BABA-W (09988) — “Value + execution” checklist
$ $BABA-W(09988)$ still screens like a classic “cheap mega-cap,” but the real question is whether management can convert that into durable per-share gains. What I’m watching:
(1) Core commerce take rate and user retention—especially whether monetization improves without sacrificing GMV.
(2) Cloud: not just revenue growth, but margin trend and AI-related demand translating into higher-quality bookings. (3) Capital returns: buyback pace vs. free cash flow after investments.
(4) Competitive intensity in China e-commerce—any sign of rational pricing or, conversely, renewed subsidy wars.
Risk side: China macro sensitivity, regulatory headline risk, and a scenario where “cheap” stays cheap if growth doesn’t re-accelerate. My base case is that the stock works best when you get both earnings stability and clear evidence buybacks are shrinking the share count meaningfully.
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