A lot of comparisons are starting to be made between $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ and space X. But are they really comparable?
Let's begin with rockets. Rklb has electron, small lift, dedicated, and precision insertion. Space X has nothing like this. But space x does have starship. while it's still in development, rklb has nothing like it. Starship Does present a major concern though regarding the IPO. Investors want returns. Starship, is a whale with an absolutely insane cash appetite. Going to the moon and mars seem to lack a business case unless government steps in hugely. so while the ipo might rocket initially, I will be assessing the long term impact of the starship strategy once i get some concrete numbers.
they both have medium lift rockets, Falcon 9 and neutron. Space X is way way way ahead here with impressive cadence in unmanned and manned flight success. neutron has yet to launch. By all accounts I see room for both in the market due to unprecedented demand for satellite launch going forward.
Space x has the starlink constellation, which seems to be a cash cow, but other companies like $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ could seriously impact them going forward. Rocket lab has no constellations, beyond thinking about it to date.
The real kicker is rklbs space systems businesses. They are industry leaders in providing other sat companies with essential components like solar panels, reaction wheels, radio and optical systems and lots more. Space X doesn't appear to do this although it appears they do manufacture their starlink satellites in house.
Rocket lab builds a range of satellites from scratch for a lot of different companies. Latest example is the SDA award of over $800 million for 18 satellites.
Rocket lab also has its own space software businesses, and contracts these services out to others. A good example recently was the successful moon landing of the $Intuit(INTU)$ Spacecraft. This was achieved with rocket lab software.
Space X I assume will have its own software division but there is no intel that I can find that provides me with examples of it being monetized.
Finally there is culture. Space X on the surface has unlimited capital. So it can afford to blow stuff up ALOT. Lean fast by quick iteration. Lean from expensive but calculated mistakes. Rocket lab is the complete opposite. We don't have the money so we have to think. While other companies spend billions and billions trying to get a rocket to orbit. The rklb neutron development and infrastructure is in the ballpark of $350 million. That is insanely impressive.
So there you go, is rocket lab the next space X? I would say No! they are very different organizations doing a few similar things, but in very different ways. Predominately, they pursue different markets with different products.
Will rocket lab be as big or bigger than space X in the long term? I would say it mite be, but space X has way more capital and a serious head start.
Merry Christmas tigers
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