My take: Tesla breaks out only if the software flywheel outruns auto cyclicality. The three unlocks:
FSD take-rate + subscription ARPU inflects—software gross margin is the oxygen.
Energy (Megapack) scale drives revenue quality and smooths auto volatility.
Credible robotaxi/regulatory path—even a line-of-sight narrative moves multiples.
What I’m watching: auto margin ex-credits, deferred revenue from software, energy backlog, and capex per incremental kWh.
Trade plan: Chase strength only on a high-volume reclaim of major moving averages with software metrics improving; otherwise, rent the range.
Risk: price cuts outpacing cost deflation, autonomy stalls, geopolitical tariffs.
TSLA doesn’t moon on metal; it moons when software and energy out-earn the cars.
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