virtuous circle.As long as it is not a mad cow, as long as it is a market climbing the stairs, the allocation rhythm will be relatively gentle.An indicator we need to pay attention to is: from 2022 to the first half of 2023, there will be a small climax in time deposits of Chinese residents. At that time, the three-year fixed deposit interest rate could basically reach about 3%, but now the three-year fixed deposit interest rate may only be about 1.7%.What is the yield of a ten-year Treasury Bond? It's also around 1.7%. The seven-day annualized rate of return of money funds such as Yu'ebao may be around 1%. The predetermined interest rate of insurance life insurance has now dropped to about 2%.In times like this,The price/performance ratio of equity assets is actually better than that of safe-haven assets. Therefore, in this case, both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. Let's not sell ourselves short.We are already the second largest economy in the world, so we don't have to always pay attention to foreign investmentMany investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks, there will be no market.This kind of mentality is still stuck in the thinking mode of a small country with few people, and we simply don't realize that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude all over the world.After 40 years of reform and opening up, we are not like Latin America or Southeast Asia. We have not experienced a financial crisis and have not been robbed by western capital. Our wealth has accumulated, but now it is piled up in safe-haven assets.In the next step, under the guidance of the dividend of the times and national policies, and driven by the visible hand, the blocking point of long-term funds entering the market has been opened.In addition to long-term funds, national teams,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300368\">Huijin</a>In addition to insurance and social security, we believe that \"the rat pulls the wooden shovel-the big head is behind\": the whole social wealth, residents' savings and moving, and the social wealth from bank wealth management, money funds, fixed-income assets, and even insurance dividend-paying assets to reallocate equity assets.I think this is a big trend, a big trend of the times. This state is just like when everyone went to buy a house in the 2000s. At first, they doubted whether it would work, but when it rose too much, they were afraid.You see, in 2004 and 2005, a bunch of people shouted that Shanghai's housing prices had a bubble and were about to collapse. As a result, from 2004 and 2005 to 2020, the average housing price in Shanghai rose from 4,100 yuan/square meter to more than 100,000 yuan/square meter in urban areas.SoIt is advisable to look at the scenery and look at the problem from a big historical perspective.So we say,The second point is that there is hope for both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, and I think this is inevitable-it will definitely benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. As the saying goes, \"planting plane trees will attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">phoenix</a>Come \".The third characteristic of Hong Kong stocks' long bull: the ecological environment accelerates a virtuous cycleIn the third aspect, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from 2021 to the beginning of 2024.In the past few years, due to the switch between old and new driving forces, such as the Hong Kong real estate chain, the suppression of real estate-related industrial chains by preventing disorderly expansion of capital, and the regulation of education and training industries, before the beginning of 2024, the fundamentals of Hong Kong as a whole and the fundamentals of listed companies are lifeless, everyone is relatively pessimistic, and funds are crowded on the dividend assets of purely safe-haven central enterprises, regarding them as bond dividend assets, such as three barrels of oil, four major banks, and three major operators. But everyone is very pessimistic about dynamic and growing assets.At that time, overseas suppressed Chinese assets, and overseas investors had three major expectations. They have been suppressing Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. As a result, the proportion of short selling Hong Kong stocks in August 2023 reached an outrageous 35%. Short selling Hong Kong stocks became the two most crowded trading strategies in the world.At that time, the \"three mountains\" were: First, I felt that China's economy would have a hard landing when dragged down by real estate, that is, \"China's economic crisis theory\", which has been falsified; Second, we feel that China's technology is backward, and the United States is stuck in advanced semiconductors and AI; Third, the \"exit theory of private enterprises\", because the switch between old and new kinetic energy at that time had an impact on private enterprise real estate and the Internet.Therefore, at that time, foreign capital kept withdrawing, and it was felt that Chinese assets only had transaction value and no investment value. Even now, there are still a few overseas investors who have not changed.But what we want to talk about is that since the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, especially since September 24 and September 26 last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08111\">PRC Industry</a>The pattern of development and economic development has been very clear, but many people can't understand it.We should look at this issue in the framework of political economy, rather than purely western financial thinking.Now, from the Politburo meeting in September last year to encourage the development of private enterprises, to the private enterprise symposium on February 17th this year, and then to the Private Economy Promotion Law in May, a series of measures have shown that the \"private enterprise exit theory\" has been overturned and falsified.Not only that, most of the new consumption, innovative drugs, robots, semiconductors, etc. on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and even Hong Kong stocks are private capital and private enterprises on the rise and rapid development.The so-called \"theory of China's technological backwardness\" has also been thrown into<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>, because as mentioned at the beginning, whether it is DeepSeek, AI, robotics, military technology or innovative drugs, we have made comprehensive breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level, showing a trend of catching up or even leading the world.The so-called \"China's economic hard landing theory\" or \"China-Japan model theory\" are constantly being overturned and falsified.Because I just said that the balance sheet of China's central government is very clean enough to protect against major systemic risks.At the same time, China is the largest domestic demand market in the world-from the perspective of commodity consumption, we are already the largest market in the world. The reason why the United States is the largest market in the world is that its service consumption is much larger than ours.But purely from that perspective of commodity consumption, China is already the world's largest domestic demand market,So we are different from Japan back then.New kinetic energy has begun to flourish, and China's economy has begun to stabilize and slowly move towards a process of high-quality development and improvement.I said that China's economic structure is definitely not Japan's in the 1990s and 2000s.What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave from the middle to late 1980s to the first half of 1990s.At that time, the domestic demand of the U.S. economy was also hovering at a low level, but emerging business models such as Sam's Store and Costco began to rise. At that time, the famous fund manager Peter Lynch was looking for whatever stocks his wife and children bought.Now, whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.So don't pay too much attention to the macro, as long as the macro is stable-it will neither collapse nor hot, and it will move towards high-quality development moderately.Under such circumstances, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks