My take: The story is commercial AIP monetization vs. government durability. If you believe in 25%+ CAGR and 30%+ op margins at scale, $15s are where you get paid to wait.
What I’m watching: commercial mix rising, RPO growth, SBC dilution trend, and cash conversion.
Trade plan: Scale in near long-term moving averages, add on margin proof, trim into 20s if it runs ahead of fundamentals.
Risk: contract timing lumpiness, hype outrunning deployments, dilution re-accelerating.
PLTR pays you when AIP becomes invoices—not demos.
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