To The Moon

2025, started with confidence or cushion from last year’s gains

Even though year's first 2 months were silent, exprcted a correction not only me but everyone but the problem is never did a stress tests by how much percentage fall . Markets went down 20% in roughly 30 to 40 sessions almost all the gains of 2024 were disappeared but the conviction of asset selection and asset allocation helped me

When something drops in value I add more 

But real honest question is how to follow the principle which we set , I breached the boundary by buying the dip so quick like 20 points fall in SPY , but the index corrected almost 120 points only tool is cash u add more Since it is a index you know will be ok after months or years. If you set a principle

I will add more at so and so price never add in between that's what I learnt no matter how good the stock it will be attractive at one point 

The rule of thumb is you buy at 20% fall and set a 40% target quite achievable 

Resoect stock rotation if something doesn't move not bad but takes time 

Google they ran last and End up first 

Markets still didn't respect Microsoft Amazon meta the mulplies were high markets hesitate 

Always keep contacts with bankers you never know they will be the one will help in case of troubles 

At end of the day this business will run if the asset we choose

1). Not concentrated in one 

2). No penny or stocks with 60 multiple 

3). Not investing in stories with 100 multiples 

what I prefer 

1). Go with index as much as you can 

2). From that select names with good conviction within index 

3). You can play 10% here and there for stocks whic are beaten down heavily 

But the game rule is be within circle 

but March and April tested everything — discipline,seriousness, and belief in my own thesis.

Yet, the clarity of framework and conviction in the approach paid off. 

Out of the entire universe of stocks lists, shortlisted Candidates were $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  , Google, MSFT, Amazon basically anything which is roughly 30X or less 

Averaging right, not blindly — that made all the difference.

@Jagannathan J 

What are the mistakes ?

Adding more when there is a five percent fall - what I learnt now if my target allocation is 10000 on a stock I will add only 1/3 or now I am too cautious I will add 1/10 and I will double down till 20% drop this a rough way I have in mind 

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What Worked

• MAG 7 low-PE opportunities delivered when the market mispriced fear.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  

• Index plays provided stability and compounding.

• Leveraging the portfolio in April accelerated the recovery when others were panicking.

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What I Learnt (Hard Truths)

• High PE = High Fragility.

Even giants fall — Novo Nordisk reminded me of that.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$  

• No stock is too big to fail.

Even stocks sitting in the top 5 portfolios of super-investors can drop 60% — UnitedHealth proved it.

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$  

Stock-picking mastery takes time.

A 6-month thesis doesn’t always play out. Some ideas need a year or more to reveal themselves.

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Dry Powder

- Significance of having cash and seeing the prices fall wait and execute

- Markets perception changes very quickly rinheard from an analyst if we r in recession  the PE multiples for index should be 14 not 24 that is 50% roughly , give that markets fall 20% other 20% fall will result in devastation. Honestly what markets witnessed in April were not fed intervention but BlackRock ceo bill ackman tweet I believe for the tariffs to lift 

Opportunities Ahead

• Deep value pockets still exist.

• Multiples normalize; markets overreact both ways.

• As long as the business quality, cash flows, and valuation make sense — opportunities remain.

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Challenges to Accept

• Never average in a hurry.

Price is not the thesis — business and valuation are.

• Watch the multiples carefully.

In this market, stocks move from 15× PE to 30× PE in days.

Chasing those moves destroys returns.

• Mastering the Sell is the hardest skill.

Buying is easy.

Holding is hard.

Selling at the right time is an art.

And yes…

Selling is VERY tough. Extremely tough.

But that’s what separates good investors from great ones.

At last happy to close year with 40 to 50 percent gains