continues to have a virtuous circle, especially high-quality private capital, technology, new consumption, and innovative drug companies have listed in Hong Kong, bringing vitality and leadership to the market.Domestic and overseas incremental funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, including prophetic and actively managed foreign capital with a correct understanding of China, which has been deployed since the first half of this year, such as South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan Province in China, and Singapore in Southeast Asia.FalseOver time, as the profit-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.The fourth characteristic of Hong Kong stocks' long-term bull: foreign-led offshore marketization shifts to pan-Chinese-led onshore marketizationFourthly, an important feature of this round of long-term Hong Kong stock market is that the underlying investment logic has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by China, Chinese capital and Chinese circle of friends (pan-Chinese capital that agrees with China's development concept). market.What is the difference between the offshore market and the onshore market?The offshore market is usually peripheral and non-core, so if you look at it for a long time, whether it is mainland Chinese investors or foreign investors, it is like crossing the river-when A shares rise, Hong Kong stocks will pass as a depression. If you can't make money, you will come back, and you don't regard Hong Kong stocks as the main battlefield;Foreign capital is also a wave when U.S. stocks rise too much and see that Hong Kong stocks are in a depression. If they rise too much, they will lighten their positions or even short, such as poverty alleviation and offshore markets.The onshore market is different.The onshore market has long-term judgment and embrace of high-quality companies. Look at the most typical U.S. stocks-the onshore market, such as the bond market,Local funds are the anchor and pillar of the sea. If good assets fall too much, there will be funds based on the medium and long-term layout. Unlike the offshore market, the short-selling power becomes more fierce and the decline becomes endless.We believeThis change in the investment logic of the Hong Kong stock market is to shift from the offshore market to the onshore market.You can see that the investment style has also changed: It turns out that Deep Value (Deep Value) gives a premium around certainty, so dividend-type Deep Value assets have a great chance of making money when they bounce; Now the investment style in the onshore market is more diversified.In addition to value stocks (as a shield to support the upward movement of the center, especially the continuous revaluation of dividend assets, traditional industry leaders and core assets), growth assets represented by technology, new consumption and innovative drugs will give a growth premium-high growth gives high valuation.This is the charm of the onshore market: domestic computing power can be valued hundreds of times in A-shares. In the US stock market, if you look at technology, innovation and even rare earth stocks that are obviously bad, they are also valued at a market dream rate.It doesn't mean that the valuation of mature markets is necessarily low, U.S. stocks have actually given a premium to growth stocks in recent years.Therefore, the onshore market is characterized by more diversified styles and both offensive and defensive: There are opportunities for value stocks and opportunities for growth stocks, and growth stocks will give premiums based on growth.</body></html>","source":"lsy1716810789658","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will get out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will get out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n投资作业本Pro2025-09-05 10:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategist, expounded the logic that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will usher in a 20-year super bull market from two aspects: \"dividend of the times\" and \"visible hand guidance of the country\", and further explained the internal reasons for the long bull market in Hong Kong from the four characteristics of the Hong Kong market.The main points are as follows:1. A super-long bull of China's equity assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, may emerge from a super-long bull that has lasted for more than 20 years.2. For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and have bubbles. We should look at problems from a developmental perspective. Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early days of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate, which played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.But I'm not suggesting that everyone chase high without thinking, I just say that this phenomenon has the significance of the times. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental return rate did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return rate is high, everyone doesn't buy it.In fact, this is the tide of the times, and we should look at problems from the perspective of development. This super long bull is called Times Make Heroes.3. Please don't still think about mad cows and fast cows (this bull market in China). It's impossible, it must be a long cow.The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national power and visible hand are leading.We will learn the lesson of the mad cow in 2014-2015-the leveraged cow will eventually be a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback on the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to save the market. This is a painful lesson.4. I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) dominated by the visible hand to a \"little white rabbit-style long bull\".The little white rabbit dashes and runs quickly in the tortoise and hare race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up energetically and rushes again, sleeps and rushes again.This Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that goes up the stairs with periodic rapid rise and adjustment.The long cow in the United States is a turtle-style slow cow.5. (China) This long bull moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020, and the real estate long bull that has been prosperous for more than 20 years: it moves faster and the popularity is high, and the policy regulation will be suppressed; When it's cold, the policy will be supported, and it will move forward in such a shock.6. This round of long-term cattle is not for a few speculators and rich capitalists to cut the country's leeks, but to revitalize social wealth through long-term cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.Through this round of market conditions, local government-related assets have been listed and realized.7. The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.Before 2023, we often talked about learning from Western models, and that China's stock market was an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.But 2023 has changed qualitatively. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profits from righteousness, not mercenary.Seeking profit from righteousness means looking at the national righteousness, the national righteousness, and how to better improve the long-term perspective of the country<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Benefits.8. The short-term herding effect doesn't need to be envious or hated.Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front of them, feeling that if they don't enter the bull market, it will be over.I said that the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what is there to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, rather than being afraid of stepping short when they rise a little, and being afraid of getting stuck when they fall a little.9. The first point of Hong Kong characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.The second point is that from the perspective of funds, Hong Kong stocks, like A-shares, will benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.The third point is that the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from that from 21 to the beginning of 24.Fourth, an important feature of this round of long-term Hong Kong stock market is that the underlying investment logic of Hong Kong stocks has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to Chinese pan-Chinese capital, China and China's circle of friends, or this pan-Chinese capital that agrees with China's development concept. Capital-led onshore marketization.10. Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks, there will be no market.This kind of mentality is still stuck in the thinking mode of a small country with few people, and we simply don't realize that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude all over the world.11. China's economic structure is definitely not Japan's in the 1990s and 2000s. What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave from the middle to late 1980s to the first half of 1990s.12. Whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.So don't pay too much attention to the macro, as long as the macro is stable-it will neither collapse nor hot, and it will move towards high-quality development moderately.13. Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is a virtuous circle of ecological environment.A-share Hong Kong stocks may emerge from the 20-year super-long bullQ: Mr. Yidong, let me first review a performance of the Hong Kong stock market in August. Including you also mentioned that Hong Kong stocks will go out of the super long bull. What is the main basis for this judgment?Zhang Yidong: I want to share it with you from two dimensions. FirstLet's talk about a super-long bull in China's equity assets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may have emerged from a super-long bull that has lasted for more than 20 years.This is an important macro narrative, and the most critical macro narrative is actually our economic growth mode. The transformation of China's economic growth mode has brought about a golden development period of China's equity assets.From the 1990s to 2023, overall, it was the expansion period of China's old kinetic energy.What is China's old kinetic energy? It is a debt expansion and relatively extensive economic growth mode.Since 1998, the era of real estate has begun. The continuous expansion of real estate has brought about a golden age of financing in China, which corresponds to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.But around 2020, after the expansion of China's overall balance sheet, some development confusion began to appear, that is, the painful period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy that began in 2020 was quietly coming. The economic growth momentum represented by real estate is slowing down significantly.The debt-expansionary economic growth mode is becoming more and more inefficient. China's three balance sheets-the residential sector, the enterprise sector and the government department-have all experienced a high debt ratio after the expansion of the past two or three decades.The most important thing is that every increase in debt has a weaker and weaker pulling effect on GDP. At this time, if China's economy wants to turn to high-quality development and transform into a country driven by technological innovation, it needs to pay attention to direct financing and make use of the empowerment of the capital market.Let's briefly review the debt ratio issue.China's healthiest balance sheet is that of the central government. As of the end of 2024, the balance of China's Treasury Bond is only 34.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 26% of GDP. During the same period, the debt ratio of the U.S. federal government was as high as 36 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 126.8% of GDP, about 100 percentage points higher than ours.Our worry lies in local debt. Without considering hidden debt, according to data from the Academy of Social Sciences, the local government debt ratio in a narrow sense may be as high as about 40%.The IMF's calculation may be higher. We have room for the expansion of the government debt ratio. We have to do it, but we can't do it.China's economy has no systemic risks and needs to change its economic development modeWe know that the government can hold the bottom, and the Chinese economy has no hard landing or systemic risks.But the current development question is, should we continue to take the road of debt expansion, or should we change the path?If we want to take the road of debt expansion, we have to look at the other two tables-the balance sheets of the corporate sector and the residential sector.The balance sheet of China's residential sector used to be very healthy, and Chinese people had the habit of saving. But unfortunately, since 2008, especially after 2016, the balance sheet of China's residential sector has also been expanding rapidly.In 2008, the ratio of household sector debt to GDP was less than 20%, about 17%-18%. But by 24 years, the debt ratio of the household sector was close to 60%, while that of the United States was only about 70%. There is very limited room for debt expansion in the residential sector, and there is a ceiling.Because our national character is based on frugality as its virtue, and it is an introverted nation.It is difficult for our residential sector debt ratio to be higher than that of the United States. The debt ratio of the corporate sector has also remained high. As of the third quarter of last year, the debt ratio of China's corporate sector was as high as 142%, not including local<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600649\">Chengtou</a>Platform companies, if added may be higher.In contrast, in the United States, the debt ratio of the corporate sector is only about 74%. These data let us know that it is imperative to change China's economic development model.So don't have fantasies, everyone. Now some overseas economists are always making crooked tricks, complaining about why the Chinese government doesn't expand and why it doesn't learn from the American model and release water. That's not the case. There are no systemic risks in China's economy. Why not improve the efficiency of economic growth? The problem of China's economy is to change its development model.Where is the focus of changing the development model? Just like the asset classification table, our focus in the past 30 years has been on debt-driven GDP growth. However, relying on the old kinetic energy of iron public foundation and real estate, the efficiency is getting lower and lower.Because the base is already very high, it is more of a bottom-up role. Guarantee economic sustainability. High-quality development and efficient development must change the growth mode.The role of the capital market in the next 20 years is to revitalize assetsNow it's very simple. Looking at the balance sheet, you can't just look at assets, but also at liabilities. In the next 20 years or even longer, the role of the capital market is to revitalize assets.By revitalizing assets and improving efficiency, we will strive to expand globally and become the most competitive company for China's technological innovation, new consumption and core assets in traditional mature industries.So the future capital market is just like the role of real estate in the period of debt expansion in the past two or three decades.During the period of debt expansion, real estate is the hub that affects the whole body and the core channel of China's currency expansion and credit creation. In the current era of high-quality development, to revitalize assets, the capital market has played a role in affecting the whole body.It realizes the optimal allocation of social wealth by revitalizing the balance sheet of enterprises and residents.The social wealth accumulated in the past 40 years of reform and opening up is now basically piled up in some inefficient or safe-haven assets.It is necessary to invest this wealth in more efficient fields through the capital market, such as new productivity such as hard technology, high technology and new consumption, so as to drive a virtuous circle of high-quality development of the capital market and the real economy.Why do you grow cattle in twenty or thirty years?With this understanding, we can know that not only Hong Kong stocks, but also A-shares will go out of the super long bull. Growing a bull is a small goal, maybe twenty