To The Moon

$Visa(V)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth quarter (ending September 30, 2025) earnings around Tuesday, October 28, 2025, after market close.

Analyst Consensus Estimates

Current consensus forecasts indicate continued steady growth, driven by resilient consumer spending and the strength of its cross-border business.

Summary of Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings

Visa delivered a strong fiscal third quarter for 2025 (period ended June 30, 2025), surpassing analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines, driven by continued growth in key business drivers:

Revenue Growth: Net revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to $10.2 billion, beating consensus estimates.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS was $2.98, representing a strong 23% increase year-over-year and exceeding analyst forecasts.

Key Business Drivers (in constant dollars):

Total Payments Volume: Grew 8% year-over-year, reflecting resilient consumer spending globally.

Total Cross-Border Volume: Increased 12% year-over-year (or 11% excluding intra-Europe), benefiting from steady international travel and e-commerce growth.

Processed Transactions: Rose 10% year-over-year, demonstrating strong network utilization.

Strategic Growth Segments: Value-added services revenue showed accelerated growth, and the money-movement platform Visa Direct saw transactions surge by 25% year-over-year.

The company's results indicated strong operational execution and the robust nature of the global payments ecosystem, despite some lingering economic uncertainties.

Lesson Learned from Guidance

The key takeaway from Visa's fiscal Q3 2025 guidance was the reaffirmation of its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook, despite the robust quarterly beat.

Guidance Reaffirmed: Management maintained its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook for adjusted net revenue growth in the low-double digits and non-GAAP EPS growth in the low-teens.

Market Reaction: The decision to not raise the full-year guidance, even after a significant beat in Q3, reportedly led to some market disappointment initially.

The Lesson Learned:

The primary lesson from the guidance commentary is that despite exceptional quarterly performance, investors must scrutinize the sustainability and composition of growth against the backdrop of macroeconomic moderation and high expectations.

High Expectations and the Path Forward: The market has extremely high expectations for Visa's consistent growth. The failure to raise full-year guidance, despite a strong quarter, signals that management's internal forecast for the rest of the year (Fiscal Q4) may be factoring in a degree of moderation in growth rates or a commitment to increased strategic investments.

Focus on Structural Levers Over Macro Tailwinds: While the strong cross-border volumes continue to benefit from travel recovery, the future narrative is increasingly focused on structural growth levers like Value-Added Services (e.g., fraud, consulting, data products) and new flows (e.g., B2B, Visa Direct) rather than just broad consumer spending. Reaffirming the long-term outlook emphasizes the importance of these diversified growth engines for sustainable value, even if the macro environment slows.

The "Beat and Raise" Mentality is Not Guaranteed: Investors should understand that a quarterly "beat" does not automatically translate into a "raise" of the full-year outlook, especially for mature, high-quality businesses that tend to guide conservatively. This is a reminder to ground expectations in the explicit guidance provided by management rather than assuming an upward revision.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Visa's revenue is segmented, and investors will look beyond the top and bottom lines to assess the underlying health of the global payment ecosystem.

Cross-Border Volume Growth (International Transaction Revenue)

Why it matters: This is Visa's highest-margin revenue stream. A strong recovery in international travel and e-commerce continues to be a major tailwind.

What to watch for:

• International Transaction Revenue: Analysts project a significant increase, possibly around +11.3% YoY.

• Cross-Border Volume (excluding intra-Europe): Any deceleration in the growth rate here, or continued strength, will be a key driver for the stock reaction.

Payments Volume (Total & Regional)

Why it matters: This is the total dollar value of transactions processed over the Visa network. It indicates overall consumer spending health.

What to watch for:

• Total Payments Volume: Consensus is around $3.70 Trillion, suggesting an approximate +8.6% YoY increase.

• U.S. Payments Volume: A slowdown in the U.S. (Visa's largest market) due to macroeconomic pressure or softening consumer spending could be a negative flag.

• Growth in CEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and Europe: These regions have been sources of robust growth and should be scrutinized for continued momentum.

