Singapore strategy – 4Q25 and FY25 GDP finish on a high
📊Last Friday, Singapore released their GDP numbers that exceeded the government’s forecast for 2025
📕Macquarie Research (MQ) released a research report on 2 January 2026 that broke down the details driving the GDP numbers and also listed their top picks for Singapore in 2026. Of them, OCBC tops the list
👀Read more for the full article containing an excerpt of MQ’s report and important disclaimers:
📝Macquarie Warrants Singapore first posted about MQ’s upgraded view on OCBC on 18 November 2025 (https://warrants.com.sg/marketnews/highlight/todayhighlight/7767).
✳✴Since the post, the stock has risen 9% while trending OCBC call warrant OAEW (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/livematrix/OAEW) has gained 56.8% to $0.058 while trending put warrant UVTW (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/livematrix/UVTW ) has fallen 53.8% to $0.024.
Key points
– Singapore’s real GDP grew by 5.7% YoY in 4Q25, increasing from 4.3% in 3Q25. Growth was led by the manufacturing sector (15% YoY in 4Q25), based on Ministry of Trade and Industry’s advance estimates released today. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the economy expanded by 1.9%, easing from 2.4% growth in 3Q25.
– At 4.8% for the full year, GDP growth exceeded the government’s approximate 4.0% forecast for 2025.
Why it matters
• Goods Producing Industries grew 7.2% QoQ/12.3% YoY (vs +8.4% QoQ/+4.7% YoY in 3Q25). Singapore's manufacturing sector expanded 9.2% QoQ/+15.0 YoY (vs +11.1% QoQ/+4.9% YoY in 3Q25). Construction declined 0.4% QoQ but was up 4.2% YoY (vs +0.7% QoQ/+5.1% YoY in 3Q25); YoY was supported by an increase in both public and private sector construction.
• Services sector grew 0.8% QoQ/3.8% YoY (vs +0.5% QoQ/+4.1% YoY in 3Q25).
• Wholesale & Retail Trade and Transportation & Storage grew by 0.4% QoQ/3.9% YoY (vs -1.0% QoQ/+3.7% YoY in 3Q25). Wholesale trade YoY growth was led by machinery, equipment & supplies segment; transport & storage sector growth was driven by water and air transport.
• Information & Communications, Finance & Insurance, and Professional Services sector expanded 5.6% QoQ/4.2% YoY (vs +1.8% QoQ/+4.5% YoY in 3Q25). Information & communications growth was led by IT services & information services; professional services by head offices & business representative offices; finance & insurance by banking and insurance segments.
• Accommodation & Food Services, Real Estate, and Other Services declined by 0.5% QoQ/3.2% YoY (vs +1.2% QoQ/+4.0% YoY in 3Q25), supported by increased international visitor arrivals.
• In 2026, MTI expects GDP growth of 1.0-3.0%. The Government expects growth for most of Singapore’s key trading partners to be lower than 2025 as the impact of the US’ tariffs becomes more pronounced.
What now
MQ favours positioning in beneficiaries of a lower cost of capital, especially S-REITs, given sustained lower interest rates. Below are MQ’s top picks, all with an Outperform rating:
OCBC: $19.76 based on a Price to Book methodology
Jardine Matheson: US $80.00 based on a Sum of Parts methodology
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust: $2.60 based on a Discounted Cash Flow methodology DFI Retail Group: US$4.50 based on a Discounted Cash Flow methodology
Frasers Centrepoint Trust: $2.65 based on a Discounted Cash Flow methodology
First Resources: $2.30 based on a EV/EBITDA methodology
Comfort Delgro: $1.69 based on a Sum of Parts methodology
iFAST: 11.50 based on a Sum of Parts methodology
ParkwayLife REIT: $4.90 based on a Discounted Cash Flow methodology
Note: Macquarie Research is independent from the Warrants business, what the Macquarie Warrants desks quote from Macquarie Research may not reflect the complete analysis of Macquarie Research on the relevant company over time.
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Of the above names, Macquarie has call and put warrants over OCBC, while those interested to trade the overall Singapore market can consider trading with the below SIMSCI warrants. Warrants move in greater percentages than the underlyings, while requiring a smaller capital outlay and come with no margin calls. As an example, the trending $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ call warrant $OCBC Bk MB eCW260630(OAEW.SI)$ (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/HistoricalPerformance/OAEW) has increased 56.8% to SGD 0.058 (as of 905AM today) since its first date of listing on 18 November 2025, six times more than OCBC’s 9.1% gain during the same period.
Trending OCBC put warrant $OCBC Bk MB ePW260630(UVTW.SI)$ (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/HistoricalPerformance/UVTW) meanwhile, is down 53.8% to SGD 0.024 over the same period.
Macquarie listed new SIMSCI call and put warrants on 29 December 2025. Call warrant HUKW (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/HistoricalPerformance/HUKW) has risen 6.9% to SGD 0.124 as of 925AM this morning over the past week given SIMSCI’s 1.2% increase, while put warrant RIDW (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/HistoricalPerformance/RIDW) is down 11.5% to SGD 0.077.
Interested investors can use the Exposure Simulator tool to estimate the warrant price performance of any of the warrants based on your target exit levels in the stocks/indices.
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