or thirty years. Why is twenty or thirty years just right?We know an important event: by the middle of this century, China will complete Chinese-style modernization.Chinese-style modernization is divided into two steps: the first step is from 2020 to 2035-note that the time node of 2020 is the year when China's old and new kinetic energy begins to switch. We are beginning to feel the pain of the decline of old kinetic energy, and new kinetic energy has not yet stood out.But it's different now. With the comprehensive improvement of technology in DeepSeek, sixth-generation aircraft, innovative drugs, robots and other aspects at the beginning of this year, especially the rise of China's military technology and even the global leadership after the conflict between India and Pakistan on May 7 and the military parade on September 3, let us see new kinetic energy beginning to spring up like mushrooms.Chinese-style modernization is already on the way. We have stepped out of the shock period of switching between old and new driving forces, and the economy has begun to stabilize.From 2020 to 2035 is the first step of Chinese-style modernization, basically realizing socialist modernization.Significant progress has been made in the fields of economy, science and technology, culture, ecology, etc., especially to rank among the forefront of innovative countries. You know, in the 20-30 years of economic development from 1990s to 2020, it was mainly driven by debt expansion.Moreover, we were in the process of moving from an agricultural society-dominated economy to an industrialized and urbanized large-scale economy.After that, China will move from a large economy to a powerful country, be able to innovate independently and become the forefront of innovative countries.All this makes us see that this is the dividend of the times, and we should embrace this dividend. Because both the stock market and the property market are just carriers, and the times make heroes.At present, China's economic development model just makes the capital market play the most important and pivotal role.It can revitalize social wealth, revitalize the asset side of the balance sheet, and exert efficiency.For a simple example, about half of residents' wealth is in real estate, which is basically trapped. However, the rental return rate of real estate in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities has begun to exceed the risk-free rate of return, so there is no need to panic and sell. But the golden age of real estate is over, there's no doubt about it.Therefore, if residents' wealth is in real estate, they can wait, but if there are many houses, they can be further revitalized, and efficiency can be exerted through the capital market from an inefficient and stalemate state.More conservatively, as of the end of June this year, the savings deposits of Chinese residents reached 162 trillion yuan, plus more than 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and the social wealth in a large number of fixed-income assets such as insurance, social security, and pensions will definitely exceed 200 trillions by simple calculation.How to revitalize the more than 200 trillion yuan? In addition to real estate (accounting for about 250 trillion yuan of social wealth), the other half of residents' wealth is more than 200 trillion yuan.This asset has higher liquidity and should be actively deployed to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, so as to exert higher efficiency and better resource allocation efficiency through the capital market, and then form the wealth effect of social wealth.Let entrepreneurs no longer lie flat, especially private entrepreneurs no longer always consider global allocation and capital outflow, but more actively participate in the tide of new productivity in China.\"Hanwang\" was questioned as too expensive? Rising is created by the times, and we must look at problems from the perspective of developmentFor example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and have bubbles. We should look at problems from a developmental perspective.Its benchmarking function is like the \"fool melon seeds\" in the early days of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.The rise is created by the times, not calculated by static old-fashioned EPS and short-term PE.From the perspective of social development, this time, the technology companies in China's Beijing Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Main Board, especially the good companies corresponding to the AI wave, are experiencing Davis' double-click, and their performance and valuation are both rising..But I'm not suggesting that everyone chase high without thinking, I just say that this phenomenon has the significance of the times. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental return rate did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return rate is high, everyone doesn't buy it.In fact, this is the tide of the times, and we should look at problems from the perspective of development.The wealth-creating effect and wealth effect of the capital market attract attention, making entrepreneurs willing to invest in venture capital, be angel investors, and invest in scientific and technological fields such as semiconductors, robots, innovative drugs, low-altitude economy, and AI, forming a single spark that can start a prairie fire. The capital market helps social wealth optimize resource allocation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>By participating in the capital market (for example, buying funds this year basically outperformed the index), after wealth improves, risk appetite increases, and marginal consumption propensity also increases. That's why I watch Super Long Bull,This super long bull is called Times Make Heroes.Now that Chinese-style modernization is moving towards the middle of this century, the development in the next two decades or so will be high-quality development, optimizing resource allocation through the capital market, and revitalizing the balance sheets of the government, residents, and enterprises.Use asset-side expansion to resolve debt worries. When assets expand, the asset-liability ratio will naturally come down, and the panic about liabilities will be completely and effectively reduced.This is the first point I talked about-the dividend of the times.Everyone, please don't think about mad cows or fast cows, it's impossible, it must be long cowsThe second point,The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national power and visible hand are leading.Let's use data to look at it. The Central Financial Work Conference will be held at the end of October 2023, and it is clearly stated that we must unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially different from the Western financial model.The western financial model is market-oriented, purely absolute market-oriented, and to put it bluntly, it is interest-oriented.Over the years, the inefficient shipbuilding, steel, textiles and clothing in the United States have all been transferred to other countries. It is very difficult for the United States to return its manufacturing industry. At most, it can return some advanced manufacturing industries in high-tech fields, but inefficient and unprofitable manufacturing industries cannot be returned.This is the characteristic of the American capital market, that is, interest-oriented.Chinese-style development models are different. Especially after the 20th National Congress in 2022, we put more emphasis on the party's leadership, the party's leadership of everything, and the leadership of party building.Under this background, the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics is political, people-oriented and functional, and the visible hand is leading.The requirement for the capital market is to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a promising government.Learning the 2014-2015 Mad Cow Lessons--The leveraged bull is eventually a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to save the market. This is a painful lesson.So don't think about mad cows and fast cows. It's impossible. It must be long cows.This long bull's way of moving is like the real estate from 1998 to 2020: when it goes faster and the popularity is high, policy regulation