$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Palantir這份財報其實很強，營收11.8億美元，同比飆63%，利潤也穩步提升，還連續21個季度超預期，這種成績放在任何一家公司都值得鼓掌。但問題在於：市場早就預期它“會很強”，現在的估值已經透支了太多未來增長。
回調的核心原因不是業績不好，而是漲得太多、太快。AI概念帶來的估值溢價正在被現實盈利能力重新定價。Palantir現在的市銷率、自由現金流倍數都遠超同行，而AIP商業化的進展還沒到能支撐這麼高估值的程度。換句話說，它還沒兌現“成長故事”的下半場。
短期來看，這輪調整是健康的。股價回到合理區間，會把投機資金洗出去，也爲真正的中長期投資者騰出空間。如果回調過程中基本面繼續穩定、訂單延續增長，反而可能形成新的支撐區。
泡沫不會“破裂”，但會“降溫”。AI主題的熱度不至於消失，只是從炒題材轉向看兌現。等市場從情緒迴歸到數據，Palantir的估值纔會重新找到平衡點。
這次不是崩盤，而是高估值向現實的回調。價格在修正，故事沒結束。
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