My take: This is a multiple reset, not a broken brand. NA comps slowed, but DTC muscle + men’s + international keep the engine alive.
What matters: inventory discipline, new product cycles, and whether China/Intl offsets softer North America. Gross margin is the tell.
Framework: If growth normalizes to mid-teens with clean inventory, low-20s EBITDA multiples re-rate. If comps stay soft, it’s a value trap.
Trade plan: Starter at capitulation near multi-year support; add only on improving inventory turns and traffic.
Risk: fashion miss, markdowns, copycat pressure.
LULU isn’t dead—it’s de-rated. I buy brands when the multiple resets and the product still walks off shelves.
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