will be suppressed; When it's cold, the policy will be supported, and it will move forward in such a shock.I compare the image of the long bull in the Chinese stock market (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) dominated by the visible hand to a \"little white rabbit-style long bull\", drawing lessons from the operation mode of the turtle and the little white rabbit in the tortoise and hare race.America's long cow is a turtle-style slow cow,Because of its market-oriented and profit-seeking, it has a strong and rich short-selling mechanism and three-dimensional trading mechanism. If it rises fast, some people will make money by shorting.China's short-selling mechanism is relatively imperfect, and the interests of small and medium-sized investors must be protected as a whole.Under the background of Chinese characteristics, we should adapt measures to local conditions and don't blindly copy others, otherwise it will become a joke that \"Huainan is orange and Huaibei is orange\". The development model suitable for national conditions is truly effective.So we say nowEmphasizing the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics in the context of China, in line with other aspects of the party's leadership of Chinese-style modernization.Under this circumstance, to understand China's long-term bull, we can learn from the long-term bull of the real estate boom for more than 20 years.But this long cow is not a turtle-style slow cow, but a \"little white rabbit-style long cow\":The little white rabbit dashes and runs quickly in the tortoise and hare race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up energetically and rushes again, sleeps and rushes again.Our capital market lacks a rich market-oriented short-selling mechanism. Once the sentiment comesNow, rush headlong into it,The herding effect is very strong。 In addition, there are now high-frequency quantitative subjects, and their influence is getting bigger and bigger, so they are moving very fast.It's no problem to walk fast, but there will be regulation, which is nothing more than \"add noodles if you have more water, and add water if you have more noodles\". Now there is a virtuous circle, long-term funds enter the market, and \"savings and moving\" is in the ascendant (just at the beginning), and it is still relatively healthy now.The overall market has accelerated a bit since June. It doesn't matter if you accelerate. After acceleration, the IPO rhythm and refinancing rhythm will definitely be liberalized in the future. This is a deduction of rules.Because this round of long-term cattle is not for a few speculators and rich capitalists to cut the country's leeks, but to revitalize social wealth through long-term cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises, and residents.Through this round of market conditions, local government-related assets have been listed and realized.Before 2020, local governments were more involved in land finance and railway public foundation, but after 2020, the Hefei model became a common practice, and various places learned from the Hefei model, including Xi'an, Changsha, Pearl River Delta, and Yangtze River Delta.Hefei model is equity finance. By actively intervening in the capital market and capital operation, it empowers the local real economy and forms a virtuous circle.Government parent funds have been set up as seed funds in various places to attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01315\">Green Economy</a>, low-altitude economy, AI technology, robotics and other innovative fields.If these new productivity assets cannot be realized for a long time, they are assets without valuation, and may even be constantly discounted, which is not conducive to the improvement of the balance sheet.On the other hand, if through mergers and acquisitions (the next step of mergers and acquisitions in China's capital market will flourish again), through fast fish eating slow fish, big fish eating small fish, and leading companies exchange stocks for off-exchange assets and unlisted company equity, a virtuous circle will be formed.Listed companies have gained incremental growth momentum, increased net assets, and were driven by both valuation and profitability.For local governments, the original cost price of assets is even lower than the cost price (if bought at a high price, it may be revalued downward), and the balance sheet deteriorates.But now that it has been acquired by listed companies, the equity and assets held by local governments have suddenly doubled, rapidly improving the balance sheet. The same is true for enterprises, especially some private enterprises with high asset-liability ratios, which may want to quit but have no channel.If leading companies in the same industry acquire over-the-counter assets by exchanging stocks for equity (plus a little cash, which may be refinanced), the competition pattern in the industry will be optimized and the survival of the fittest will be quickly formed.All these let us see that the capital market is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Era</a>Under the guidance of the visible hand of the government, we will efficiently promote China's high-quality development.Before 2023 and Now are Two Stock MarketsSo for us,The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.Before 2023, we often talked about learning from Western models, and that China's stock market was an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.But 2023 has changed qualitatively. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profits from righteousness, not mercenary.Profit from righteousness means looking at the national righteousness, the national righteousness, and how to better improve the welfare of the whole people from the long-term perspective of the country.Therefore, China's capital market now has a great sense of historical mission. Through its own activity, it forms positive feedback with the real economy and technological innovation. Everyone makes money, the country develops, and Chinese-style modernization gains internal driving force.This is my second point-the visible hand leads this Chinese-style long bull.This Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that goes up the stairs with periodic rapid rise and adjustment. This is China's national condition, because China's capital market lacks (a rich and powerful market-oriented short-selling mechanism). And we don't want to use the western pure market-oriented model to engage in so many short-selling mechanisms.Our \"short-selling mechanism\" is: since it is so excited and the valuation is so high, it is good to serve socialism and the real economy more, and carry out mergers and acquisitions, asset injection, refinancing and IPO.This is a short-selling mechanism with Chinese characteristics, which curbs excessive excitement and speculation in the market, and allows the market to continue to serve economic development.There is no need to envy or hate the short-term herding effect. Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front of them, feeling that if they don't enter the bull market, it will be over.I said that the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what is there to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, rather than being afraid of stepping short when they rise a little, and being afraid of getting stuck when they fall a little. In fact, I didn't understand this round of long bull from the essence.This is the general trend: first, the dividend of the times, and second, the visible hand is leading and leading.This logic applies to both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which is a big logic. Because 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 have been consolidated by shocks.Starting from 2024, Hong Kong will also accelerate its integration into the overall development of the motherland with the reopening in 2023 (the shadow of the epidemic is lifted).One of the characteristics of Hong Kong's long bull: embracing the motherland and empowering the countryOn the second level, let's share the logic of Hong Kong itself.What I just talked about is the ultra-long bull market logic suitable for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Let's think again about the characteristics and characteristics of Hong Kong itself, which are mainly divided into the following aspects.What are the characteristics of this round of market in Hong Kong? It is to embrace the motherland and the overall development of the motherland.Starting from the end of 2023, Hong Kong's entire political and economic landscape can be summarized in four words: from governance to prosperity-from governance and rectification to revitalization and development, the country has begun to actively empower.A landmark turning point signal is that the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to \"consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center.