To The Moon

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, after the market closes.

Consensus Estimates

Market expectations suggest a slight increase in revenue and a significant move toward profitability compared to the year-ago quarter.

Note: Analysts are divided, with other forecasts for EPS being a loss of ($0.11) per share. The stock has a recent history of beating consensus earnings estimates.

Key Factors and Challenges

• Advertising Platform Issues: Snap has been dealing with residual impacts from an ad platform issue in the prior quarter that led to discounted ad campaigns and depressed returns for advertisers. Investors will watch for clear signs of stabilization and recovery in their advertising auction dynamics.

• Monetization Pressure: The rapid rollout of ad formats like Sponsored Snaps may be expanding inventory faster than advertiser demand, putting pressure on ad pricing (effective Cost Per Thousand Impressions or eCPM), which fell significantly in the prior quarter.

• North America User Trends: User engagement in the highly monetizable North America region has been soft. A continued shift in content toward "broader content sharing" over friend-based stories may be weighing on engagement here.

Snap (SNAP) Q2 2025 Reported Results (Reported August 5, 2025)

The Q2 report showed continued user growth, strong free cash flow, and momentum in non-ad revenue, but revenue growth was modest and a decline in Adjusted EBITDA highlighted ad platform challenges.

Critical Regional and Monetization Details from Q2:

North America User Softness: While global DAU grew, the highly monetizable North America DAU growth was soft (reported as a 2% increase or even a decline in some summaries). This is a primary concern, as North America brings in the vast majority of revenue per user.

Ad Platform Issues & eCPM: Management directly addressed the ad platform issue (related to re-platforming and AI integration) which caused campaigns to clear at discounted prices. This resulted in the eCPM (ad pricing) being under significant pressure.

Snapchat+ Success: Other Revenue (driven mostly by Snapchat+ subscriptions) grew strongly by +64% YoY, providing a successful diversification and approaching 16 million subscribers.

Context for Q3 2025 Earnings Focus

The Q2 results set the stage for a critical Q3 report:

In short, the Q3 report needs to demonstrate that the damage from the Q2 ad platform issues has been contained, and that North America monetization is on a path to recovery for the stock to see a sustainable post-earnings bounce.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

The headline EPS and Revenue figures are important, but for a social media company like Snap, the underlying operational metrics are crucial, especially for short-term stock movement.

Snap Inc (SNAP) Price Target

Based on 35 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Snap in the last 3 months. The average price target is $9.27 with a high forecast of $16.00 and a low forecast of $6.50. The average price target represents a 18.49% change from the last price of $7.82.

Opportunity for Trading Short-Term Post-Earnings

Trading around an earnings announcement is inherently high-risk, especially for a volatile stock like SNAP. Any short-term strategy should consider the following:

High Volatility is Expected: SNAP's stock has historically experienced significant price swings after earnings reports, both positive and negative. The options market often prices in a large move (the implied move is an important data point for options traders).

Focus on Guidance: The stock's reaction often hinges more on Q4 2025 guidance and commentary on the advertising environment than on the Q3 headline numbers alone. Better-than-expected guidance could lead to a significant spike, while cautious guidance, even with a Q3 beat, could lead to a decline.

Key Metric Surprises:

• Positive Catalyst: A significant beat in North America ARPU or Global DAU growth, paired with strong Q4 guidance, could trigger a short-covering rally (given the stock's high short interest).

• Negative Catalyst: A miss on Global DAU or cautious Q4 guidance due to soft ad demand or persistent ad platform issues could lead to a sharp sell-off.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing SNAP trading sideways and consolidation in a pretty long period, though the RSI momentum still show positive, but their ad platform issues could cause another sharp sell-off, if SNAP could show that they have managed to navigate away from this persistent ad platform issues.

We might see a sharp surge up with investors coming back to this stock as the current share price looks attractive.

Summary

Snap is facing a critical Q3 2025 report (scheduled for November 5, 2025) as it works to recover from ad platform issues that pressured revenue growth in the prior quarter.

Consensus Estimates anticipate revenue near $1.49 billion (slight growth) and a potential move toward profitability (consensus EPS loss near or a gain of , depending on the source).

Key Metrics to Watch:

North America Monetization: The health of the ad platform is measured by Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and commentary on ad pricing (eCPM) in the highly lucrative North America region. Q2 saw this under significant pressure.

User Growth (DAU): Global Daily Active Users (DAU) are expected to grow modestly to about 476 million, primarily driven by the Rest of World region, offsetting softer trends in North America.

Q4 2025 Guidance: The outlook for the holiday quarter (Q4) is the most important factor. Strong guidance would signal the ad platform fixes are working and could drive a short-term rally.

Trading post-earnings will be high-volatility, largely dictated by management's commentary on the ad platform fix and the strength of the Q4 forecast.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think SNAP would be able to navigate away from its persistent ad platform issues.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.