Margin story first, then volume
For $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ , I care less about unit shipments in isolation and more about whether the mix keeps improving.
Key watch items: (1) Smartphone ASP and gross margin—can premium models hold share without heavy promotions? (2) IoT + lifestyle: is it growing faster than phones and lifting blended margin? (3) Overseas demand: FX and channel inventory can distort “headline” growth; I’d rather see clean sell-through. (4) If you’re following the EV angle, focus on production ramp discipline and cash burn—new categories can excite the market, but they also punish mistakes fast.
Bull case: steady margin expansion + ecosystem stickiness. Bear case: volumes recover but margins compress, turning it into a low-quality rebound.
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