To The Moon

🚀 Is Space a Core Investment Theme for 2026?

From “Moonshots” to Infrastructure Plays

For years, space investing was treated as speculative — long timelines, weak economics, and too many promises.

That narrative is changing.

As governments accelerate spending on space-based infrastructure — communications, navigation, missile tracking, and Earth observation — space is starting to resemble defense + cloud + logistics, not science fiction.

The key shift?

👉 Execution now matters more than vision.

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🛰️ Rocket Lab: From Launch Provider to Space Prime Contractor

One company increasingly at the center of this shift is Rocket Lab (RKLB).

2025 execution highlights:

• 21 flawless launches — no failures, no delays

• Proven cadence, not one-off success

• End-to-end capability: launch + spacecraft + systems

But the real inflection point came with this:

💰 $816M U.S. Space Development Agency contract

This isn’t just revenue — it’s strategic validation.

Many compare this moment to Palantir’s early government contracts, which:

• Anchored long-term revenue visibility

• Built trust with defense agencies

• Created high switching costs

Rocket Lab is no longer “just launching rockets.”

It’s becoming a mission-critical infrastructure partner.

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🌍 Why Space Matters More in 2026 Than Before

Space is quietly becoming non-optional.

Governments now depend on satellites for:

• Missile detection & tracking

• Secure communications

• GPS & navigation

• Climate & surveillance data

At the same time:

• Launch costs are falling

• Satellite constellations are expanding

• Defense budgets are structurally rising

This creates a powerful setup:

Recurring government demand + limited proven suppliers

Unlike consumer tech, space rewards reliability, trust, and delivery, not hype.

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📊 Rocket Lab vs Other Space Plays

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Pros

• Proven launch track record

• Vertically integrated (launch + spacecraft)

• Deepening government relationships

• Clear path to recurring revenue

Risk

• Capital-intensive

• Execution must remain flawless

SpaceX (Private)

• Best-in-class, but inaccessible for most investors

Legacy defense primes

• Exposure exists, but space is not the core driver

Satellite pure plays

• Interesting, but often lack launch control or scale

👉 Rocket Lab sits in a rare middle ground:

Pure-play exposure + real execution + public-market access

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⚠️ Risks to the Space Theme

This is not a straight line:

• Budget cycles can shift

• Launch failures are unforgiving

• Valuations can outrun fundamentals

But unlike past cycles, today’s demand is structural, not speculative.

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🎯 Big Question for 2026 Investors

Every cycle has a core theme:

• 2020–2021: Software & cloud

• 2023–2024: AI & semiconductors

So what about 2026?

If space becomes:

• A defense priority

• A data infrastructure layer

• A strategic necessity

Then companies with real delivery capability may see a broad re-rating.

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🔍 My Take

Space is no longer about who has the best vision —

It’s about who can launch, deliver, and repeat.

Rocket Lab has crossed the hardest hurdle: credibility.

📌 If space becomes a core investment theme in 2026, ignoring execution-first players may be the real risk [Lovely]