IS IT TOO LATE TO BUY BABA?
PRICE TARGET: $192
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +24% ✅
"Alibaba remains an attractive opportunity considering the 10% growth of China commerce and the 25%+ growth of Cloud"
ASSUMPTIONS:
LTM Revenue: $138.995B
(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.𝟤𝟢)
5Y Revenue CAGR: 9%
2030 Profit Margin: 17%
2030 PE Ratio: 18
Shares outstanding: 2.393B
Shares reduction: 2%/year
VALUATION:
Q2 2030 $BABA SHARE PRICE =
138.995 * (1.09)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /
[2.393 * (0.98)^5] = $303
You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%
ACTUAL PRICE: $155
FAIR VALUE: $172
PRICE TARGET (1Y): $192
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 24%
EXPECTED RETURNS: 14.3%/year
DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.7%
Do you own BABA shares?
A stock chart for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (BABA) on the NYSE. The chart shows a price of 158.04 USD with a year-to-date increase of 73.09 (86.04%). A green line tracks the stock price from May 2025 to September 2025, peaking near 200. Text overlays include the stock ticker BABA, price, and percentage changes.
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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