Value-Added Services (VAS)

• Why it matters: Visa is shifting to generate more revenue from services like fraud detection, consulting, and data processing, which are critical for future growth diversification and margin expansion.

• What to watch for: Look for management commentary on the growth rate and adoption of VAS, particularly in areas like B2B payments and tokenization. Data processing revenue is projected to grow around +13.5% YoY.

Client Incentives

• Why it matters: This is a contra-revenue item (a reduction in net revenue). It represents payments made to financial institutions to encourage them to issue Visa cards. If this percentage of gross revenue grows too quickly, it can pressure net revenue and margins.

• What to watch for: The magnitude and trend of client incentives. Slowing growth in incentives was a positive factor in the recent prior-year Q4.

Visa (V) Price Target

Based on 25 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Visa in the last 3 months. The average price target is $399.05 with a high forecast of $450.00 and a low forecast of $315.00. The average price target represents a 15.35% change from the last price of $345.96.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

The opportunity for a significant short-term move often hinges on two factors: a surprise relative to expectations and the forward guidance for the next quarter/fiscal year.

Scenario 1: Strong Beat on EPS and Revenue + Bullish Guidance (Upside)

Opportunity: The stock is likely to see a strong upward move. Given Visa's premium valuation (high P/E ratio), the market demands high growth. A substantial beat, particularly in the high-margin cross-border business, coupled with raising full-year guidance, would be a major bullish catalyst.

Likely Stock Reaction: +3% to +5% or more

Scenario 2: Meet Expectations + In-Line Guidance (Neutral to Negative)

• Opportunity: As a high-quality, high-valuation stock, simply meeting expectations can sometimes disappoint investors who have priced in an earnings beat.

• Likely Stock Reaction: -1% to -3% The price may drift lower as focus shifts to growth risks (e.g., U.S. consumer spending moderation, regulatory pressure).

• Scenario 3: Miss on Key Metrics and/or Weak Guidance (Downside)

• Opportunity: Any unexpected weakness, especially in cross-border volume or a significant deceleration in U.S. payments volume, would be a concern. A lowered full-year outlook would be a major negative catalyst.

• Likely Stock Reaction: -4% to -6% or more

Historical Context for Short-Term Trading:

Historically, Visa's stock has shown mixed reactions to earnings reports over the past five years, with an even split of positive and negative one-day post-earnings returns approx 50% each way). The median positive return has been around +2.6%, and the median negative return around -1.3%. The stock is widely viewed as a "Hold" or "Buy" by most analysts, suggesting that positive news is more likely to be rewarded than negative news is punished in the long run, but a short-term sell-off on a minor miss is certainly possible due to its high valuation.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing Visa trading range-bound though the market is looking for its continued growth in electronic payments, but the stock price are showing mixed sentiment, though RSI momentum is positive and we can see that the bulls are trying to make continued upside movement, but we can see that investors might still be waiting for positive news to push for a rally.

I think we can look forward for a positive guidance for 2026, and the current price might be potential good entry if Visa could make a positive earnings amid its growth in electronic payments.

Summary

Visa (V) is expected to report solid fiscal Q4 2025 earnings, driven by continued growth in electronic payments.

Analyst Consensus:

Revenue: Expected to be approximately $10.6 billion, representing around 10% year-over-year growth.

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Projected to be around $2.96 per share, an increase of roughly 9-10% year-over-year.

Key Growth Drivers:

Payment Volumes: Expected to remain strong, supported by resilient consumer spending.

Cross-Border Payments: Anticipated to be a key strength due to ongoing travel recovery and international e-commerce.

Value-Added Services (VAS): Solutions like AI-driven fraud detection, real-time analytics, and digital checkouts are seen as significant contributors to the growth trajectory.

Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook, with expectations of a strong quarter positioning the company well for fiscal 2026. The actual results, particularly the outlook for cross-border and volume trends, will be key to the stock's reaction.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Visa could be a good bet for financial stocks to take advantage of its continued growth in electronic payments.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.