\"We saw an unhealthy trend spreading rumors in 2023 that Hong Kong was already an \"international financial center heritage\" and was no longer an international financial center.The Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated the empowerment of the country and clearly proposed to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. This is the first point of Hong Kong's characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.The second characteristic of Hong Kong's long bull: wealth flows from safe-haven assets to Hong Kong stocksThe second point is that from the perspective of funds, Hong Kong stocks, like A-shares, will benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.This tide is in the ascendant-in July this year, household savings decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan in that month, while in the second quarter, household savings deposits increased by 5 trillion yuan. The wave of reallocation of social wealth from safe-haven assets to the stock market has just begun, and it is a virtuous circle.As long as it is not a mad cow, as long as it is a market climbing the stairs, the allocation rhythm will be relatively gentle.An indicator we need to pay attention to is: from 2022 to the first half of 2023, there will be a small climax in time deposits of Chinese residents. At that time, the three-year fixed deposit interest rate could basically reach about 3%, but now the three-year fixed deposit interest rate may only be about 1.7%.What is the yield of a ten-year Treasury Bond? It's also around 1.7%. The seven-day annualized rate of return of money funds such as Yu'ebao may be around 1%. The predetermined interest rate of insurance life insurance has now dropped to about 2%.In times like this,The price/performance ratio of equity assets is actually better than that of safe-haven assets. Therefore, in this case, both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. Let's not sell ourselves short.We are already the second largest economy in the world, so we don't have to always pay attention to foreign investmentMany investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks, there will be no market.This kind of mentality is still stuck in the thinking mode of a small country with few people, and we simply don't realize that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude all over the world.After 40 years of reform and opening up, we are not like Latin America or Southeast Asia. We have not experienced a financial crisis and have not been robbed by western capital. Our wealth has accumulated, but now it is piled up in safe-haven assets.In the next step, under the guidance of the dividend of the times and national policies, and driven by the visible hand, the blocking point of long-term funds entering the market has been opened.In addition to long-term funds, national teams,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300368\">Huijin</a>In addition to insurance and social security, we believe that \"the rat pulls the wooden shovel-the big head is behind\": the whole social wealth, residents' savings and moving, and the social wealth from bank wealth management, money funds, fixed-income assets, and even insurance dividend-paying assets to reallocate equity assets.I think this is a big trend, a big trend of the times. This state is just like when everyone went to buy a house in the 2000s. At first, they doubted whether it would work, but when it rose too much, they were afraid.You see, in 2004 and 2005, a bunch of people shouted that Shanghai's housing prices had a bubble and were about to collapse. As a result, from 2004 and 2005 to 2020, the average housing price in Shanghai rose from 4,100 yuan/square meter to more than 100,000 yuan/square meter in urban areas.SoIt is advisable to look at the scenery and look at the problem from a big historical perspective.So we say,The second point is that there is hope for both Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, and I think this is inevitable-it will definitely benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. As the saying goes, \"planting plane trees will attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">phoenix</a>Come \".The third characteristic of Hong Kong stocks' long bull: the ecological environment accelerates a virtuous cycleIn the third aspect, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from 2021 to the beginning of 2024.In the past few years, due to the switch between old and new driving forces, such as the Hong Kong real estate chain, the suppression of real estate-related industrial chains by preventing disorderly expansion of capital, and the regulation of education and training industries, before the beginning of 2024, the fundamentals of Hong Kong as a whole and the fundamentals of listed companies are lifeless, everyone is relatively pessimistic, and funds are crowded on the dividend assets of purely safe-haven central enterprises, regarding them as bond dividend assets, such as three barrels of oil, four major banks, and three major operators. But everyone is very pessimistic about dynamic and growing assets.At that time, overseas suppressed Chinese assets, and overseas investors had three major expectations. They have been suppressing Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. As a result, the proportion of short selling Hong Kong stocks in August 2023 reached an outrageous 35%. Short selling Hong Kong stocks became the two most crowded trading strategies in the world.At that time, the \"three mountains\" were: First, I felt that China's economy would have a hard landing when dragged down by real estate, that is, \"China's economic crisis theory\", which has been falsified; Second, we feel that China's technology is backward, and the United States is stuck in advanced semiconductors and AI; Third, the \"exit theory of private enterprises\", because the switch between old and new kinetic energy at that time had an impact on private enterprise real estate and the Internet.Therefore, at that time, foreign capital kept withdrawing, and it was felt that Chinese assets only had transaction value and no investment value. Even now, there are still a few overseas investors who have not changed.But what we want to talk about is that since the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, especially since September 24 and September 26 last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08111\">PRC Industry</a>The pattern of development and economic development has been very clear, but many people can't understand it.We should look at this issue in the framework of political economy, rather than purely western financial thinking.Now, from the Politburo meeting in September last year to encourage the development of private enterprises, to the private enterprise symposium on February 17th this year, and then to the Private Economy Promotion Law in May, a series of measures have shown that the \"private enterprise exit theory\" has been overturned and falsified.Not only that, most of the new consumption, innovative drugs, robots, semiconductors, etc. on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and even Hong Kong stocks are private capital and private enterprises on the rise and rapid development.The so-called \"theory of China's technological backwardness\" has also been thrown into<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>, because as mentioned at the beginning, whether it is DeepSeek, AI, robotics, military technology or innovative drugs, we have made comprehensive breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level, showing a trend of catching up or even leading