Market Forecast 2026
Historically, the S&P 500 (a common proxy for "the market") has delivered positive annual total returns (including dividends) in approximately 73-75% of calendar years since 1928 (around 72 out of ~98 years, depending on exact data sources up to 2025). This long-term probability reflects periods of strong growth, recessions, wars, and bubbles, with negative years often clustered around economic downturns.For 2026 specifically, as of early January 2026, Wall Street consensus is overwhelmingly bullish. Major firms' year-end S&P 500 targets range from ~7,100 (Bank of America, implying ~4% gain) to 8,000+ (e.g., Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan upside case), with averages around 7,500-7,900 (implying 6-15% gains from late-2025 levels near ~6,900). Not a single major strategist surveyed by Bloomberg or FactSet predicts a decline, citing:Expected double-digit earnings growth (12-15% EPS rise to ~$300-320).
Ongoing AI investment boom.
Potential further Fed rate cuts.
Fiscal stimulus effects.
This suggests a high near-term probability (>90%) of positive returns based on current expert forecasts, though modest compared to the 16-24% gains in 2023-2025.However, risks could lower the odds:Elevated valuations (Shiller P/E >35-40, second-highest ever).
Potential inflation from policies/tariffs.
Labor market softening.
AI "show-me" phase if returns on investment disappoint.
A few contrarian views (e.g., GMO) see >50% chance of flat/negative due to concentration in expensive AI stocks and possible rotation.Overall, combining history (~74% base probability) with strong current consensus and supportive fundamentals, the probability of the market ending 2026 "green" (positive annual return) is roughly 80-85%. Predictions are inherently uncertain—markets can surprise—and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Diversification and long-term focus have historically improved outcomes.
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what are you?(Single choice)Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- GabrielleSusan·01-06 22:20I'm bullish on PLTR too, mate! [看涨]1Report