To The Moon

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bullish $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ I’m not focused on surface-level equity narratives or thin, illiquid CDS prints. I’m focused on the hierarchy of capital, and what lenders with billions at risk are signalling through pricing. $CRWV snapped a six-day skid and is now trading around the $79–$80 zone, still capped below $90. That isn’t weakness in isolation. That’s compression, and compression only matters when it aligns with positioning and capital behaviour. 🧠 Positioning is getting crowded, not resolved Heavy Hold and Underperform ratings continue to dominate the Street, which is exactly where upgrade risk quietly builds. Short interest remains elevated and rising, now estimated around 15%+ of float depending on source, with hedging-dominant options flow still absorbing every spike via put buying. Options remain cheap, with SVI near 83% and sitting in a low percentile. That tells me hedging, not conviction, is controlling the tape. When structure holds, hedges become fuel. 📊 Structure across the attached charts is holding On both the 4H and 30m charts, price continues to respect rising Keltner structure while holding above the fast EMA cluster. The $78–$80 zone has acted as a stubborn liquidity pocket, repeatedly absorbing pressure without follow-through selling. Bollinger bands remain tight following the early-January impulse, signalling volatility expansion risk. A clean test of $90+ would be decisive, but the more important signal remains the persistence of higher lows despite sustained negative commentary. 💳 Credit behaviour matters more than equity noise CoreWeave’s Delayed Draw Term Loan facilities continue to tell a far clearer story about creditworthiness than any movement in illiquid CDS instruments. In July 2023, DDTL 1.0 priced at SOFR + 9.62%, translating to an effective rate near 15%. In July 2025, DDTL 3.0 priced at SOFR + 3.00%, or roughly 9% effective. That’s a ~600bps spread compression in just two years. Lenders do not reduce spreads that aggressively unless perceived risk has materially declined. More importantly, the latest amendment signed 31Dec25, effective immediately, further reinforces this signal. Minimum liquidity was lowered to $100M for Mar–Apr 2026, covenant testing was pushed out into 2026–27, and equity cure flexibility was expanded. This amendment directly relieves near-term balance-sheet pressure and extends execution runway at a time when data-centre delivery timing, not demand, is the primary constraint. Critically, DDTL 3.0 remains earmarked to fund CapEx tied to CoreWeave’s OpenAI contract, widely viewed as its riskiest exposure. Despite that, lenders are committing billions, accepting lower spreads, and accommodating timing delays. This is not distressed behaviour. It’s conditional confidence. 🟢 Premarket catalyst reduced near-term stress The amendment drove a sharp early-January surge, confirming how sensitive equity remains to credit clarity. It doesn’t erase leverage or execution risk, but it materially shifts timing, which markets consistently underprice. 🏦 Analyst dispersion reflects uncertainty, not clarity D.A. Davidson, historically one of the most sceptical firms on CoreWeave, upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and raised its price target to $68 from $36, citing OpenAI fundraising as a near-term catalyst while maintaining long-term equity caution. On the other side, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Overweight with a $131 price target, pointing to Blackwell GPU adoption, discounted valuation versus peers, and a path to full 2.9GW capacity by C27, supporting a potential $30B+ C28 revenue run-rate. That spread between $68 and $131 isn’t confusion. It’s unresolved uncertainty. Unresolved uncertainty is where volatility mispricing lives. 🖥️ Strategic alignment remains underappreciated CoreWeave effectively represents $NVDA’s largest position, accounting for over 90% of its portfolio exposure. Beyond OpenAI, revenue is largely derived from investment-grade counterparties. Yes, leverage remains elevated and CapEx is heavy. But the credit market continues to distinguish between execution timing and solvency, and it’s voting with real capital. 🔍 What I’m watching from here I’m watching whether price continues to defend the $78–$80 zone. I’m watching implied volatility behaviour into any test of $90. Most importantly, I’m watching lenders. Spreads, amendments, and capital commitments tend to move before narratives do. Closing thought I’m not dismissing leverage or execution risk. CoreWeave is capital-intensive and timing-sensitive. But when lenders lower spreads, ease covenants, and fund the riskiest contracts at scale, that signal deserves more weight than equity noise. The gap between credit confidence and equity fear is now wide enough that ignoring it feels riskier than acknowledging it. When structure holds, hedges pile up, and capital quietly stays committed, that’s often where the next move starts. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerObserver @Daily_Discussion @TigerWire