the world.The so-called \"China's economic hard landing theory\" or \"China-Japan model theory\" are constantly being overturned and falsified.Because I just said that the balance sheet of China's central government is very clean enough to protect against major systemic risks.At the same time, China is the largest domestic demand market in the world-from the perspective of commodity consumption, we are already the largest market in the world. The reason why the United States is the largest market in the world is that its service consumption is much larger than ours.But purely from that perspective of commodity consumption, China is already the world's largest domestic demand market,So we are different from Japan back then.New kinetic energy has begun to flourish, and China's economy has begun to stabilize and slowly move towards a process of high-quality development and improvement.I said that China's economic structure is definitely not Japan's in the 1990s and 2000s.What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave from the middle to late 1980s to the first half of 1990s.At that time, the domestic demand of the U.S. economy was also hovering at a low level, but emerging business models such as Sam's Store and Costco began to rise. At that time, the famous fund manager Peter Lynch was looking for whatever stocks his wife and children bought.Now, whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.So don't pay too much attention to the macro, as long as the macro is stable-it will neither collapse nor hot, and it will move towards high-quality development moderately.Under such circumstances, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks continues to have a virtuous circle, especially high-quality private capital, technology, new consumption, and innovative drug companies have listed in Hong Kong, bringing vitality and leadership to the market.Domestic and overseas incremental funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, including prophetic and actively managed foreign capital with a correct understanding of China, which has been deployed since the first half of this year, such as South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan Province in China, and Singapore in Southeast Asia.FalseOver time, as the profit-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.The fourth characteristic of Hong Kong stocks' long-term bull: foreign-led offshore marketization shifts to pan-Chinese-led onshore marketizationFourthly, an important feature of this round of long-term Hong Kong stock market is that the underlying investment logic has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by China, Chinese capital and Chinese circle of friends (pan-Chinese capital that agrees with China's development concept). market.What is the difference between the offshore market and the onshore market?The offshore market is usually peripheral and non-core, so if you look at it for a long time, whether it is mainland Chinese investors or foreign investors, it is like crossing the river-when A shares rise, Hong Kong stocks will pass as a depression. If you can't make money, you will come back, and you don't regard Hong Kong stocks as the main battlefield;Foreign capital is also a wave when U.S. stocks rise too much and see that Hong Kong stocks are in a depression. If they rise too much, they will lighten their positions or even short, such as poverty alleviation and offshore markets.The onshore market is different.The onshore market has long-term judgment and embrace of high-quality companies. Look at the most typical U.S. stocks-the onshore market, such as the bond market,Local funds are the anchor and pillar of the sea. If good assets fall too much, there will be funds based on the medium and long-term layout. Unlike the offshore market, the short-selling power becomes more fierce and the decline becomes endless.We believeThis change in the investment logic of the Hong Kong stock market is to shift from the offshore market to the onshore market.You can see that the investment style has also changed: It turns out that Deep Value (Deep Value) gives a premium around certainty, so dividend-type Deep Value assets have a great chance of making money when they bounce; Now the investment style in the onshore market is more diversified.In addition to value stocks (as a shield to support the upward movement of the center, especially the continuous revaluation of dividend assets, traditional industry leaders and core assets), growth assets represented by technology, new consumption and innovative drugs will give a growth premium-high growth gives high valuation.This is the charm of the onshore market: domestic computing power can be valued hundreds of times in A-shares. In the US stock market, if you look at technology, innovation and even rare earth stocks that are obviously bad, they are also valued at a market dream rate.It doesn't mean that the valuation of mature markets is necessarily low, U.S. stocks have actually given a premium to growth stocks in recent years.Therefore, the onshore market is characterized by more diversified styles and both offensive and defensive: There are opportunities for value stocks and opportunities for growth stocks, and growth stocks will give premiums based on growth.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Wl6i8VXDqZpFbKkL6XE82Q\">投资作业本Pro</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Wl6i8VXDqZpFbKkL6XE82Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2565589615","content_text":"兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东从“时代红利”和“国家有形之手引导”两个方面，阐述了A股与港股将迎来二十年超级牛市的逻辑，并进一步从香港市场的四个特点出发，解释了港股长牛的内在原因。要点如下：1、中国权益资产的一个超级长牛，包括A股和港股，可能都会走出一个长达二十多年的超级长牛。2、比如很多人质疑国产算力所谓的“寒王们”太贵、有泡沫。我们要以发展眼光看问题。它的标杆作用好比改革开放初期的“傻子瓜子”，或者一线城市房价持续飙升对整个房地产的拉动作用，当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。但我并不是建议大家无脑追高，只是说这个现象有时代意义。就像当年00年代上海房子，老觉得贵，老说租金回报率与收入不匹配。现在收入匹配了，租金回报率高了，大家反而不买了。这其实是时代浪潮，要用发展眼光看问题。这个超级长牛叫做时势造英雄。3、大家千万不要还想（中国这轮牛市）疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛。这次和以前最大不同是国家力量、有形之手在引领。会吸取2014-2015年疯牛教训——杠杆牛最终一地鸡毛，国家没有通过资本市场对实体经济形成正反馈，反而要拿出大量资源救市，这是沉痛教训。4、我把这次有形之手主导下的中国股市（A股和港股）长牛形象比喻为“小白兔式长牛”。小白兔在龟兔赛跑中猛冲、快速跑，然后睡一觉调整，睡醒精神抖擞再冲，再睡再冲。这次中国式“小白兔长牛”是伴随阶段性快涨和调整、拾级而上的长牛。美国的长牛是乌龟式慢牛。5、（中国）这个长牛走法像1998年到2020年的房地产，繁荣二十多年的地产长牛：走快了、热度高了，政策调控就压一压；冷了，政策就托一托，如此震荡前行。6、这轮长牛不是为了少数投机分子、有钱资本家割国家韭菜，而是通过长牛盘活社会财富，帮助改善地方政府、企业、居民的资产负债表。通过这轮行情，地方政府相关资产上市变现。7、2023年之前的中国股市和2023年之后的中国股市是两个股市。2023年之前我们动辄讲学习西方模式，动辄讲中国股市是新兴加转轨市场，觉得自己不成熟，要向西方成熟市场学习。但2023年发生质的变化。2023年中央金融工作会议讲得很清楚，我们本质上不同于西方金融模式，我们是以义取利，而不是唯利是图。以义取利就是看民族大义、国家大义，看国家长期角度如何更好提升全民福利。8、短期的羊群效应不用羡慕嫉妒恨。很多人前面涨得快就焦急得不得了，觉得再不进去牛市就结束了。我说牛市远没有结束，可能是20年的牛市，有什么好担心？要更多关注资产本身，而不是涨一点怕踏空、跌一点怕套牢。9、香港特色的第一点：拥抱祖国，国家赋能。第二点是从资金面角度来说，港股和A股一样都将受益于中国社会财富（特别是居民财富）从避险资产向股票、向权益资产再配置的大潮。第三点，港股生态环境在加速良性循环，这跟21年到24年年初是不一样的。第四点，这轮港股长牛的一个重要特色是港股的底层投资逻辑从外资主导的离岸市场化转向中国泛中资，中国和中国的朋友圈，或者认同中国发展理念的这种泛中资主导的在岸市场化。10、很多投资者老是问我外资什么时候来，好像外资不来A股港股就没有行情一样。这种心态还停留在小国寡民的思维模式中，根本没有意识到我们已经是世界第二大经济体，我们的社会财富在全球都是一个惊人的量级。11、中国经济格局绝对不是90年代、00年代的日本。我们更像什么？我认为中国更可比的是80年代中后期到90年代上半期互联网浪潮兴起前的美国。12、中国现在无论是科技、新消费、创新药，还是很多结构性亮点，可说是此起彼伏。所以不用太在意宏观，宏观稳住就好——既不会崩也不会热，是温和走向高质量发展。13、假以时日，随着中国长牛赚钱效应持续，中东、欧洲的钱甚至华尔街都会回来，美国对冲基金也会来赚钱。这就是生态环境的良性循环。A股港股可能走出二十年超级长牛问：忆东总，先回顾一下八月港股市场的一个表现。包括你也曾提到说港股将走出超级长牛，请问这一判断的主要依据是什么呢？张忆东：我想从两个维度来跟大家分享吧。首先我们来说一说中国权益资产的一个超级长牛，包括A股和港股，可能都会走出一个长达二十多年的超级长牛。这是一个重要的宏观叙事，最关键的宏观叙事其实是我们的经济增长方式。中国经济增长方式的转变，带来了中国权益资产的黄金发展期。从90年代一直到2023年，总体来看，那是中国旧动能的扩张期。中国旧动能是什么呢？是一种债务扩张型的、相对粗放的经济增长方式。从1998年开始，房地产大时代开启。房地产的持续扩张带来了中国融资的黄金时代，对应的是城镇化、工业化的快速发展。但到2020年左右，中国整体资产负债表扩张后，开始出现一些发展困惑，也就是2020年开始的新旧动能转换阵痛期悄然来临。以房地产为代表的经济增长动能正在显著放缓。债务扩张型的经济增长方式正在越来越低效。中国的三张资产负债表——居民部门、企业部门和政府部门，经过过去二三十年的扩张，都出现了债务率偏高的状态。最关键的是，每增加一分债务，对GDP的拉动效应越来越弱。这个时候，中国经济要转向高质量发展，要转型为科技创新驱动型国家，就需要关注直接融资，要利用资本市场的赋能。我们简单回顾一下债务率问题。中国最健康的一张资产负债表是中央政府的资产负债表。截至2024年底，中国国债余额只有34.5万亿人民币，占GDP的比例约26%。同期美国联邦政府的债务率高达36万亿美元，占GDP的比例约126.8%，比我们高了约100个百分点。我们的隐忧在地方债务。不考虑隐性债务的情况下，根据社科院数据，狭义的地方政府债务率可能高达40%左右。IMF的计算可能更高。政府债务率我们是有扩张空间的，非不能也，实不为也。中国经济没有系统性风险，需要转变经济发展方式我们知道政府可以hold住底，中国经济没有硬着陆或系统性风险。但现在的发展问题是，我们究竟继续走债务扩张的路，还是换条路径？如果要走债务扩张之路，我们还要看其他两张表——企业部门和居民部门的资产负债表。中国居民部门的资产负债表曾经非常健康，中国人有储蓄习惯。但遗憾的是，从08年特别是2016年后，中国居民部门的资产负债表也在快速扩张。08年居民部门债务占GDP比率不到20%，约17%-18%。但到24年，居民部门债务率已接近60%，而美国也不过70%左右。居民部门债务扩张空间非常有限，有天花板。因为我们的民族性是以节俭为美德，是内敛型的民族。我们的居民部门债务率很难比美国更高。企业部门的债务率也持续居高不下。截至去年24年三季度，中国企业部门债务率高达142%，这还不包括地方城投平台公司，如果加上可能更高。