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$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$  📉📊 NFP Is the Catalyst, Not the Data: Markets vs. the Fed at a Critical Inflection 📊📉

08Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 09Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿

😴 A BORING DAY on Wall Street 

S&P 500: +0.01%

Dow: +0.5%

Nasdaq: -0.4%

📊 S&P 500 Movers Today:

Top Gainers:

$APA +9%

$SW +8.8%

Top Losers:

$STX -8.9%

$WDC -7.7%

Traders are bracing for tomorrow. Key economic reports and the potential Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs could shake things up!

🇺🇸 Polymarket now shows a 24% chance the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of President Trump’s tariffs. This is a major macro catalyst with real implications for equities, rates, commodities, and volatility heading into tomorrow.

📉 This jobs report could move every single asset class, and it’s not about job creation.

Here’s what’s brewing ahead of Friday’s NFP 👇

📅 1️⃣ The Setup: NFP hits at a critical moment

• December NFP estimate: +60,000

• Prior month: +64,000

• Unemployment est: 4.5% (from 4.6%)

• Wage growth est: 3.6% YoY

This lands right as markets and the Fed are openly disagreeing on cuts.

✂️ 2️⃣ The Twist: Powell says NFP is overstated

Powell flagged roughly 60K per month of payroll overcounting through 2025.

Apply that adjustment to December and the math changes fast.

“Real” payrolls look closer to flat.

That reframes the entire labour market narrative.

💸 3️⃣ Markets vs. Fed, a growing divergence

Markets are pricing:

• 2 cuts in 2026, first around April, second by September

The Fed is signalling:

• 1 cut in 2026, unchanged since June

That gap has to resolve. NFP is the trigger.

📉 4️⃣ Why equities are vulnerable here

A hot print with strong hiring and firm wages means:

• The Fed stays patient

• Cuts get pushed out

• Risk assets reprice lower

ISM data already hinted at accelerating services hiring, adding upside risk to the print.

💵 5️⃣ Cross-asset playbook if the data comes in hot

Historically the reaction is mechanical:

• USD up on yield support and haven demand

• Yields up as the front end reprices

• Gold down as real rates rise

• Bitcoin weaker in risk-off

• Equities red as cuts are delayed

This isn’t FUD. It’s macro mechanics.

📊 6️⃣ What a soft print would signal

If NFP disappoints, flat or negative on an adjusted basis:

• Markets feel validated

• The cut timeline pulls forward

• Risk assets rip into the weekend

• USD fades

Positioning already leans toward dovish confirmation.

🔥 Bottom line

NFP isn’t just about employment, it’s about who’s right, the Fed or the market. The estimate sits at +60K, but Powell’s own adjustment framework pulls that closer to flat. The Fed wants one cut in 2026, while markets are pricing two. If the data pushes cuts out, stocks may stumble as risk reprices. If it confirms a slowdown, risk could run hard. This single print has the power to set the Q1 macro tone in one shot.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