反观美国，企业部门债务率只有74%左右。这些数据让我们知道中国经济发展模式转变势在必行。所以大家不要有幻想。现在有些海外经济学家老出歪招，抱怨中国政府为什么不扩张，为什么不学美国模式大放水。不是这么回事，中国经济没有系统性风险，为什么不好好提升经济增长效率？中国经济的问题是转变发展模式。转变发展模式的侧重点在哪儿？就像资产分类表，过去30年我们的重点是债务驱动GDP增长。但靠铁公基、靠房地产这种旧动能，效率越来越低了。因为基数已经很高，它更多是兜底的作用。保证经济可持续性。高质量发展、有效率的发展一定要换增长方式。未来20年资本市场作用是盘活资产现在很简单，看资产负债表不能只看资产，还要看负债。未来20年甚至更长时间，资本市场的作用就是盘活资产。通过盘活资产、提升效率，为中国的科技创新、新消费以及传统成熟行业的核心资产进行全球扩张、成为最有竞争力的公司而努力。所以未来的资本市场，就像过去二三十年在债务扩张时期房地产的作用一样。在债务扩张时期，房地产是牵一发而动全身的枢纽，是中国货币扩张、信用创造的核心渠道。现在高质量发展时代要盘活资产，资本市场就起到了牵一发而动全身的作用。它通过盘活企业资产负债表、居民资产负债表，实现社会财富的优化配置。过去40年改革开放积累的社会财富，现在基本上堆积在一些低效或避险资产里。需要通过资本市场把这些财富投入到更高效的领域，如硬科技、高科技和新消费等新生产力上面，驱动资本市场和实体经济高质量发展的良性循环。为什么是二三十年长牛？这样理解就能知道，不单是港股，A股也会走出超级长牛。长牛是小目标，可能就是二三十年。为什幺二三十年刚好？我们知道一个重要事件：到本世纪中叶，中国要完成中国式现代化。中国式现代化分两步走：第一步从2020年到2035年——注意2020年这个时间节点，是中国新旧动能开始转换的年份，我们开始感受旧动能退坡的痛，新动能尚未脱颖而出。但现在不一样了，随着今年年初DeepSeek、六代机、创新药、机器人等方面科技全面提升，特别是5月7日印巴冲突后到9月3日阅兵式展现的中国军工科技崛起甚至全球领先，让我们看到新动能开始如雨后春笋般兴起。中国式现代化已经在路上，我们已经走出了新旧动能切换的震动期，经济开始企稳。从2020年到2035年是中国式现代化的第一步，基本实现社会主义现代化。在经济、科技、文化、生态等各领域取得重大进展，特别是要跻身创新型国家前列。要知道，在90年代到2020年的二三十年经济发展过程中，主要是债务扩张驱动模式。而且我们当时是从农业社会为主的经济体走向工业化、城镇化大型经济体的过程。之后中国要从大型经济体走向强国，要能够自主创新，成为创新型国家前列。这一切让我们看到这是时代红利，要拥抱这个红利。因为无论是股市还是楼市，都只是载体，时势造英雄。现在中国经济发展模式刚好让资本市场起到最重要、牵一发而动全身的枢纽作用。它能够盘活社会财富，盘活资产负债表资产端，发挥效率。简单举个例子，居民财富一半左右在房地产上，基本上被套住了。但房地产在一二线城市核心区域的租金回报率已经开始超过无风险收益率，所以没必要惊慌失措抛售。但房地产的黄金时代已经过去，这毫无疑问。所以居民财富如果在房地产上，可以再等等，但如果房子多，可以进一步盘活，从低效、僵持状态通过资本市场发挥效率。更加保守的是，截至今年6月底，中国居民储蓄存款高达162万亿，加上30多万亿银行理财，大量保险、社保、养老金等固收类资产里的社会财富，简单算算肯定超过200多万亿。这200多万亿怎么盘活？居民财富除了房地产（约占社会财富250万亿左右大数），另外一半也是200多万亿大数。这块资产流动性更高，应该积极布局到A股和港股，通过资本市场发挥更高效率、更好资源配置效率，进而形成社会财富的财富效应。让企业家不再躺平，特别是民营企业家不再总考虑全球配置、资金外流，而是更积极投身中国新质生产力大潮。“寒王”被质疑太贵？上涨是时代造就的，要用发展的眼光看问题比如很多人质疑国产算力所谓的“寒王们”太贵、有泡沫。我们要以发展眼光看问题。它的标杆作用好比改革开放初期的“傻子瓜子”，或者一线城市房价持续飙升对整个房地产的拉动作用。当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。上涨是时代造就的，而不是用静态的老式EPS、短期PE来算的。应该从社会发展角度看，这次中国的北交所、科创板、主板中的科技型公司，特别是与AI浪潮对应的好公司，正在经历戴维斯双击，业绩和估值都向上走。但我并不是建议大家无脑追高，只是说这个现象有时代意义。就像当年00年代上海房子，老觉得贵，老说租金回报率与收入不匹配。现在收入匹配了，租金回报率高了，大家反而不买了。这其实是时代浪潮，要用发展眼光看问题。资本市场的造富效应、财富效应吸引眼球，让企业家愿意进行风险投资、做天使投资人，投入半导体、机器人、创新药、低空经济、AI等科技领域，形成星星之火可以燎原，资本市场帮助社会财富优化资源配置。老百姓通过参与资本市场（比如今年买基金基本都跑赢指数），财富改善后，风险偏好提升，边际消费倾向也提升。这就是我看超级长牛的原因，这个超级长牛叫做时势造英雄。现在中国式现代化迈向本世纪中叶，未来二十多年发展就是高质量发展，通过资本市场优化资源配置，盘活政府、居民、企业资产负债表。用资产端扩张化解债务忧虑，资产扩张了，资产负债率自然就下来了，对负债的恐慌才会彻底有效下降。这是我讲的第一点——时代红利。大家千万不要还想疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛第二点，这次和以前最大不同是国家力量、有形之手在引领。我们用数据来看，2023年10月底召开中央金融工作会议，明确提出要坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路，本质上不同于西方金融模式。西方金融模式是市场化、纯粹绝对的市场化，说白了就是利益导向。美国这么多年来，低效率的造船、钢铁、纺织服装等都转移到其他国家去了。美国想要制造业回流非常难，最多回流一些高科技领域的先进制造业，但低效率、不赚钱的制造业回不去。这就是美国资本市场的特征，就是利益导向。中国式发展模式不同。特别是2022年二十大后，我们更强调党的领导、党领导一切、党建引领。这个大背景下，中国特色金融发展之路就是政治性、人民性、功能性，就是有形之手在引领。对资本市场要求是协调、统筹高效市场和有为政府的关系，吸取2014-2015年疯牛教训——杠杆牛最终一地鸡毛，国家没有通过资本市场对实体经济形成正反馈，反而要拿出大量资源救市，这是沉痛教训。所以大家千万不要还想疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛。这个长牛走法像1998年到2020年的房地产：走快了、热度高了，政策调控就压一压；冷了，政策就托一托，如此震荡前行。我把这次有形之手主导下的中国股市（A股和港股）长牛形象比喻为“小白兔式长牛”，借鉴龟兔赛跑中乌龟和小白兔的运行方式。美国的长牛是乌龟式慢牛，因为其市场化、唯利是图，有强大丰富的做空机制、立体交易机制，涨快了就有人做空赚钱。中国做空机制相对不健全，整体还要呵护中小投资者利益。中国特色背景下，要因地制宜，不要盲目抄别人，不然就变成“淮南为橘淮北为枳”的笑话。适合国情的发展模式才是真正有效的。所以我们说现在中国大背景强调中国特色金融发展之路，与其他方面党引领中国式现代化一脉相承。这种情况下理解中国这轮长牛，可以借鉴当年房地产繁荣二十多年的长牛。但这个长牛不是乌龟式慢牛，而是“小白兔式长牛”：小白兔在龟兔赛跑中猛冲、快速跑，然后睡一觉调整，睡醒精神抖擞再冲，再睡再冲。我们的资本市场由于缺乏市场化的丰富做空机制，一旦情绪来了，一哄而上，羊群效应非常强。再加上现在有高频量化主体，影响力越来越大，所以走得很快。走得快没问题，但会有调控，不外乎“水多了加面，面多了加水”。现在良性循环，长线资金入市，“储蓄搬家”已经方兴未艾（刚开始），现在还比较健康。整体行情从六月份以来有点加速。加速不要紧，加速后未来IPO节奏放开、再融资节奏放开一定会发生，这是规则演绎。因为这轮长牛不是为了少数投机分子、有钱资本家割国家韭菜，而是通过长牛盘活社会财富，帮助改善地方政府、企业、居民的资产负债表。通过这轮行情，地方政府相关资产上市变现。2020年前地方政府更多是土地财政、搞铁公基，但2020年后合肥模式蔚然成风，各地学合肥模式，包括西安、长沙、珠三角、长三角。合肥模式就是股权财政，通过积极介入资本市场、资本运作，给本地实体经济赋能，形成良性循环。各地纷纷设立政府母基金作为种子基金，吸引绿色经济、低空经济、AI科技、机器人等创新领域。如果这些新生产力资产迟迟不能变现，就是没有估值的资产，甚至可能不断打折，不利于资产负债表改善。反过来说，如果通过并购重组（下一步中国资本市场并购重组重新蓬勃发展），通过快鱼吃慢鱼、大鱼吃小鱼，龙头公司用股票换场外资产、未上市公司股权，就形成良性循环。上市公司获得增量增长动能，净资产提升，估值和盈利双驱动。对地方政府而言，资产原来成本价甚至低于成本价（如果高位买可能被向下重估），资产负债表恶化。但现在被上市公司收购，地方政府掌握的股权、资产一下子翻好多倍，快速改善资产负债表。对企业也是如此，特别是有些民营企业资产负债率高，可能想退出但没有渠道。如果同行业龙头公司通过股票换股权（加上一点现金，现金可能通过再融资），收购场外资产，就快速形成行业内竞争格局优化、优胜劣汰。这些都让我们看到资本市场在新时代、政府有形之手引领下，高效推动中国高质量发展。2023年之前和现在是两个股市所以我们来说，2023年之前的中国股市和2023年之后的中国股市是两个股市。2023年之前我们动辄讲学习西方模式，动辄讲中国股市是新兴加转轨市场，觉得自己不成熟，要向西方成熟市场学习。但2023年发生质的变化。2023年中央金融工作会议讲得很清楚，我们本质上不同于西方金融模式，我们是以义取利，而不是唯利是图。以义取利就是看民族大义、国家大义，看国家长期角度如何更好提升全民福利。所以现在中国资本市场有伟大的历史使命感，通过自身活跃与实体经济形成正反馈，与科技创新形成正反馈，大家赚钱，国家发展，中国式现代化获得内驱力。这是我讲的第二点——有形之手引领这次中国式长牛。这次中国式“小白兔长牛”是伴随阶段性快涨和调整、拾级而上的长牛。这就是中国国情，因为中国资本市场缺乏（市场化的丰富强大的做空机制）。而且我们也不想用西方纯粹市场化模式搞那么多做空机制。我们的“做空机制”就是：既然那么亢奋、估值那么高，好，多一点为社会主义服务、为实体经济服务，进行并购重组、资产注入、再融资和IPO。这是中国特色的做空机制，抑制行情过度亢奋、过度投机，让行情持续为经济发展服务。短期的羊群效应不用羡慕嫉妒恨。很多人前面涨得快就焦急得不得了，觉得再不进去牛市就结束了。我说牛市远没有结束，可能是20年的牛市，有什么好担心？要更多关注资产本身，而不是涨一点怕踏空、跌一点怕套牢。其实是没有从本质理解这轮长牛。这是讲的大趋势：一是时代红利，第二是有形之手在主导和引领。这个逻辑同时适用于A股和港股，是个大逻辑。因为2019年、2020年、2021年、2022年、2023年一直经过震荡整理。从2024年开始，香港也在随着2023年reopen（疫情阴影解除），加速融入祖国发展大局。香港长牛特色之一：拥抱祖国、国家赋能第二个层面我们再分享一下香港本身的逻辑。刚才讲的是适合A股和港股两者共同的超长牛市逻辑。我们再想一想香港本身的特点和特色，主要分以下几个方面。香港这轮行情的特色在哪儿呢？就是拥抱祖国、拥抱祖国发展大局。从2023年年底开始，香港整个政治经济面貌可以用四个字概括：由治及兴——从治理整治到振兴发展，国家开始积极赋能。一个标志性的转折信号是2023年中央金融工作会议明确提出要“巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位”。我们看到2023年曾有一股歪风造谣说香港已经是“国际金融中心遗址”，已经不是国际金融中心了。中央金融工作会议明确表态国家赋能，明确提出巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，这是香港特色的第一点：拥抱祖国，国家赋能。香港长牛特色之二：财富从避险资产流入港股第二点是从资金面角度来说，港股和A股一样都将受益于中国社会财富（特别是居民财富）从避险资产向股票、向权益资产再配置的大潮。这个大潮方兴未艾——今年7月份居民储蓄当月减少了1.1万亿，而在此之前二季度居民储蓄存款净增加了5万亿人民币。整个社会财富从避险资产向股市再配置的浪潮刚刚开始，而且是个良性循环。只要不是疯牛，只要是一个拾级而上的行情，配置节奏也会比较平缓。我们需要关注的一个指标是：2022年到2023年上半年，我国居民定期存款出现一个小高潮。那时三年期定存利率基本可以达到3%左右，而现在三年期定存利率可能只有1.7%左右。十年期国债收益率是多少呢？也是1.7%左右。余额宝等货币基金的七天年化收益率可能在1%左右。保险寿险的预定利率现在也都降到了2%左右。在这样的时代，权益资产的性价比其实比避险资产更好。所以这种情况下，港股和A股都受益于中国社会财富的再配置。我们不要妄自菲薄。我们已是世界第二大经济体，不用总关注外资很多投资者老是问我外资什么时候来，好像外资不来A股港股就没有行情一样。这种心态还停留在小国寡民的思维模式中，根本没有意识到我们已经是世界第二大经济体，我们的社会财富在全球都是一个惊人的量级。改革开放40年的积累，我们不像拉美，也不像东南亚，我们没有经历过金融危机，没有被西方资本强取豪夺，我们的财富积累下来了，只是现在都堆积在避险资产里。下一步，在时代红利和国家政策引领下，在有形之手的推动下，长线资金入市的堵点已经打通了。后续除了长线资金、国家队、汇金、保险社保之外，我们认为“老鼠拉木锨——大头在后头”：整个社会财富、居民储蓄搬家，以及社会财富从银行理财、货币基金、固收类资产、甚至保险分红型资产，向权益资产再配置。我认为这是一个大趋势，是时代大趋势。这个状态就像00年代大家去买房子一样，刚开始还怀疑行不行，涨多了又害怕。你看04、05年就有一堆人喊上海房价有泡沫、要崩盘，结果从04、05年到2020年，上海房价平均从4100元/平涨到市区10万/平以上。所以风物长宜放眼量，要有大的历史视角来看问题。所以我们讲，第二点就是港股和A股都有希望，而且我认为这是必然的——必将受益于中国社会财富的再配置。所谓“栽下梧桐树，引得凤凰来”。港股长牛特色之三：生态环境加速良性循环第三个方面，港股的生态环境在加速良性循环，这跟2021年到2024年年初是不一样的。过去几年，由于新旧动能切换，比如香港地产链、防止资本无序扩张对房地产相关产业链的压制，以及教培等行业调控，在2024年年初之前，整个香港的基本面和上市公司基本面毫无生气，大家比较悲观，资金都拥挤在纯粹的避险型央企红利资产上，把它当做债券类的红利资产，比如三桶油、四大行、三大运营商等。但有活力、有成长性的资产，大家非常悲观。那时海外压制中国资产，海外投资者有三大预期，一直压制着中国资产特别是港股，导致2023年8月份港股卖空占比达到离谱的35%左右，做空港股成为全球最拥挤的两大交易策略之一。当时的“三座大山”是：第一，觉得中国经济受房地产拖累会出现硬着陆，即“中国经济危机论”，现已被证伪；第二，觉得中国科技落后，美国在先进半导体和AI上卡我们脖子；第三，“民企退场论”，因为当时新旧动能切换对民企地产、互联网等有影响。所以当时外资不断撤离，觉得中国资产只有交易价值，没有投资价值，甚至现在仍有少数海外投资者没转变过来。但我们要讲的是，从2023年中央金融工作会议之后，特别是去年9月24日和9月26日以来，中国产业发展和经济发展格局已经非常明确，只是很多人不能理解。我们要用政治经济学框架，而不是纯粹西方金融思维来看这个问题。现在看，从去年9月政治局会议鼓励民营企业发展，到今年2月17日民营企业座谈会，再到5月份《民营经济促进法》等，一系列举措都表明“民企退场论”被推翻、被证伪。不仅如此，北交所、科创板甚至港股的新消费、创新药、机器人、半导体等，大多都是民营资本、民营企业在崛起和快速发展。所谓“中国科技落后论”也被丢到太平洋，因为正如开头所讲，无论是DeepSeek、AI、机器人、军工科技还是创新药，我们在科技层面全面突破，在全球呈现追赶甚至领先的趋势。所谓“中国经济硬着陆论”或“中国日本模式论”也在不断被推翻、被证伪。因为我刚才讲了中国中央政府资产负债表非常干净，足以托底不出现大的系统性风险。同时，中国是全球最大的内需市场——从商品消费角度，我们已是全球最大市场。美国之所以是全球最大市场，是因为它的服务消费比我们大得多。但纯粹从商品消费看，中国已是世界最大内需市场，所以我们跟当年的日本不一样。新动能已开始蓬勃发展，中国经济开始企稳，开始缓慢走向高质量发展和改善的过程。我说中国经济格局绝对不是90年代、00年代的日本。我们更像什么？我认为中国更可比的是80年代中后期到90年代上半期互联网浪潮兴起前的美国。当时美国经济内需也在低位徘徊，但像山姆店、Costco等新兴商业模式开始崛起，当时著名基金经理彼得·林奇就是看老婆孩子买什么就找什么股票。中国现在无论是科技、新消费、创新药，还是很多结构性亮点，可说是此起彼伏。所以不用太在意宏观，宏观稳住就好——既不会崩也不会热，是温和走向高质量发展。这种情况下，港股生态环境持续良性循环，特别是优质民营资本、科技、新消费、创新药企业纷纷到香港上市，给市场带来生机和引领。境内外增量资金持续流入香港市场，包括对中国理解正确的先知先觉主动管理型外资，从今年上半年开始布局，如亚太区的韩国、中国台湾、东南亚新加坡等。假以时日，随着中国长牛赚钱效应持续，中东、欧洲的钱甚至华尔街都会回来，美国对冲基金也会来赚钱。这就是生态环境的良性循环。港股长牛特色之四：外资主导离岸市场化转向泛中资主导的在岸市场化第四点，这轮港股长牛的一个重要特色是底层投资逻辑从外资主导的离岸市场化，转向中国方、中资及中国朋友圈（认同中国发展理念的泛中资）主导的在岸市场化。离岸市场和在岸市场有什么区别？离岸市场通常是外围的、非核心布局的，所以你看较长时间里，无论是中国内地投资者还是外资，都像过江龙一样——A股涨了看港股是洼地就过去，赚不到钱又回来，没把港股当主战场；外资也是美股涨多了看港股是洼地就冲一波，涨多了就减仓甚至做空，像是扶贫，是离岸市场。在岸市场不一样。在岸市场对优质公司有长期判断和拥抱，你看美股最典型——在岸市场如债券市场，本土资金是定海神针和支柱，好资产跌多了就有资金立足中长期布局，不像离岸市场越跌做空力量越凶、跌无止境。我们认为这次港股市场投资逻辑的转变，就是从离岸市场转向在岸市场。可以看到投资风格也发生变化：原来是以深度价值（Deep Value）围绕确定性给溢价，所以红利型深度价值资产弹起来赚钱机会也大；现在在岸市场投资风格更加多元化。除了价值股（作为盾牌支撑中枢上移，特别是红利资产、传统行业龙头和核心资产持续价值重估）之外，以科技、新消费、创新药为代表的成长性资产会给予成长溢价——高增长给高估值。这就是在岸市场的魅力：国产算力在A股可以出现几百倍估值，在美股你看科技、创新甚至明显很烂的稀土股票也是市梦率估值。并不是成熟市场估值就一定低，美股这几年其实给成长股估值溢价。所以在岸市场的特征是风格更加多元化、攻守兼备：有价值股机会，也有成长股机会，而成长股会基于成长性给溢价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"HSCEI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}